Obama Wins Mississippi, But Don't Look for a Fall Repeat

[Herman Munster]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/thenation/20080312/cm_thenation/45297502

The Nation -- The headline from Barack Obama's win in Mississippi is another good one for the Illinois senator: He paced New York Senator Hillary Clinton by an impressive 58-40 margin, taking a clear majority of the delegates.

Unfortunately, the details behind those numbers are not so good for Obama.

While results from many states have suggested that Obama's candidacy might really be transcending old voting patterns, there is no such suggestion to be found in the results from this corner of the deep south.

Among the 50 percent of Mississippi primary voters identified in exit polls as African Americans, Obama won a striking 90-10 margin.

Among the 48 percent identified as white, Clinton won by an only slightly less striking 74-21 margin. Among the 37 percent of the electorate identified as white protestants, Clinton's margin went to 76-18. Among white over the age of 60 -- who accounted for almost one-fifth of the primary electorate, Clinton was favored 82-16.

These numbers point to a continuing, very real and very serious racial divide in a bellwether state of the old Confederacy. And it should be noted that the divide in Mississippi is similar to the one seen in the neighboring state of Alabama on February 5.

The exit poll data provides little support for the argument that nominating Obama would get Democrats back in the game in the Republican-leaning south this fall.

[NJSecularist]

1. Mississippi is not a bellweather state.

It's actually a state that is so radically different from most other states in the South with its "incredible" racial divide. Not even Tennessee features the type of racial divide that Mississippi features.

[Frances]

2. Agree

Obama will need to get the traditional blue states plus some swing states.

[provis99]

has any Democrat won Mississippi since 1944?

I don't think even Carter did, did he? The Democrats can win without the Deep South anyways. The South began to realize this in the 1970's, and that's why they came up with Super Tuesday during the party primaries, to combat their declining national importance.

[Carrieyazel]

10. Jimmy Carter won it in 1976. Hard to believe isn't it?

[Spider Jerusalem]

22. Mississipi went for Carter in '76.

And Adlai Stevenson in '52 and '56. Apart from that, it went to Strom Thurmond in '48, Harry Byrd in '60, Goldwater in '64, Wallace in '68, Nixon in '72, and Republican in every election since 1980.

[ingac70]

30. Carter won Mississippi. in '76. n/t

[Cali_Democrat]

3. I don't think any reasonable democrats thought states like Mississippi were in play

However, a southern state like Virginia is definitely in play.

[skipos]

4. Is the black vote why he won WY, VT or WI

or any of the other slew of states he has won?

[anonymous171]

8. Don't forget WA!

[FARAFIELD]

17. Yeah Idaho to

I think my white 72 year old mom voting in coeur d'alene put him over the top

[tekisui]

5. The Democrats get to choose our Nominee.

Democrats of every state. And they are choosing Obama. This is the Primary. I don't know anyone who expects and Dem Nominee to win MS in the GE.

THis is a red herring bullshit distraction from Obama thumping HIllary, yet again.

[tularetom]

6. You think they'd vote for HILLARY?

On the other hand, Obama stands a very good chance of getting elected in some of the "purple" states that he has carried as well as the bluer states that went for hillarity.

[scheming daemons]

7. 45% of the state is black... all Obama needs is 25% of whites to defeat McCain....

Mississippi is *IN PLAY* if Obama is the Nominee.

[Herman Munster]

9. sorry you are delusional

in a general election, I'd be surprised if Obama breaks double digits in the white vote in MS when all the republicans come out to vote for real.

[scheming daemons]

13. He got 27% of white Democrats.... some of the 72% that went for Hillary will go for him......

...and black registrations will be through the roof.

[NJSecularist]

19. The Democrats are lucky to get 15% white support

I don't think you understand... white democrats are a small portion of the white electorate in Mississippi. The majority of them are Republican. And overall, election after election, 90% of whites vote Republican.

There is absolutely no way any Democrat wins Mississippi, and for you to try to say otherwise is just wishful thinking.

[FARAFIELD]

21. AND.....?

are you saying Hillary would win? GO ahead and say she will, with a straight face. Thats like saying Huckabee did poorer with WHITE VOTERS in California. Neither could win California

[Bake]

35. No way either Obama or Clinton would win MS.

No. freakin'. way.

Bake

[Zynx]

15. First of all, it is 38%. Secondly, we already get 90% of the black vote in MS.

Thirdly, we typically only get 15% of the white vote. How will Obama improve that?

[NJSecularist]

16. You are wrong.

In 2004, they consisted of 35% of the population. And Kerry won them 90-10.

But whites consist of 65% of the population and Bush won them by an equal margin.

There is absolutely no way Mississippi is in play for any Democrat.

[Zynx]

26. Thank you.

[SoCalDem]

11. Seeing as how the last time we won it was in '76, we do not/did not

expect to win it in the GE.. There just are not enough dems in the state to counteract the bigoted republicans....yet

As the old die-hard "southern heritage" people leave the planet , and younger people become the largest demographic, that could change

[ecstatic]

12. Help me out here: When you guys cite all the statistics about racist whites

what is it that you want us to do? To dump Obama to appease racists? What do you hope to accomplish with your posts? Honestly!

[GrandmaJones7]

23. Racists?!?

Would you PLEASE stop using that word?!?!? Look - it was only ONE comment by a single member of Hillary's staff - that's it.

Those of you who keep bringing it up remind me of Senator McCarthy and his famous witch hunt - only this time its not the communists being hunted!

[FARAFIELD]

14. UMMM

did anyone here think that a DEM would win MS? Your are not trying to say that HIllary would win MIssissippi? Ill make you a bet if you are willling. Ill bet you $100 that Hillary wouldnt win Arkansas if she was the nominee and Ill throw in that she can get even 45% of the vote in MS. What a misleading post headline.

[panader0]

18. I call BS With his votes and the sane Hillary supporters, he wins Miss.

[PerfectSage]

20. The south won't vote for a Munster. lol

The Nation -- The headline from Barack Obama's win in Mississippi is another good one for the Illinois senator: He paced New York Senator Munster by an impressive 58-40 margin, taking a clear majority of the delegates.

Unfortunately, the details behind those numbers are not so good for Obama.

While results from many states have suggested that Obama's candidacy might really be transcending old voting patterns, there is no such suggestion to be found in the results from this corner of the deep south.

Among the 50 percent of Mississippi primary voters identified in exit polls as African Americans, Obama won a striking 90-10 margin.

Among the 48 percent identified as white, Munster won by an only slightly less striking 74-21 margin. Among the 37 percent of the electorate identified as white protestants, Munster's margin went to 76-18. Among white over the age of 60 -- who accounted for almost one-fifth of the primary electorate, Munster was favored 82-16.

These numbers point to a continuing, very real and very serious racial divide in a bellwether state of the old Confederacy. And it should be noted that the divide in Mississippi is similar to the one seen in the neighboring state of Alabama on February 5.

The exit poll data provides little support for the argument that nominating Obama would get Democrats back in the game in the Republican-leaning south this fall.




?t=1205294207

[jackson_dem]

24. Axlerod himself said Obama would win the South

Now Obamites are acting as if the idea that SuperBama was alleged to have the key to unlocking the South, something no Democrat who was not from the South has done since 1964, never was floated by the Obama machine.

[Carrieyazel]

25. Axelrod is delusional. No way Obama (or Hillary for that matter) will win any Southern states.

And if he seriously believes that, I doubt his capacity to run a winning general election campaign this year.

[bluestateguy]

27. That's what makes Obama different than your Establishment candidate

Obama will try. He may fail, but he will try and make the Republicans earn those electoral votes.

Hillary will simply write those states off and hand them to Republicans on a silver platter.

[Beacool]

28. This race HAS become about race.

Blacks have consistently voted overwhelmingly for Obama and now, at least in MS, whites are doing the same for Hillary.

White backlash???

[bjnumb9]

29. Hmmph, well I live in Tennessee

I can tell you unequivocally that racism is alive and well in a lot of the South, unfortunately. It goes both ways, no doubt. The "racial divide" that this article focuses on will not be nearly as potent in approximately 45 other states, and the fact that the article you posted does not hit on that is ignoring the 500 lb. gorilla in the room.

Also, I wanted to point this out - "Among white over the age of 60 -- who accounted for almost one-fifth of the primary electorate, Clinton was favored 82-16." Hmm. First of all, I didn't know there WERE any white people over the age of 60 that are Democrats in Mississippi (Limbaugh listeners?), and second of all, this goes back to what I was saying about the South - racism is alive and well and more prevalent in the older generations of white Southerners. Duh. Hopefully I'm not revealing any huge surprises for anyone out there.

And, as almost every major poll reveals, Obama is favored by more over McCain (5.2%) than Clinton (1.7%). So, I guess my question is, what's the point?

http://realclearpolitics.com/polls/

[swag]

31. In the latest Obama-McCain SUSA matchup (30,000 surveyed),

Obama beats McCain with more electoral votes than Hillary.

[Carrieyazel]

32. Way too early to put up electoral maps now. I seriously doubt Ohio is leaning Obama.

And Wisconsin and Iowa aren't solid anything.

[swag]

33. I eagerly await your announcement of when one may put up electoral maps.

Please do keep us all posted.

Thanks!

[Mooney]

34. So HRC losing MS is a sign of the strength of her candidacy?

I'm the first to admit that Obama probably won't carry any deep south states, but why is this somehow good for the person who got trounced by 18 points?