Its going to be almost impossible for Hillary to win, heres why:

[Endangered Specie]

Okay, ive been playing around with this little thing on forbes that predicts the delegate count based on what percentages each candidate wins the remaining states by:
http://www.forbes.com/2008/02/27/obama-clinton-election-oped-cx_jb_0227delegates.html


Based on the elections today, we can enter 60-40 (all numbers are Obama-Hillary) for Mississippi.
Also, I filled in the other states as the following:
55-45 in NC (another southern state that Obama is polling 10+ points ahead in)
53-47 in Indiana (Obama is polling very well there too, but for the sake of argument Im giving Hillary a few extra points)
60-40 in SD (big caucus western state, OBama always does well there)
53-47 in Montana (another big state, but not a caucus, so will make it close)
50-50 Guam (toss up only 4 delegates)
55-45 Oregon (big caucus state again)

That leaves PA, Puerto Rico, West Virginia and Kentucky
for those states, I give Hillary a big win:
40-60
even though Kentucky and PA are caucus states

Assuming those results, Obama only needs 46% of the remaining delegates, where Hillary would need... 72% of the remaining delegates.

Its even worse if you allow obama to tie in caucus kentucky 50-50, then he only needs: 44%, she needs: 74%

If instead of 40-60 in those states you have it 45-55, then he only needs: 40% she needs: 77% of the remaining superD's...

Given the current mood of the superdelegates, such a swing is unlikely.


Well there you have it, I figured we could use some actual *NUMBERS* and *LOGIC* on this board, rather than the usual screaming and hottin n hollerin. Feel free to reanalyze/criticize :)

[FARAFIELD]

1. correction

You said KEntucky and PA are caucus states they are primaries, or maybe thats what you meant.

[Endangered Specie]

2. oops, I thought those "C"s meant caucus, they instead mean closed

oh well, hope everyone enjoys tearing up my figures then!

[quakerboy]

17. Yup

that changes things a bit. Oregon is a primary not a caucus, as well.

[grantcart]

3. It has been that way since Texas but they refuse to comprehend it

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

4. Most thinking people realized this weeks ago.

[EmperorHasNoClothes]

5. (shhhhhhh.... don't tell hillary)

[panader0]

9. The monster has no clothes.

[annie1]

6. some of these states are months away, opinions (and therefore polls) change.

h

[annie1]

8. just out of curiousity, add fla in there, can you tell me what the popular vote...

will be in total? just curious, it's a real question.

[Spider Jerusalem]

16. Hillary down by almost 80k in popular vote WITH both Florida and Michigan.

[Spider Jerusalem]

11. Math doesn't. Not as much as Hillary needs it to.

The handwriting is on the wall. Apparently some people need a spotlight shining on it, too.

[XemaSab]

13. You're right.

Obama can close the gap in Appalachia. :thumbsup:

[AtomicKitten]

7. Your analysis isn't being sensitive to Hillary's needs.

[ORDem]

10. Oregon is not a caucus state, but Obama should do well here. n/t

[XemaSab]

12. I've been ALL OVER that counter in the last week

And the numbers are NOT THERE for her at all.

I gave Obama a conservative 55% in Oregon, SD, Montana, and NC (even though I suspect he could pull 60+ in any of those states).

That leaves her with Pennsylvania, Guam, Indiana, WV, Kentucky, and Puerto Rico to make up 147 points.

Some of these states I think she will win, and some I really have no sense for. But these are the states she NEEDS to win to close Obama's lead.

All else being equal, she would have to take 78% in these 6 elections to go into the convention even with Obama.

If you factor the superdelegates into the equation, she would have to take a little over 64% in every election PLUS 64% of the superdelegates to win the nomination. She's only gotten over 60% in Arkansas so far, so the odds of this happening are very, very, very small.

(Glad to see someone else is playing with the numbers here :D )

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

14. 78% conservatively.

:wow:

[XemaSab]

15. That's with the assumption that Obama takes OR, MT, SD, and NC

with 55%.

And I see nothing that indicates he won't. :D

[quakerboy]

18. Be carefull about Oregon

I think its closer than people realise. We are next to Washington, and similar in many ways. But we are a primary. And Obama only won the WA primary 51/49. Then again, that everyone knew that didn't count for anything so there wasnt so much of a GOTV attempt by the campaigns.