Penn Primary Polls - Here's the Question

[autorank]

Here’s the question.

In national polls, Obama has a 61%/28% & 61% 27% favorable in a two choice question and 45%/23%/18% and climbing favorable when people are allowed to answer “undecided” as a third choice.

In the same national polls, Clinton has a 55/40% and 51/42% two choice question favorable/unfavorable and a 35%/43%/18% when people are allowed to answer “undecided.”

In Pennsylvania, the average of five polls is 49%-35% Clinton over Obama.

So how come we have a guy with 61% favorable nationally getting 35% of the votes in Pennsylvania polling?

Or how can a guy, in a three choice question of favorability, get far less in state polls than he gets in national polls - 45% favorable when undecideds are factored in?

And how can Clinton, who is just 35%/43% favorable/unfavorable when undecideds are allowed, getting well above her positive rating when 43% just can’t stand her?

Fascinating…


Composite Polls-Real Clear Politics

OBAMA
http://pollingreport.com/o.htm

FAVORABLE/UNFAVORABLE:
Newsweek, Mar. 5-6, Favorable 61%, Unfavorable, 28%
LA Times/Bloomberg, Feb 21-25 Favorable 61%, Unfavorable 27%



CLINTON
http://pollingreport.com/C2.htm#Hillary

FAVORABLE/UNFAVORABLE:

Newsweek, Mar. 5-6, Favorable 56%, Unfavorable, 40%
LA Times/Bloomberg, Feb 21-25 Favorable 51%, Unfavorable 42%

[quantass]

1. They just dont know who he is -- Give him time to spread the word -- those values will change.

Hillary has the name brand recognition but as we've seen in every state she tends to lose her margins when Obama begins campaignng and getting his name out.

[DemVet]

2. He may come up a few percentage points, but the industrialized ...

working class sections of PA will still side with Hillary. They always have. She is set to trounce Obama's butt in PA.

[BumRushDaShow]

11. The city of Philadelphia and its suburbs can override the entire state and

has done so numerous times in the past. Clinton should not count any chickens.

[DemVet]

13. Not likely. She's leading by almost 20 points. n/t

[billbuckhead]

3. Hillary does very well with the elderly and white working class people

Her opponent has alienated them.

[autorank]

4. How did Obama alienate white people?

:shrug:

[Hepburn]

7. By being black...

...with some people, unfortunately, that is all it takes.

[autorank]

9. That's about all I could figure out. He won Wyoming and Mississippi on the SAME Day!

It's interesting, he's winning mid West and the farm belt, so to speak.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

10. Two different days. Sat-Wyoming, Tue-Mississippi

Still a valid point, though.

[pampango]

12. It's not in Obama's interest to alienate white people since he knows that "transcending" race

is his only chance to win the nomination and the election. Yet some here argue that he does not understand this, because he seeks to "racialize" the primaries in states like South Carolina and Mississippi, apparently unaware of the cost this might entail in the larger white electorate in other states.

If you look at who benefits from stoking white fears and resentments for the rest of the nomination process, these benefits do not accrue to Obama. The demographics of Pennsylvania favor Clinton and with a little fear and resentment thrown in, she could win big. Even better from her point of view, if the superdelegates can be convinced that a Black candidate cannot win the GE, they will be likely to nominate her regardless of delegate counts or popular vote totals.

[Upton]

5. Those older whites are stuck in their ways

race is definitely a factor. Then you have women who would vote for HRC if she was the female reincarnation of Atilla the Hun.

[jakem]

6. IF?

:shrug:

[Hepburn]

8. What do you mean..."if"??? n/t