Closed Primary. 6 weeks of concentrated campaigning. Pennsylvania is a crystal clear test.

[rug]

No crossovers. No dropin, soundbite events.

Let's see who Democrats want as their nominee.

[scheming daemons]

1. Fine... as long as Rendell butts out..... but since he won't, it's not an even playing field....

...and you know it.


Rendell's machine is powerful in PA.

[rug]

3. Yeah, that must be it.

:eyes:

[scheming daemons]

11. Obviously, you don't live in PA......

Rendell = Daley

[rug]

14. Doesn't Daley support Obama?

[scheming daemons]

35. If Daley was the governor of PA, that would be relevant to this discussion of yours...

...

[rug]

42. I thought you didn't like machines.

[scheming daemons]

48. I don't... but this is YOUR OP, and it is about PA... and since....

you've personally decided that PA is the ONLY state that matters in determining the nomination, then the Rendell machine is the ONLY machine that matters to this discussion.


Typical of Hillary supporters, you are changing the subject... YOUR subject... when it suits you.

[rug]

54. You mentioned Daley. I just felt an overwhelming urge to be polite.

Must be the atmosphere in here.

[scheming daemons]

68. Let me put it a polite way then.... Rendell is to PA what Daley is to Chicago/IL.

And if some Obama supporter came on and said "All that matters is Illinois"... you would be CORRECT in saying that it is not a level playing field for Clinton, since Obama would have the "Daley machine" working for him...


Get it now?



Obama and Clinton are like two high school football teams playing a game in which the head referee has a son playing on one of the teams.

Obama has to beat Clinton *AND* Rendell in PA.... and fast Eddie has a built-in home-court advantage.

[scheming daemons]

74. Addendum......

...and why this DOESN'T MATTER in the GE.... is because Rendell will be working for Obama, if he's the nominee, against McCain.

So then.... Obama will have the home-court advantage that Hillary has for the Primary.

[rug]

82. So Rendell is good then? You're confusing me.

[DadOf2LittleAngels]

91. He never said Rendell is bad

Youre very obtuse...

He said: When you have the strongest political machine in a state backing you its *not* a level playing field. It was true in Il when Delay backed Obama and it will be true in PA with Rendell backing Clinton..

[scheming daemons]

94. I never said he was bad... I said his machine gives Hillary a big advantage in PA...

...so it is NOT the level playing field that you described in your OP.


Again... to summarize:

1. You said PA is a good barometer of who should win the nomination, because it is a fair fight.

2. I said .... bullshit. Rendell's machine makes it anything BUT a fair fight.



Rendell's machine gives WHOEVER HE IS SUPPORTING an EXTREME advantage in this state. Dems don't win in this state without his support.


Our Pittsburgh mayor, Luke Ravenstahl, is being held over a barrel by Fast Eddie. Ravenstahl is 28 years old... the youngest mayor of a large city in America. He needs a new arena for the Penguins... 1/3 of the money for that arena is coming from the state... the ground hasn't broken on the arena yet. Until Fast Eddie signs the checks, Ravenstahl is UNABLE to come out and support Obama publicly, like he wants to (and has indicated to people privately).

Not if Ravenstahl wants any future in PA politics, that is.

Eddie will DESTROY Ravenstahl's career in its infancy if Ravenstahl endorses, works for, or campaigns for Obama.

Luke knows this.


That's the power of Rendell.

[rug]

95. OK, I'll put that down as Rendell is good. Thank you for the clarification.

[scheming daemons]

104. And the "Rendell-effect" invalidates the supposition of your OP.

If Clinton wins PA by less than 10%, it is a CRUSHING defeat for her.

...and for Eddie.

[WinkyDink]

143. If this were about Clinton, you'd be calling for the "waaaahhhhmbulance". Suck it up.

[tigereye]

45. Rendell is not like Dailey

I do live in PA - sure he's got power, but.... I don't think of him as corrupt...

[scheming daemons]

50. He has the same political machine and ground game.....and he'll be using the PA taxpayers' funds to

...work for Hillary in the next six weeks.

[tigereye]

forgot to add which Dailey are you talking about

;)


it should be interesting, since Obama has Move-On support and they helped Kerry win the state in the last Pres. election. They had excellent organization.

[scheming daemons]

70. They only had excellent organization because they were working WITH Rendell......

Rendell's power dwarfs that of MoveOn in PA.

[tigereye]

113. we'll see

it should be intriguing!

[Yurovsky]

55. Ed Rendell is a crook, plain & simple ...

and way too cozy with the corporate fucks that have been shafting average Americans for far too long.

[Penndems]

137. You must have Ed Rendell mixed up with Bob Asher, Lynn Swann's mentor

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-WBT7WkPMhw

**************************************************************
If you think The Guv's a crook, please provide proof. I only hear that line from Rendell-haters, and they're usually Republicans.

[Lucinda]

129. Kerry and Kennedy are powerful in Mass...their candidate didn't win

No reason to think Obama can't win PA

[WinkyDink]

141. He's the da*n Governor; why SHOULD he "butt...out"???

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

2. Who Pennsylvania Democrats want, you mean.

Big difference.

[rug]

5. 6 weeks for both of them to pour in their best efforts. No distractions. National attention.

If he's got a ground game, now's the time to see it.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

21. He'll be fine.

It neighbors Clinton's state. Which is worth 5-8 points. And that'll probably be the margin.

Meanwhile, for 6 weeks, McSame skates and nothing will have changed vis-a-vis the Democratic nomination.

[rug]

26. With 6 weeks of national attention it's prime for each candidate to define Democrats versus McCain

The party will be fine.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

39. Agreed.

But the PA results are only a part of "who Democrats want."

4% based on population.

[Buzz Clik]

34. And if Hillary wins every Pennsylvania delegate, she'll tie Obama.

[rug]

44. And the convention will decide.

[Buzz Clik]

49. LOL! You really think she'll win every delegate in Pennsylvania?

This will be decided by the delegate count prior to the convention. In Denver, it will merely be formalized.

[rug]

56. You really think Obama will win it before Denver?

:silly:

[Buzz Clik]

58. Check the tally.

[rug]

69. I did. I don't see 2025 on either side.

[Bake]

140. Funny, they keep talking about the math

But like you, I don't see 2025 on either side ...

Bake

[democrattotheend]

114. She can't...she didn't fill the slate

If she won 100%, I think she would not get the full amount of possible delegates because she failed to fill the entire slate. Can someone confirm?

[cali]

41. If you don't ,know that he has ground game, you're completely

blinded by partisanship. He's made up huge gaps in state after state. Oh, and PA represents PA, not all dems across the U.S. Typical hillaryite spin: Only PA counts. Bullshit. If she doesn't blow him out of the water by 20+ pts there, she's done.

[rug]

47. Moving the goalposts again, aren't you, cali? I thought she needed to win by 87%.

[cali]

60. Your post makes no sense whatsofuckingever

and I've never said anything about 87%. I've been consistent. I think she'll win PA, but not by more than 10 pts or so. And that just isn't enough. Two weeks later there's NC, another large state and he'll win there. She'll take KY and WV, but again that won't make much of a dent in his overall popular vote lead or his pledged delegate lead, and by the time PA rolls around, you can expect to see him with the SD lead as well.

[rug]

71. You're right. She has to win 65% of every vote and cure cancer by June 1 or she's toast.

[DadOf2LittleAngels]

93. Where I would set the bar for Obama to be successful

Right now they can both focus on PA but Hill starts with a huge lead (largely because the states political machine backs her) Should Obama be able to close from down twenty to within 5-10% it will show that he can do allot of damage to an entrenched machine in a few weeks...

[rug]

99. The bar for both is 2025. Aprill 22 will be a big boost to that bar for the winner.

[scheming daemons]

108. Um.... the most Hillary will gain in delegates in this state is 15 to 20. Won't boost shit.

She'll still be more than 100 down after PA.... and then NC and IN will wipe out her gains in PA.

[DadOf2LittleAngels]

112. Who will be *closer* to that bar after 4/22

Hillary or Obama? My money is on Obama will he closer to 2025 than Hillary does and he has a much better environment going forward than Hillary does after that. Neither of them will get to 2025 straight up but Obama will (probably) have (1) More delegates, (2) More votes, (3) More states..

If the supers want to go against that.. Lord help the dems come November..

[Bullet1987]

4. Obama will have to run up the numbers in places

like Philly and Pittsburgh.

[rug]

8. Yup, and make significant inroads elsewhere.

[BonnieJW]

31. I was reading yesterday that Philly belongs to O.

[Unsane]

6. If by "concentrated campaigning" you mean Clinton's intentional ignition of a race war

Everything, apparently, is fair game at this point.

[rug]

10. Go alert yourself.

[marshall]

89. She knows she's lost the black vote to Obama

Now she's going after the angry white man and woman vote--the Geraldine Ferraros who think they are victims of reverse racism and accuse the system of allowing blacks to unfairly leap over more deserving whites in the food chain. The man or woman who believes they were denied a promotion at work because it went to a black man or woman will be identifying with Hillary and her minions who claim that Obama has snatched her birthright from her.

[rug]

101. So, Clinton voters are angry white people screwed by affirmative action? You're disgusting.

[marshall]

111. That's not what I said

I was talking about Hillary's current strategy, which seems to be to alienate the black vote. The ONLY sense that can be drawn from that is that she is attracting the (hopefully few) voters in PA who agree with Ferraro's opinion.

And that is what I think is disgusting.

[GalleryGod]

124. Hillary & Gerry : Purrrrrrfect Together !

Read this and throw up ! 300 interviews;all footnoted; The Big Girl and The Slick One are MADE for each other.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

7. she will probably win by 5-10% not that big a win

Obama will get enough delegates from PA

[rug]

12. This thread is not for premature spin. Save it for 4/23.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

27. Yet you place spin in your OP.

:wtf:

Let's see who Democrats want as their nominee.

Equating PA to All Democrats leaves the taste of straw in my mouth. It's a cumulative process not a snapshot of one state.

[rug]

37. The accumulation of the whole primary season will be felt in Pennsylvania.

Because the candidates are so close, with Obama needing a knockout and Clinton needing a strong win, the importance of Pennsylvania is inordinate.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

46. Just as Texas and Ohio's importance was inordinate?

Yet they changed nothing. The math is inexorable.

[rug]

57. Yes, 2025 is math.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

66. Why don't the rest of the candidates jump back in then?

They won't make it to 2024, either.

They don't lead in any of the meaningful statistical categories, either.


:shrug:

[rug]

75. That's a rational point.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

85. Thank you. For you:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5038719

[DadOf2LittleAngels]

100. Define strong win?

And why *exactly* does obama need a knockout? is there a significant advantage for Hillary after PA?

Generally the person in a fight (to extend your analogy) who needs a knockout is the one who is losing late in the fight. Obama is winning and playing rope-a-dope with Clinton. Hillay and her surrogates (like Ferraro) are playing right into it..

[Rosa Luxemburg]

43. see you on 4/23 then

[DadOf2LittleAngels]

96. Well if I would trust anyone to know spin

It would be the hillbots...

$StateObamaWon doesn't matter, delegate lead does not matter, popular votes don't matter, caucuses don't matter, .....

[rug]

103. . . . . Pennsylvania doesn't matter . . . .

[DadOf2LittleAngels]

109. the only people saying *x* state does not matteer

are the hillbots..

Of course PA matters but so does NC and Indiana which together are just as populous and carry as many delegates... My guy is going to win some and going to lose some but I wont piss off the contest he does not win as unimportant. Ill look at the whole picture, you might want to try it sometime..

[GalleryGod]

125. Since 2 weeks ago Obama was down 25% ; Maybe they can get Mayor Frank L. Rizzo to come back

from his grave to once more shout, "Vote WHITE !!!" at Hillary Rallies

[GalleryGod]

126. Too Bad for Hillary, Big Frank is dead...

He would've made a great campaign manager for her newest divisive strategy in PA.

[ORDem]

9. What are you talking about? Hillary said that OH wants her on the

top of the ticket. That isn't enough for you?

:silly:

[rug]

15. Thank you for the most irrelevant comment of the morning.

So far.

[NDambi]

13. Hillary might not make it to PA, remember she's suppose to release her

Tax returns from 2000-2006 on or about April 15th.....and since she's dragging her feet, she might be trying to hide something that will hurt her chances on April 22. If she tries to put it off any further...there is going to be a feeding frenzy and that may hurt her...

[rug]

16. Uh huh. The national election will be decided by tax returns and Spitzer's dick.

How about we discuss policy and issues?

[Hawkowl]

128. Elections aren't decided by issues.

If they were, shrub never would've been elected. It's all about impressions and triggering primitive simian emotions.

And after reading this thread, are you really this obtuse? Or just deliberately incomprehensibly ignorant?

[NDambi]

131. I'm similar to your mama...

[NDambi]

130. Spitzer's dick is a very dirty tool...he's been dipping and without condoms too..

You don't want me to even post what I think about Hillary's "dirty deeds!"

Sorry, if you don't think her and Billy Boy's tax returns are an issue...or won't effect how people feel or vote... truth people vote based on all kind of things..trust, transpareny and honesty being some...something Hilda knows nothing about..

As far as policy...it's a policy that politicians release their tax returns and not try to shuck and jive (lol) .

[quantass]

38. Dont worry Hillary wont Release Them -- I guarantee it!

[NDambi]

132. Yeah...she's hiding something and her minions know it..which why they go all bonkers

when you mention it.

[theboss]

17. Why didn't we just let PA choose the nominee from the beginning

We could have saved ourselves a lot of heartache.

You know, I grew up in Pittsburgh. And frankly, I don't want my relatives having this level of input.

[rug]

18. Sorry about your family.

[Name removed]

19. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Name removed]

22. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Shakespeare]

33. Only the ones he disagrees with.

:eyes:

[endarkenment]

20. That test was super tuesday.

Everything since then has been a destructive exercise in denial.

[rug]

24. That was one test which was at best a standoff.

Besides the limtations of a serious campaign spread over so many states, the crossover rules left, at best a murky result.

That's not the case in Pennsylvania.

[endarkenment]

32. Whatever. Paddle harder. nt.

[Joe the Revelator]

51. So super tuesday was "one test" but PA is much more important?

Not quite sir. PA is a must win for Hillary only, and even if she wins it, she's still out of the race. Funny how that works.

[rug]

59. As things have turned out, it is nearly as important.

[DadOf2LittleAngels]

105. How so

Are more delegates up for grabs in PA then were available all of super tuesday?

[skipos]

23. I love it.

When Hillary loses Iowa, talk about the pledged delegates. When Hillary loses most of the pledged delegates, talk about the the blue states. When Hillary loses most of the blue states, talk about a single state.

Yes, it is ALL ABOUT PA. The other 49 states don't matter (because Obama was won most of them). The pledged delegates don't matter (because Obama has won most of them).

[rug]

28. You're right. Pennsylvania doesn't matter. Nothing since Super Tuesday matters.

What is the meaning of life?

[theboss]

29. They matter in a sort of general sense

But Obama is going to win the delegate count regardless of what happens from this moment forward.

[mod mom]

25. They can switch affiliation up to 30 days before the primary-it's 6 weeks away.

[rug]

40. That's true but it's better than walking in after listening to Limbaugh and asking for a ballot.

[Buzz Clik]

30. ... let's see who the Democrats in PENNSYLVANIA want for their nominee.

Nice try, though.

[rug]

61. Indeed, let's see.

[Johnny__Motown]

36. there are already crossovers.. less than crystal clear

[rug]

62. Far less than any contest to date.

[BeyondGeography]

52. Nice try

Pennsylvania will be just another primary in the end, just like all the others that were supposed to determine this thing.

Two weeks after Pennsylvania, there's North Carolina and Indiana which, combined, are jsut as important to this race as Pennsylvania. And don't bore me with that "must win swing state" horseshit. The result of two Democrats running against each other in the same state says almost nothing about the loser's ability to carry that state in the general.

[rug]

64. It says the same about the winner's ability.

But this contest is for the nomination of the Democratic Party. Whoever that is will be the president.

[BeyondGeography]

73. Say hello to President Obama then

Cuz your girl is done.

[rug]

77. My "girl" is a Democratic United States Senator.

Try to stay out of Hooters on election day.

[BeyondGeography]

80. fyi

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6V9JBItfTZI

[GOTV]

53. PA != USA, just so you know n/t

[rug]

65. Pennsylvania doesn't count.

But you know that already.

[GOTV]

76. You got it wrong again. It counts in proportion to its delegate allocation

which is less than the total.

i.e. PA != USA

One might say

PA < USA

But one thing that is NOT true is the implication of your OP that PA = USA

[rug]

78. Read up on the difference between an implication and an inference.

[GOTV]

86. Giving up? Or do you admit PA != USA? n/t

[rug]

88. GOTV = 0

[GOTV]

117. And that explains your confusion about PA speaking for the nation. n/t

[rug]

138. That your posts have empty content?

:shrug:

[TexasLady]

63. That is SO good to know. I hadnt done my homework

so didnt know if it was closed or not.
open primaries SUCK

[cindyw]

67. This isn't a semi-final. The delegates are cumulative. Obama only needs 45%.

[rug]

79. So if Clinton gets 56% she wins?

Don't tell cali.

[scheming daemons]

98. if she gets 56% of THE REMAINING 10 STATES, she wins.....

PA is less than 20% of the remaining delegates.

[cindyw]

146. Well now it's 65% of EVERY state, not just Penn

[Tarc]

72. A shame they all weren't like this

Lop off the republican meddlers, the undemocratic caucuses, and the "OMG Obama is, like, so HOT" iPod types who take advantage of same-day registration and this would be a much different race.

[peacebaby3]

81. I disagree. No candidate can win the GE with just the vote of Democrats.

There are a lot of people who are very liberal but don't register as Dems. The only way to win the GE is to have the independent vote and as much crossover as possible.

Dems are very different based on their region as well. Do you think a Berkeley,CA Dem is anything like a PA Dem? One state voting in a closed primary doesn't show the will of all Democrats.

The campaigning that is going on now is really hurting the Democratic party and any nominee's chances in the GE.

[rug]

87. The GE candidate does need both. But this is a Democratic primary.

The party needs a candidate who can coherently argue the Democratic platform in the GE. Angling for Republicans pissed that Bush hasn't won in Iraq yet is not the way to do it in the primary.

[peacebaby3]

115. I disagree again. This process is about picking a candidate that can win the GE.

There are not normally enough Democratic voters in this country to win the GE. One candidate (and maybe the other one) has brought in quite a few new Dem voters, but will those voters still feel that they want to participate if the candidate that got them interested and inspired is no longer running?

Again, I will ask you why a PA Dem will represent the will of all Democratic voters?

Edit to add: This isn't just about pissed Repubs. It's about the Independents as well. They will be left out of the nominating process in a closed primary.

[rox63]

83. There are 10 more states to go

It's not all about Pennsylvania, despite the fact that Hillary wants everyone to think that only Pennsylvania counts.

[rug]

90. There are but Pennsylvania at this time is critical for both.

[scheming daemons]

102. PA is offset by IN/NC.... in delegate count, AND in importance...

NC and IN are states that are increasingly purple and are in play in the election if Obama is the nominee.

The demographics in both are favorable for Obama against McCain.



PA is a win in the general for either Clinton OR Obama.... because Fast Eddie, despite preferring Clinton, would work for Obama if he's the nominee.


As long as Fast Eddie is the governor, PA won't be turning red - no matter who wins between Obama and Clinton.

[George_Bonanza]

84. Nuh uh, nice try Hillary

You don't get to declare "last goal wins!" when Obama's running up the score on you.

Pledged delegates and popular votes = nomination.

[rug]

92. Nice try Pascal but 2025 = nomination.

[scheming daemons]

106. Exactly.... and PA represents only 1/20 of the delegates in this nomination process.....

...and its "importance" is commensurate with that.

[snooper2]

97. Holy shit...

Now, ALL the other states don't matter...fuck, let's just wipe the slate clean, and whoever wins PA wins the nomination!

More twisted Hillbot logic...

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:



Need some more straws?

[rug]

107. I'm always impressed when an argument is buttressed by smileys.

I must now reconsider my entire position.

[Buzz Clik]

116. You've been told the same thing with extensive text and logic.

Funny how your response is always the same.

It ain't the smilies....

[rug]

135. Extensive text and logic? Anywhere near your name?

[grantcart]

142. Why don't we just say Rhode Island was it and stop the charade?

[AlinPA]

110. Living in PA, I have seen some negative campaigning and it does not always work

as expected. Fisher (R) v Rendell (D), Santorum (R) v Casey (D) are two where the R's went negative immediately and stayed negative. The R's were rejected by the voters in favor of the two Democrats who maintained a postive message. A local race near Pittsburgh had an R with a very negative campaign (Turzai, R) v Klink, D) that was totally rejected.

[HYSplease]

118. Who cares who Democrats alone want as their nominee?

Democrats alone won't win the White House for Democrats.

[GalleryGod]

119. Milford? That's the "Alabammy" portion of PA. Correct?

See if they have this one at the Milford Public Library.
If not...drive over to Montague !:rofl: :spray: :rofl:

[rug]

134. It's the second coolest town in the country.

http://travel.yahoo.com/p-interests-20518928

How's the Klan doing in Vineland?

[WinkyDink]

145. Have you ever been to Milford? It's a beautiful area of the state.

[tabasco]

120. We will see who PA Democrats want for their nominee.

PA is not the USA.

[GalleryGod]

127. Too bad for "The Big Girl" that Frank is dead...

He would've been a huge help, shouting, once again, "Vote WHITE!" at Hillary Rallies.

[high density]

121. Crystal clear test. Because the other states... Those people voting in the other states are idiots?

We know who the Democrats want as their nominee. They've been voting since January about it. It's the guy who has been winning more pledged delegates.

[GalleryGod]

122. More like 6 weeks of Carpet Bombing: It'll bring out the WORST of human emotions in the

"Alabammy" portion of Pennsylvania. And You can have that scumbag Rendell for Your leading spokesman...the difference between =Fast Eddie & Spitzer? Midge caught him and they went to counseling for 4 years.

[Umbram]

123. H.C. meets the Matrix: "Instead...only try to to realize the truth. There is no goalpost. " (nt)

[HeraldSquare212]

133. So far, Dems want Obama. PA results, whatever they are, aren't going to weigh any more than the

previous 30 contests.

[taught_me_patience]

136. This goes beyond desperate

Hillary supports are trying to re-frame the argument that PA is some sort of "litmus test" a candidate must pass. Please replace "democrats" with "Pennsylvanians" in your post. Democrats have already spoken, and the choice is Obama.

[rug]

139. Some Democrats and many Republicans have. Do you propose the rest of the Democrats shut up?

[AtomicKitten]

144. Keep moving those goalposts!