How Many States Will Obama Win This Fall?

[QC]

Poll question: How Many States Will Obama Win This Fall?

Assuming that he is the nominee--a virtual certainty at this point--and that McCain remains the GOP nominee, how many states do you think Obama will carry?

[joeybee12]

1. 10-25, on the low end, Dukakis re-do...n/t

[krawhitham]

24. I think you are wrong, but only takes 11

Once McCain is on the chopping block he will be lucky to get any states, multiple affairs, Keating Five, HIS crazy ass spiritual guide

anyway

California
Texas
New York
Florida
Illinois
Pennsylvania
Ohio
Michigan
Georgia
New Jersey
North Carolina

271

[Arugula Latte]

28. No, that scenario is if we're stupid enough to nominate Hillary the Hated. nt

[meow mix]

31. yeah, you'll all see when independently minded repubs cross over.

:hi:

[meow mix]

33. oops, i meant for that to go down under my MT, GA, IND, OH, TX, LA, SC, NV reply.

[justinsb]

2. He's going to be the Nominee

The Clinton campaign is all over but the shouting.

[peace13]

17. And there will be lots of that! n/t

[youknowmenotdlc]

3. Enough.

[tekisui]

34. .

:thumbsup:

President Barack Obama.

[Zynx]

4. 24-25 top end.

[shayes51]

5. None because he will not be the nominee.

[Nitrogenica]

19. Why not?

[MethuenProgressive]

6. Doesn't matter how many. Matters which ones.

Ask Al and John.

[Zynx]

7. Our base is around 15 states.

Theirs is around 20 states. This could very well be a period like 1876-1896 where all the elections are pretty close.

[Demeter]

McCain Will Do a McGovern

And with any luck, we won't have a Tricky Dick emulator in office.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

8. Reality check for those answering "40 or more"... How many states do you think Kerry won?

[slick8790]

32. 19, IIRC.

But he was an extraordinarily weak candidate who ran a shoddy campaign. All signs point to Obama outperforming him by miles. My guess is Kerry would not have survived an extended primary like this.

[jackson_dem]

36. No. Kerry led Bush by 8 points at this time in 2004. Obama leads McCain by 0.3

As the "new" candidate in a change year Obama should be well ahead of McCain at this point. He once was. He once led McCain by over nine points but has steadily seen his electability decline as his unfavorable rating, which had only one place to go, have risen over the past year.

[slick8790]

38. Obama has also been vetted far more than Kerry was at this time.

He's a much stronger candidate from this primary.

[cali]

9. I don't have a crystal ball but I think he can win

the states that JK won plus some or all of the following: VA, IA, CO, NM.

[jlake]

16. If he doesn't flame out in grand style (which I think is a very real possibility)

I would tend to agree. It would be really nice if we could get OH and/or FL as insurance... but I don't see it happening.

[cali]

23. I don't see him flaming out

I'm beginning to suspect that he has a large component of teflon in his composition. I could be wrong, and we'll actually know that within the next few weeks. If he's going to flame out, it's going to happen in the near future.

[meow mix]

10. MT, GA, IND, OH, TX, LA, SC, NV i believe will go blue running Obama

possibly more..

[jlake]

12. NV maybe (would for Hill too) but OH, TX, LA, IN, - um, no.

[boston bean]

13. Quick, get meow a glass of water she needs to take her reality pills right now!

[jlake]

14. Get her a few gallons to wash down that barrel of meds she needs.

[Carrieyazel]

26. Obama would lose all of those, most of them are basically impossible.

[okasha]

27. You're the melamine flavor, right?

n/t

[jlake]

11. I don't know - but I do know that anyone voting 40+ needs to wake up....

[HCE SuiGeneris]

15. or, fewer than10

I can only surmise that answer comes from the racist/troll faction.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

20. Or the "people who were adults in 1984 faction"

[QC]

21. That was my first election.

I'll never forget sitting up watching the returns and seeing my candidate carry *one* state (and D.C.).

[HCE SuiGeneris]

22. McCain is NOT God Raygun,

and Obama's charisma and support can hardly be compared to Mondale's

A wildly popular incumbent vs. a nation disgusted at the current party and its "leader". Not a fair analogy.

[slick8790]

35. Obama =/= Mondale

Obama has a movement behind him unlike any Dem Candidate I can remember. Mondale did not.

[Danger Mouse]

18. probably all the states kerry won...and hopefully more than that...

i'm hoping people see through mccain and realize that this 'maverick' has had his lips planted firmly on bush's ass from day one

[Carrieyazel]

25. Obama will win about 20 states, which won't be enough.

The Democratic base is 17 states, (all the states Kerry won by 3+ points). I'll go ahead and give him the base, and add Wisconsin and Iowa. The 20th state would be Pennsylvania, and he could scrape by there in a general, the 21st could be New Hampshire, (but McCain is strong there).

I'll go ahead and say 19 states for now, PA and NH will be an uphill climb for him.

[jackson_dem]

37. Obama would lose Florida and Pennsylvania and probably also Ohio

We need to take two of those three to win, assuming we hold onto Michigan. And this is assuming he somehow manages to survive the coming swiftboating of him as racist against whites in the fall...

[metalluk]

29. None,

Unless he decides to run as an independent.

[XemaSab]

30. The view from NorCal:

Hella. :D