The Pelosi Number ----Today the Pelosi number is 223

[grantcart]

I've said it, many others have too. "When will the adults show up and stop the useless fighting?"

Sometimes adults show up and say a few words and we don't really get what they were saying.

First we had a preview from Uncle Billy

http://youtube.com/watch?v=sVfs2ntt7Rs&feature=PlayList&p=401FCFA7BC6E651E&index=11

"Solid lead by elected delegates"


http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5jbmaeGHPflyoZifK0IsXS9tCsWvwD8VE3FU00

Then Aunt Nancy gave us a little bit more:



Pelosi's Delegate Stance Boosts Obama

By DAVID ESPO – 2 days ago

WASHINGTON (AP) — House Speaker Nancy Pelosi says it would be damaging to the Democratic party for its leaders to buck the will of national convention delegates picked in primaries and caucuses, a declaration that gives a boost to Sen. Barack Obama.

"If the votes of the superdelegates overturn what's happened in the elections, it would be harmful to the Democratic party," Pelosi said in an interview taped Friday for broadcast Sunday on ABC's "This Week."

The California Democrat did not mention either Obama or his rival, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, by name. But her remarks seemed to suggest she was prepared to cast her ballot at the convention in favor of the candidate who emerges from the primary season with the most pledged delegates.Obama leads Clinton by 142 pledged delegates — those delegates picked in nomination contests to date, in The Associated Press' count.

That gives the balance of power to the so-called superdelegates, prominent Democrats who are automatically entitled to attend the convention because of their status as members of Congress or other leaders. Clinton leads Obama for their support in the AP count, 249-213.
.
"It's a delegate race," she said. "The way the system works is that the delegates choose the nominee."

More than 500 delegates remain to be picked in primaries beginning on April 22 in Pennsylvania, which has 158 at stake on April 22.
end quote


So if Obama reaches 50% +1 of the total elected delegate number that would mean that he would have the support of Speaker Pelosi. Is that the signal that the adults have sent about when they will pull the plug?


Current number needed for nomination 2024 subtract 397.5 (1/2 of superdelegates) net 1626.5 round up to 1627


1627 minus the elected delegates Obama now has 1404 equals 223

http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/01/superdelegate-list.html


So we can now coin a new number - THE PELOSI NUMBER - When Obama reaches 1627 it should trigger Speaker Pelosi's endorsement and one would think a number of other superdelegates - possibly enough to secure the nomination.



Today the Pelosi Number is 223

Everyday there is a change in Obama's delegate number we will issue a new thread updating the new Pelosi number.

[stellanoir]

1. If she could only find that damned table.

[Joyce78]

2. Dear Nancy, the adults have been watching your non-performance ...

It's high time for you to be voted out of office.

[olkaz]

18. I think she's done as well as she could

Given the crappy conditions and lack of unified support from Democrats.

She's doing great on FISA.

[Cha]

3. Thanks, grant..I was really encouraged

by Pelosi's statement that I read on buzzflash's editorial and now you have Nancy's today's number "223". This could get excitng!

So glad she doesn't seem to be bowing to old school elite power club pressure!

[grantcart]

10. yeah made me feel pretty damn good to. The more I thought about it

the more I thought it was a very specific signal too. I wonder if they are all having a beer somewhere wondering when the bloggers are finally going to get it? lol

Al Gore "Ah Nancy the shits over at DU got it first you owe me $ 100"

[Cha]

16. DU has some amazing minds..we, along

with Obama and millions of others knew the War On Iraq was wrong.

[housewolf]

4. Those number are subject to change...

If FL and/or MI are counted. 2024 Is the number of delegates required with FL & MI excluded.

[grantcart]

5. Florida has announced that there will be no revote today

However it is decided will require both campaigns to agree so it is unlikely that an agreement will be put into place that radically changes the lead.

Also if there is an agreement there has to be a 30 day comment period before it goes into effect so anything that is done will not take into effect until May or June. It is very likely that Obama will reach the Pelosi number before that.

If Pelosi endorses Obama, along with everything else, it will become virtually impossible for Clinton to overcome.

[smothtalker]

6. But I thought superdelegates are anti-Democratic

Are they good when they endorse Obama?

[grantcart]

8. First day and so many posts

who were you yesterday, last week?

I have no problems with superdelegates since Feb 5th they have gone 70% for Obama



I was never worried that superdelegates would overturn the will of the primary process.

Clinton's advantage in superdelegates is diminishing (now at 35) and is held together by her whopping 41 superdelegates from New York alone.

But here is what I am wondering mr smoothtalker why have most of the elected superdelegates endorsed Obama? I mean Hillary and Bill have had decades to develope those relationships and yet more Govenors and Senators endorse Obama than Clinton even though they have known him a few years.

Especially Senators, I mean they work with both of them all day long, why would they choose Obama and not Clinton - what do they know?

[ButterflyBlood]

17. Uh the point here is that they shouldn't overturn the elected delegates

Which isn't undemocratic.

[TheDoorbellRang]

7. It is conceivable it could happen sooner

Consider that after the next three races in PA, NC, and IN, Obama will probably have enough delegates for the super D's to put him over the top and end this misery. AP has him at 1617 (1404/213) total delegates. If he gets at average of 50% of the PD's in the next three races, that's about 173 more delegates. That would put him at 1790 -- 235 short of 2025. There's 333 super D's left to commit.

[grantcart]

9. Yes and there are delegates being added to the count every day

1) Caucuses are going thru the process and, for example Obama gained 9 delegates this weekend in Iowa and is likely to gain more at the state convention.

2) Superdelegates are endorsing all the time. Today Obama gained one.

3) There are 81 'add on delegates' that are being announced as they are chosen. To see the schedule on this arcane subject go here

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5126016&mesg_id=5126016

[psychopomp]

11. Thank you for breaking this down so neatly

Seriously good stuff :toast:

[grantcart]

12. very kind of you to say so.

[Scurrilous]

13. Excellent as usual.

K & R :thumbsup:

[psychopomp]

14. kick

:kick:

[psychopomp]

15. kick for the morning folks in the USA

:kick:

[grantcart]

19. thanks

[phrigndumass]

20. 223, with only 107.5 needed if polls hold true ....

Smells like a nomination!

:thumbsup:

[grantcart]

21. The non vote in Michigan and Florida are huge

[grantcart]

22. Given the most favorable possible showing for Sen Clinton

Sen Obama would pass the Pelosi number in Oregon on May 20th