NC now a dead heat; Clinton beats McCain in Ohio, Obama loses badly

[jackson_dem]

POLL: PPP Ohio, North Carolina

Public Policy Polling (D)

Ohio
Clinton 45, McCain 44... McCain 49, Obama 41

North Carolina
Obama 44, Clinton 43

In NC Obama gets only 30% white support while Clinton holds Obama to 72% among blacks, suggest what PA is showing is part of a trend in both cases.

Obama led by 4 in the last PPP poll.

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/poll_ppp_ohio.php

[Bullet1987]

1. Nice spin...

NC was pre-speech...it's a one-day poll...and has undecideds

[jackson_dem]

2. No one cares about that speech in the real world

[OhioBlue]

6. by no one you must mean everyone. who ISN'T talking about it? n/t

[blm]

7. Few understand how closed government has been dangerous for our country and

follow closed government Democrats faithfully, completely oblivious to the fact that their decisions to protect secrecy and privilege of closed government led directly to the emergence of Bush2, 9-11 and this Iraq war....And is leading us into war with Iran.

Why do you prefer closed government to open government, jackson? Why do YOU want the protection of BushInc continued into the next decade? Do you not WANT your citizens' right to open government that is accountable to you?

[laureloak]

8. I doubt that speech will change anything here.

And I don't see myself voting for a president who supports a church that hates whites. If he was vehmently opposed to it he could have spoken out sooner. His silence tells me he's been in agreement with his "minister" all along.

Thus, Obama has lost my trust and I think a lot of my fellow North Carolinians will think the same way when they're alone in that voting booth.

[olkaz]

The church doesn't hate whites; You know they don't.

But you say it anyway. That takes conviction, and I can respect that.

I encourage you to go into any black church on Sunday. Got one nearby? Ask. Listen. Repeat.

[laureloak]

59. It's obvious to me that Obama's church teaches hatred

towards whites. I hear enough hatred of whites on the black tv shows. I'd be a fool to participate in such racism.

[RaleighNCDUer]

12. The church doesn't hate whites.

It hates what whites have done in repression of the black community for the past 1 1/2 centuries since the end of slavery.

I can't fault them on that.

[laureloak]

58. Oh, are you a member of that church...

or are you just flapping your lips?

[The Doctor.]

37. Nice brainwashing you got there... where'd you get it?

'Whites' attend the church... I'm sure they hate it too. :silly:

[Qutzupalotl]

3. NC poll was conducted on Monday

before the speech. And Ohio was 15th-17th, during the Wright hype.

Plenty of time for Obama to open up a lead.

[jackson_dem]

10. He's been going down in NC for about three weeks

A Romney speech won't change that. Ask Mitt.

[Qutzupalotl]

13. An Obama speech will!

:hi:

[jackson_dem]

15. Maybe a 2-3 point temporary bounce

;)

[Qutzupalotl]

16. More like a 5 point lead on election day.

More than sufficient.

[jackson_dem]

20. NC is on May 6. Any temporary media coverage bounce will be long gone then

Especially if he loses Pennsylvania. In his speech he said racism is bad. It wasn't exactly Humphrey's 1948 "sunshine of human rights" speech.

[Qutzupalotl]

25. That's not what the pundits are saying.

It was thoughtful and very well received.

[rodeodance]

29. but temporary. Besides many pundits are also saying it was NOT enough.

[LulaMay]

34. It wasn't. They will play that "God Damn America" video over & over, and he didn't 'disown' Wright.

Most Americans are not going to elect a president associated with a man who said those words,

no matter all the understanding in he world.


I think people are in denial.

[Qutzupalotl]

41. If they try that now, they'll look like racists.

And Obama did reject Wright's statements. He is being praised for standing by a friend and not disowning him.

[LulaMay]

49. I hope you are right, but I doubt it. It is still being aired everywhere. They don't need to say

anything. It's so incendiary on it's own.

He isn't receiving across the board praise for standing by Wright. It is pretty limited to liberals and his supporters....and apparently Mike Huckabee, which is weird, but then he's weird.

[Qutzupalotl]

51. Where is it still being aired?

Besides YouTube, I mean.

[LulaMay]

52. It was on the Daily Show last night. I thought I saw it this morning again

but that could've been yesterday.

I know it's been played a lot even after his speech.



I just don't think it's going away.

Rethugs are nasty nasty. They will use it.

and the problem is that Wright's statement "God Damn America" doesn't on it's own say anything about race, to a lot of people it just sounds like anti-Americanism. It can be taken out of the context he used it in.

I don't think they'll fear being called racists for using it.

[NCarolinawoman]

55. INSIDE EDITION has played the "GD America" part 3 days in a row.

In the area where I live (central NC), INSIDE EDITION follows the local noon news. INSIDE EDITION is then repeated again at 700pm.

[SammyWinstonJack]

24. Will what?

:shrug:

[Qutzupalotl]

27. ...change that.

[rodeodance]

26. That speech was fairly good but highly overrated in the minds of many DU'er's

[Qutzupalotl]

28. Most media outlets are giving it high praise.

[rodeodance]

30. and??---

[Qutzupalotl]

39. So maybe it's being underrated in the minds of other DUers.

[rodeodance]

53. For myself, I put it in context of what else is going on in both campaigns.

[Scairp]

44. Yes

I don't understand the certainty that this speech was an enormous, once in century kind of speech. It wasn't the bloody Gettysburg address for pity's sake. He looked like he would rather have been chewing ground glass than giving that speech.

[thesubstanceofdreams]

4. Clinton wins by 1 pt = Clinton wins; Clinton loses by 1 pt = dead heat

And you expect people to take you seriously.

[SoCalDem]

5. and Mccain may choose this guy for a running-mate

[olkaz]

9. You are really reaching, jackson_dem

All the other polls said 5% Obama up, and this was during a viciously negative cycle on Obama. It got closer during that cycle.

I think Ohio already has their delegates, right?

[jackson_dem]

11. Yeah, he's been going down for 3 weeks

This is just a continuation.

[ProgressiveEconomist]

14. "Obama led by 4 in the last (NC) PPP poll" So Obama must be GAINING in Ohio,

since you omitted the symmetric finding from your OP.

AHA! I'm beginning to get the hang of reading your "statistical" posts. Just look for logical omissions and I'll uncover the RELEVANT findings from your sources.

It's not what you say, it's what you DON'T say that's worth finding out.

[jackson_dem]

47. That does not follow? He loses ground in NC and that somehow means he gains in Ohio?

He is losing ground in the NC primary. Ohio is about the general election.

[DrFunkenstein]

17. Even If Clinton Wins 60% of Every State and 65% of Pennsylvania...She Still Loses

She will be lucky to win a majority of the final contests. Reality bites.

[jackson_dem]

18. Really? Obama needs about 140% to get to 2,024 by June 3

NC is Obama's best shot to win a state of any decent size the rest of the way. If he loses NC...will the party nominate someone who ended by losing for three months, loses the popular vote, and looks increasingly unelectable?

[jackson_dem]

19. Neither can win without sd's

NC is Obama's best shot to win a state of any decent size the rest of the way. If he loses NC...will the party nominate someone who ended by losing for three months, loses the popular vote, and looks increasingly unelectable?

[Bullet1987]

21. Jackson_Dem...your reaching and it shows

Face facts that Clinton is a longshot AT BEST...

[nickn777]

38. Loses is a poor choice of words....

she can cut the pledged delegate lead down to about 80-90 or so with some healthy wins, by the end in June.

Since there are 800 supers, this could be a compelling enough case to exercise the best judgement, and nominate the candidate that can beat McCain. Ohio is the best evidence. Clinton can win Ohio in Nov., Obama cannot.

[rodeodance]

22. Thanks jacksondem

[rodeodance]

23. REC

[nickn777]

31. Based on some new polling data...

which includes 56- 30 in Pennsylvania, and now a virtual dead heat in NC (Remember when Obama would clean up there?)........

Using Slate's Delegate calculator, I can get Clinton to within about 80 or 90 in pledged delegates by the end in June.

If she wins most of the remainder of the contests, this delegate difference is small enough to give the superdelegates GOOD CAUSE to nominate Clinton, rather than Obama. Remember, there are nearly 800 supers in total.

[rodeodance]

54. yes, i think the dynamics will change for the SD as time goes by.

[WVRevy]

32. Bullshit

Ohio's biggest issue in the election?

The economy.

McCain's stance on NAFTA?

McCain is a VEHEMENT "free trader".

He'll get his ass handed to him in that state, and I don't give a damn if the Dems are running Jimmy Carter.

Learn some freaking politics before trying to talk about things you obviously have no clue about.

[msallied]

36. I lived in Ohio my whole life until recently

and I know that state well. They are definitely voting Democrat this year. That state has been far too hurt by Republican economic policies. What we're seeing above here are Clinton supporters trying to spin a losing cause in their favor, as if the majority of Democrats wouldn't vote Dem if she lost the nomination. She flatters herself far too much in this election.

[jackson_dem]

46. That's a big difference. Clinton wins the economy by 15, Obama by only 2

I live in the real world. Many Obama supporters go by what the Obama machine tells them with no regard for data.

[WVRevy]

56. That would be the "real world" in which...

...Hillary won't be the nominee, and Ohioans still have her lies about Obama fresh in their minds, with nothing to compare it to from McCain at this point, right? That real world?

You're just trying to find an excuse so your candidate can be "justified" in stealing the nomination. Sorry, but I'm sticking with my original "bullshit" call on this one.

[yardwork]

33. Again, you are mixing apples and oranges.

Polls about the general election mean nothing until our candidate is chosen. It's simply irrational to say that because Hillary beats Obama in a particular state, that means Obama would lose that state in the GE. It might be true, but it could just as easily not be true.

Anyway, if Obama is our nominee, the electoral map changes from recent elections. Suddenly the south will be in play for Democrats, and some midwestern states will not be in play. Google the electoral map of Jimmy Carter's win 1976 - that's the way Obama wins, plus the big states like California and New York.

Ohio and Indiana probably have too many white racists for them to support a black nominee. On the other hand, a bunch of southern states suddenly become viable for the Democrats. And Obama will win stalwart Democratic states like NY and CA in the general if he's our nominee.

[RYOMYO]

35. Meh there's a 68 2.0...

n/t

[Carrieyazel]

40. Ohio 45-44 isn't exactly "beating" McCain. Ohio will be a hard nut to crack this fall.

Hillary will do poorly in rural Ohio against McCain. The same areas that she beat Obama in a couple of weeks ago. Right now, her GE strategy seems to be all or nothing on Ohio; and even with Strickland there, that is a massively risky strategy. If she loses Wisconsin or New Hampshire to McCain, and assuming she doesn't pick up any Mountain West states, even an Ohio win (unlikely) won't put her over the top.

[NMMatt]

42. Looks like your NC is like every other poll that under represented Obama's AA support

Like in SC. In fact 30% of white support is average for Southern states, however, 70% of black support is 15 to 20% low (not uncommon for these polls). There is no news here.

[book_worm]

43. your intellectually dishonest

running 8-points behind McCain with 10-percent undecided is not "losing badly". Losing badly is usually double digits or more. Like in Colorado where a new poll out today has Obama tied with McCain but Hillary fourteen-points behind. But both polls don't mean shit this early in the game. McCain is surging because of all the infighting our side.

[jackson_dem]

48. Running 9 points worse than someone who has been attacked for 16 years is very bad

The opposite should be the case given he is the "new" candidate.

[MattNC]

45. PPP polling has always shown it closer in NC

72% of blacks according to that poll is noticeably less than other polling outfits. Who is right is of course up for debate, but I think it undersells his support.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=170x9740

See my above post in the NC forum. The race has probably tightened somewhat as a result of the last week, but I would still say confidently that Obama is leading by about five points or so.

[jackson_dem]

50. The point is the trend. Obama's lead in NC has consistently declined since he lost Ohio and Texas

Personally I think the candidate who wins PA will carry that momentum to win NC. It is close and momentum is likely to be the difference. Many Obama supporters are mistakenly thinking NC=SC.

[MattNC]

57. Obama's a great state for him

NC is a great state for him. Large African American pop., growing higher educated/affluent white pop., lots of college towns.

We also don't have enough polling yet to argue with confidence that Obama's numbers having "consistently declined" in NC since he lost Ohio and Texas. PPP is the only outfit to produce more than one poll since Ohio/Texas and they've shown a move of only three points. (their sample size is also a little on the low side) Still...in reality, she probably has picked up a little steam here, but nothing to suggest she's going to win the state. Obama's in Fayetteville and Charlotte today, and we don't have any polling yet since his latest Wright speech. We'll certainly have a better picture of the race with new polls after that.

As for winning PA translating into a win in NC, who knows? If she wins by 15-20 points there, yeah, it'll help her a great deal probably. If it's less than that and Obama succeeds in downplaying the state's significance in the coming week, it may not matter at all.

[kwenu]

60. Obama is the permanent leader in the nominee race get used to it.