Obama sinking like a rock. If he loses North Carolina

[Rex_Goodheart]

will you Obama supporters admit that he's not our most viable candidate?

Obama was cruising in North Carolina. Now, a new poll shows Clinton in a dead heat.

Also, in the EXTREMELY important swing state of Ohio polls show Clinton would beat McCain, but McCain would beat Obama.

http://www.davidwissing.com/

I'm grateful now for the wisdom of the Democratic Party in implementing a superdelegates tier in our nomination process. We're going to need it to avoid a train wreck.

[jlake]

1. Yep. That's exactly what the superdelegates are for.

[democrattotheend]

15. I actually agree with you

After hearing his speech yesterday, I have faith that Obama can weather this storm. But if he doesn't then I am glad we have superdelegates to prevent a train wreck. I want the superdelegates to pick the most electable candidate, to the extent that that can be judged at the time. As an Obama supporter and as a Democrat, the last thing in the world I want is for Obama to get the nomination but be in such a weakened position that he can't win.

[scheming daemons]

2. He won't.... those polls are pre-speech.... obsolete and irrelevant.

[tekisui]

3. And pre-campaigning in the state.

[Bullet1987]

5. Huh...same crap different bag

-Pre-Speech
-High Undecideds
-Irregular Black vote
-Small sample

[roguevalley]

57. McCain! I'm so scared! He's so articulate, young, vigorous and

anti-war!

[mmonk]

4. The democratic party is imploding and watching a train wreck.

It's doing nothing about the race baiting. There's nothing genius in that at all.

[Bigleaf]

6. Keep dreaming. You guys ar going to fall HARD when this is over.

[Rex_Goodheart]

7. I'm voting Democratic no matter what...

and I fear we're all going to fall hard.

[jenmito]

11. So you want Obama to drop out/think he'll lose to Hillary yet fear Hillary will fail in the GE?

:shrug:

[Rex_Goodheart]

8. If you were going to participate in the thread...

you might have at least had the courtesy to answer the question posed.

[Bigleaf]

22. You're basing all of this on one poll? Call me when the convention starts.

[barb162]

41. Rasmussen and Reuters POLLS indicate Obama's dropping fast.

[theredpen]

45. Look! Here's a LINK! Proving you WRONG!

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Obama is RISING in the polls. RASMUSSEN polls.

[book_worm]

9. Crusing? the poll you cite had him up by 4 now he's up by 1 all within moe?

I'll wait and see what other more reliable polls like Survey USA say. These polls, also, were done during the height of the Wright controversy and I'll be interested how that all plays out with his speech yesterday.

[gayron]

36. They will say the same thing

I guess you are waiting on the numbers in PA to change also ah! You know Obama is running scared now and you all can defend him all you want, but all the money he has will not change the minds of many in PA.

[NMMatt]

10. Two points

A: He is not losing North Carolina. In fact, that poll is typical in underestimating his African American support. We've seen this play over and over from certain pollsters (like PPP), everytime you have seized on them, and time and time have been proven wrong.

B: The only train wreck is if the superdelegates over turn the will of the people.

[aquarius dawning]

19. >>>>

Point A.) That African American support will become a curse in the general election because he won't be able to depend on it to win in a winner take all style race as white people grossly outnumber black people in America and in especially in the states where it will matter most. Because he has turned this into, among other things, a racial pissing contest, whites in critical states are going to show him who can piss further in November.

Poinbt B.) The train wreck comes in November. We have to sit back and watch it transpire until then.

[NMMatt]

20. Nice try

However his white support has not shrunk like you claim (according to your poll). 30% in North Carolina is almost exactly what he got in Mississippi. This has not turned into a racial pissing contest. In fact, the only whites who are seizing on this are the right wingers (who were going to seize on something - that was known well in advance) and their dispicable enablers, the Hillary-dead enders like yourself.

Remains to be seen, however, Obama has proven much more formidable at fighting back to this kind of swift-boating than Kerry for example, and he is running in a much more favorable climate. In fact, his biggest challenge isn't this bullshit. His biggest challenge is being unable to fight a one-front war against McCain because of Hillary's delusional and quixotic continuation of her campaign (and threat to take it to the convention).

[aquarius dawning]

26. That support is not amongst the general electorate

It is among the democratic party electorate which is far from representative of the states in question. be honest with yourself, do you really think obama is going to win Mississippi, or North carolina or even Virginia? There's no way. Furthermore, it is not by any means a foregone conclusion that he will win Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, Michigan, or even Wisconsin. Obama's chances of winning in a general election are slim at best and the fact remains, the african American base that has propelled him along in the primaries will become disadvantageous in the winner take all battles to come even if he does pull 30% of the white vote. And you can call us dead enders all you like but insults aren't going to win over our votes, I can promise you that.

[NMMatt]

43. You obviously don't understand demographics and have not been paying attention

He has gotten well more than 30% of white voters in places such as WI and VA. You don't win the entire Upper-midwest, mountain states and Pacific Northwest regions without winning over 50% of the white voters in those areas. In SC, MS and other southern states he tends to poll near 30%. You see, all "white voters" are not the same, and neither are all "black voters" for that matter. Also, winning Democratic primaries is very different than winning general elections.

So lets look at the state polls: in upper midwestern state such as WI, IA and MN he significantly out polls McCain, obviously on the backs of white voters as they make up 90% of the electorate in those states. In OH, PA and MI it is much closer with polls showing it going both ways - which hints at his possible Obama weakness among white working class voters insecure about the economy. However, when it becomes McCain (I don't know or care much about the economy) vs. Obama who is offering the same resonant solutions that all three democratic candidate have been offering, I fully suspect that he will perform much better among these voters. The economy is going to be THE issue. As for VA, which is less and less "southern" each year, the polls show it tied with McCain. Obama does well, after all, among the wealthy left-leaning voters who dominate the DC suburbs, which adds to his AA support in the state.

But no, he will not win MS - and NC is probably out of reach, though like VA - less southern these days with Starbucks-drinking people moving into the Research Triangle.

[olkaz]

12. You know, the least you could do is not completely repeat jackson_dem's post

I know you're trying to get as many posts bumped to the top that fit your framing, but you should at least cite him.

[rodeodance]

53. oh but

this man taught us so much about the value of repetition

http://bp3.blogger.com/_vH5f59Og-Sc/Rsk8dPZMnAI/AAAAAAAAA7g/JRs1kzPFYOU/s320/rove+obama.jpg

[Seen the light]

13. No chance in hell that Obama loses NC

Just like there's no chance in hell that Clinton loses Pennsylvania. While we're on the topic, there's also no chance of Obama losing the nomination.

[Carrieyazel]

14. Polls show Ohio a dead heat, but I seriously doubt Hillary would win it.

She'll get crushed in rural Ohio against McCain. All right, so she'll do significantly better than Obama in Ohio, but Ohio isn't exactly a general election savior for her. She has significant obstacles there, and even if she say, loses it by 4 points to McCain, it still goes down as a defeat

[yardwork]

16. What? Polls show Obama ahead or in a dead heat with Hillary.

Where do you get "sinking like a rock?" Good try, though.

[theredpen]

17. OMG a pro-McCain blog is highlighting pre-speech numbers

Note that all of the data in this report is after the Wright blow-up but before Obama's historic speech.

Post-speech polling data is showing a resurgence in Obama's popularity. Don't count your superdelegates before they hatch.

[musicblind]

38. Not doubting you about the post speech polling data. That would make sense

but do you have any examples? Are any of them out yet? Thx :)

[theredpen]

46. Here's a Rasmussen daily tracking poll that shows BHO rebounding against HRC

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

[musicblind]

61. Thank you :)

[barb162]

40. Hey, it's in the major media , Reuters, etc Obama is sinking fast.

[theredpen]

44. Apparently, major media that doesn't have web sites. LINKS?!

[rodeodance]

18. The myth if BO electabilty is just that--a MYTH

[mrJJ]

21. Dead candidates walking

I would suggest that both opposing Dem camps start pushing your candidates to get out there and Support your DEM SENATE & CONGRESSIONAL State candidates for 08.

Thats the ONE and only chance you have to stem the continuation of the present day Bush/Cheney policies. Best you reach out to the Indies, newbies & crossover voters ASAP.

Just a suggestion.

Hillary Clinton will not win the Presidency. Barak Obama cannot sustain attacks from within his own Party & fight the Republican candidate at the same time....

Vote AGAINST the Dem Presidential nominee by leaving that slot BLANK on Nov 4th

Vote FOR the Dem Presidential nominee because this is YOUR CHOICE

Simple choice for Indies,newbies & crossover voters to make in November...

So best of luck in 2012...

[Dawgs]

23. The only candidate that has sunk like a rock is Hillary.

Remember the leads she had in every state in November and December of last year.

Remember the leads she had in Ohio and Texas just two weeks before they voted.

Show me one state where Obama has underperformed. Don't bother, because you can't.

[barb162]

42. He underperforms in the BIG states. Like PA coming up.

[PoliticalAmazon]

51. Obama leads by >100 delegates, twice as many states won

Do the math.

[Turn CO Blue]

24. Get on over to pollster.com where you can get some actual

perspective...a poll of polls that show TRENDS.

<http://www.pollster.com/08-NC-Dem-Pres-Primary.php>




AND - as posted above, you dare to link to a pro-McCain site?

[femrap]

25. I still believe the best compromise

for the Dems is the 'Dream Ticket' which very well could give us 16 years of Dem Presidency....
Clinton/Obama. He gets years of experience, both foreign and domestic, and takes over in 2016...or possibly 2012, if Clinton wants to retire.

What is so wrong with this? I see it as the only common sense agreement that will save the Democratic Party from this 'Divide and Conquer' strategy being used against us by TPTB. Can't we be smarter than them for once?

Is BO's ego that big that he can't see the benefit of this compromise?

[jonestonesusa]

30. Democratic voters have put Obama in the lead. My dream ticket?

At this point, Senator Obama is the front runner among Democrats. He has won more states, raised money from 1 million small donors, and has a lead in the delegate count, Isn't it us voters that decide on the ticket? If Clinton is the stronger candidate she should be winning the race. Instead, she's lost a substantial lead and has gone negative for a few weeks, alienating a core constituency that have been among Bill Clinton's strongest supporters (African Americans).

Why is it that only Obama is accused of being ego-centric? Hillary Clinton has an ego too - and to say that Obama should be #2 when she's losing in the race illustrates that ego.

I think it would be both a good idea and and important action to include a notable female Democrat on the ticket. Rather than Clinton, who is viewed by many as a divisive figure both within the Democratic party and in the wider electorate, I would suggest Kansas governor Kathleen Sebelius or Arizona governor Janet Napolitano. Then, America would see the future of the Democratic party. Perhaps Clinton could serve as secretary of state, defense, or on the Supreme Court.

[femrap]

65. I don't know if BO's speech

calmed Middle America...that church of his is creepy. I noticed they changed their website!

And unfortunately, Americans love their silly religions. I am not a fan of organized religions...they just seem to start wars.

I hope we can come up with some solution...cuz I can't bear Prez McCain.

[CakeGrrl]

31. Why do people always want to put Clinton at the top of the ticket when she's losing?

If she wanted to be in the driver's seat, she should have figured out a way to hold her 20-point leads before the primaries got going - except she was so arrogant she figured she'd have the race wrapped up last month without really trying. Tough toast for her. Obama was clear - he's not running for VP, and the people who voted for him are well aware of that.

[femrap]

64. So say hello to Prez McCain...nt

[Texas Hill Country]

33. Obama is damaged goods now, I dont know if both Hillary and Obama with both their negatives...

could get past the GE.

[Carrieyazel]

49. That ticket wouldn't be able to win in 2008, I'm afraid.

Or Obama/Clinton, for that matter. This infighting and bickering won't let it happen, anyway.

[femrap]

63. There's lots of time before November.....

Hopefully the Dems have lots of ammo on the corpse, McCain.

[SammyWinstonJack]

27. K&R

[bowens43]

28. why would we admit to a lie?

Of course obama is our most viable candidate.

Get real. Obamna is winning in every category across the board except white women over the age of 70.

your post makes you look foolish

[totodeinhere]

29. Actually, according to Rasmussen, Obama picked up four points on Clinton

since yesterday and now leads her 47-42. He led her 45-44 yesterday. I realize that this is just one pollster and one day's worth of polling. But this sure doesn't confirm your claim that Obama "is sinking like a rock." There just is no evidence of that.

[Splinter Cell]

32. You're wrong, and you should be happy.

Every democrat (most lifelong members) that I personally know, would be casting a vote for a certain Arizona Senator if HRC got the nomination. By the way, I know A LOT of democrats.

[PresidentObama]

34. I supported Clinton. Please tell me a logical way she can win?

I'm sorry, it's sad but true.

She can't win the nomination at this point.

It's time to focus on the GE, and defeating John McCain.

[Political Heretic]

35. Honestly, what's happening to me is my desire to just have a fracking nominee is what's on the rise.

I just want this mess to be over.

[pointsoflight]

37. Poll taken during height of Wright controversy. Wait a week and get back to me.

[barb162]

39. GO Hillary!

[PoliticalAmazon]

47. Fake deadlines from Clinton campaign

Considering the fact that Obama is over 100 delegates ahead of Clinton, and has won twice as many states, there is no reason for his supporters to go over to loser Hillary.

I can't speak for others, but I would rather vote for Satan than Hillary Clinton.

[ORDem]

48. Interesting concept here. We should only elect the candidate who won the LAST state that voted.

That would certainly compress the primary schedule (like to one day before the GE). LOL!

Kidding aside, if the SDs overturn the delegates elected you are going to see a train wreck all-right, like no other.


:dem:

[dcindian]

50. If you actually believe in what Clintons campaign is all about you would not even post this crap

Must be the Obama hate overrides that Clinton mantra it's not over till it's over.

[walldude]

52. Yup good thing you have those superdelegates

otherwise there would be no way to subvert the will of the people.

[Johnny__Motown]

54. NO.... Link provided

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/brent-budowsky/hillarys-plan-to-elect-m_b_92142.html

[RBInMaine]

55. If Hillary is nominated, the R's will celebrate in the streets.

[dave123williams]

56. I'm not voting for someone who's as prima facia an opportunist as Hillary.

Sorry, she just won't get my vote. Period.

McCain would beat Obama in North Carolina? What. A. Shocker.

Try again.

[SammyWinstonJack]

59. LOL! Why vote for Obama then? He is the ultimate opportunist! You try again.

[dave123williams]

67. Really. How is he more of an opportunist, exactly?

[RamboLiberal]

58. And today we have the Hillary meeting touting NAFTA in 93

Bet she starts going down in PA and NC. OH might wish they could get a mulligan on their vote!

[SoCalDem]

60. trainwreck? you might be right, but you have the wrong person

[LittleClarkie]

62. Was that poll taken before or after his speech

I'd like to see one taken after.

[onenote]

66. and if Obama ends up winning North Carolina

will you admit he's our most viable candidate?

I'm not really expecting an answer of course.

[libnnc]

68. Both Bev Perdue and Richard Moore have endorsed Obama n/t