GALLUP: Clinton -1, Obama +2

[Abacus]

[BeyondGeography]

1. Sorry, pastorbaters

[jakem]

2. LOL!

[loveangelc]

3. lol

[DerekJ]

28. hahahahaha

:rofl:

[barb162]

35. Look at March 16 -Mar 20, sorry Obama fans. Clinton is winning!

[TahitiNut]

39. I guess it depends on what the meaning of "is" is.

Strangely, I see "is" on March 21. :eyes:

[barb162]

42. Oh, let's ignore the last five days of that poll showing Hillary winning ? Hahah

[barb162]

43. dupe

self delete

[TahitiNut]

49. Of course you won't, luv! Of course not! Just hold on to your binky!

:eyes:

[barb162]

52. binky?

?

[berni_mccoy]

44. ROFL!

[Orsino]

48. Magnificent! n/t

[snooper2]

54. That is fucking HILLarious

OMG - you win post of the YEAR award!

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

[slick8790]

56. Post of the year. n/t

[leftofcool]

4. This is a few days old

[Oreo]

5. Nope...

this is the new one.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. Ummmm-No

http://www.gallup.com/poll/105517/Gallup-Daily-Clinton-Holds-Onto-Lead-Over-Obama.aspx

The newest one should be coming out any minute

[jefferson_dem]

18. This is the new one. It's not on the website yet but follows the trend -

Hillary was up by 49/42 and then 48/43 yesterday.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

26. You Are Correct

How did the poster get the image before it made the website?

Oh well...

[Abacus]

33. I keep the url open in my browser

Every day, I advance the date and refresh periodically.  I
actually hadn't realized that they hadn't yet linked it on
their own site.  I'll turn HTML formatting off so you can see
the URL. 032108 is the date, tomorrow it will be 032208

http://media.gallup.com/poll/graphs/032108DailyUpdateGraph1.gif

[DemocratSinceBirth]

46. Good Work

Because the site is my homepage...

[barb162]

37. Go Hillary!! Hurray! She's whuppin' Obama

and she'll win at the Convention.

[Drunken Irishman]

19. Yes it is.

Yesterday's results had Obama down 48-43, just as this graph shows.

[mohc]

22. Not to mention

The poll there has through the 19th and this new one is through the 20th. An old poll that was predicting the future...that must be it!

[Tropics_Dude83]

6. Obama is back!!!!!1

[Robbins]

13. Obama

More evidance the speech did what It needed to.It will be Intresting to see If this rebound gets as much airtime as when she lead 49 to 42.It Is now back as a deadheat and this was pefore the passportgate,and the Richardson endorsment.

[Abacus]

23. CNN was still running the 49-42 poll this morning

as if it were the latest results.

[karynnj]

No it's not - the last date plotted is yesterday

[cottonseed]

7. Lots of good stuff today for Obama.

I wonder if there will be a Richardson bounce?

[Abacus]

12. Yep

I can't imagine losing ground in tomorrow's results. We're not only adding in good news, but the bad news days are dropping off the 3 day average.

[thesubstanceofdreams]

8. Link? n/t

[JackORoses]

10. Hillary's Nuclear attack has fizzled

She is done for.
God, she is so very selfish to keep dragging her supporters back into the trenches with her.

[gcomeau]

11. And so...

... Obama faces a political crisis on possibly the most inflammatory subject in the nation, complete with made-for-tabloid video spread all over the nation... and it causes a blip in his poll numbers for a week after he steps up and owns it like this country hasn't seen in a very long time, in a manner that has some portions of the right wing practically in open revolt against their handlers refusing to attack him over it any more, and even praising him.

But remember everyone, empty suit. No chance in the GE against the terrifying Republican attack machine.

I can only hope more people start catching on to what we have here.

[scheming daemons]

14. Speech bounce!

....

[Megahurtz]

15. Awww Look.....

it didn't work.

[mohc]

16. In one more day

The horrible numbers that produced the 49-42 deficit Obama was in before the speech will roll out of the 3 day average with the next release. For him to be down by just two in today's release he almost certainly was ahead in the last day's polling. Tomorrow's release may very well give him a 2 or 3 point lead depending on just how big he was down by on the polling from the 17th.

A word of caution though: Obama may very well have reestablished his lead since the speech, and that itself is very good. But what these 3 day averages hide is how much of a swing there can be on any single day. Though he was down 7 in that poll release, the results for the single day were probably much worse, I would expect he was down as much as 12 points at the peak of Clinton's support (Just look at the head-to-head polling from SUSA's state polling taken during the same time). Yes he seems to be recovering, but it concerns me that his support dropped so much so quickly. It is quite unusual to see swings that pronounced and there may be potential for it in the future. The good news from this is that Obama responded within the window of the polling and seems to have kept the damage to a minimum. Had he waited 1 or 2 days, we could have been looking at him down 15 in these polls.

[Tropics_Dude83]

24. I have noticed that Obama's support seems somewhat soft as well

Kind of concerning especially in light of New Hampshire but on the other hand, Hillary Clinton's support could be said to be soft as well since her bounce didn't hold. Tough to say. All I know is that I nearly fell off the hopemobile a week ago today. Obama did exactly what I thought he should have done though and survived. Now, I'm back on the hopemobile stronger than I've been in this whole campaign.

[scheming daemons]

25. I think after the Speech, his support isn't as soft as it used to be...

....

[mohc]

27. I'm not so sure

Since Iowa, Obama has seen his national poll numbers rise or hold with the exception of 4 dips. The first dip was after New Hampshire, when the numbers were more volatile, and people were reacting to Clinton's unexpected win. His next two dips were directly before the largest primary days: Super Tuesday and March 4. He dipped about 11 points against Clinton leading into Super Tuesday (-2 to -13) and dipped 12 points leading into March 4 (+8 to -4). With the Wright fiasco, he dipped 13 (+6 to -7). The amount of support he has lost each time is greater each time, although just by a single point. Whats especially troubling is two of these drops were in the days leading up to the big voting days. Unless Obama can show that his numbers have in fact hardened, which I would say the Wright ordeal shows they have not yet, then he will be vulnerable leading into an election if he is not holding larger leads. We will have to wait and see, but if the dips continue, and if the continue to get bigger, we will have a problem.

[TahitiNut]

36. There's no question that the Obama variance is higher than the Clinton variance

.. but the 'soft' top-end support for Obama still isn't as problematic as the 'hard' opposition to Clinton - something she has yet to overcome. The very 'softness' on Obama's upside indicates that the 'hardened' opposition isn't anywhere near the size of Clinton's ... and people are more open to Obama.

As an independent liberal (Kucinich fan) with no horse in this race at this point, this is what I'm seeing even on DU.

[Teaser]

38. none of us are sure of anything

We can just work with the tools we have, and have some faith in them.

[backscatter712]

17. Obama is now fully vetted.

He got literally the worst that the Beltway could throw at him. He was cool, he was calm, he faced pressure, and came out the other side with the greatest speech since I Have A Dream!

This was Obama's 3AM moment, and his response proves that he, more than anyone else, is the one who should be answering that red phone.

[Bullet1987]

20. He's closed the gap post-Speech and it's obvious

Obama's gaining his appeal back as the story is all but dead now and many positive things have happened.

[stratomagi]

21. lol

[barb162]

29. March 20th : Clinton 47, Obama 45 GO HILLARY!!!!

Thanks for posting!

[Georgie_92]

30. GOBAMA!!!!

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

31. Obama's polls are in a death spiral.

Assuming if you're a Clinton supporter, and don't pay attention to math.

[barb162]

40. Take a look at that OP's graph again for the last few days. Clinton's winning

by a few points.

[Abacus]

47. "winning"

Rasmussen Tracking 03/17 - 03/20
45/44 Obama +1.0

CBS News 03/15 - 03/18
46/43 Obama +3.0

CNN 03/14 - 03/16
52/45 Obama +7.0

USA Today/Gallup 03/14 - 03/16
49/42 Obama +7.0

Reuters/Zogby 03/13 - 03/14
47/44 Obama +3.0

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/democratic_presidential_nomination-191.html

Notice that all but one of those are post Wright.

[nxylas]

32. What's the margin of error?

Is the Clinton lead still "statistically significant"?

[Drunken Irishman]

34. Nope. he is now within the MOE.

[backscatter712]

41. Yep. With most polls, it's typically a 4-5% margin of error.

[Orsino]

45. I always ask this question about the Gallup...

...and I think I'm usually told 3-4%.

We really need to relax...and to mistrust polls in general.

[Abacus]

50. I don't trust any single poll

I wouldn't have posted this if Clinton supporters hadn't been salivating over Gallup results only two days ago. I prefer to look at aggregates, like rcp. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/democratic_presidential_nomination-191.html

[nxylas]

55. Gallup looks like a lone voice in that

All the other polls that RCP quotes show Obama still in the lead.

[Teaser]

51. Race is in stasis

Rasmussen and Gallup are *completely* decorrelated the last few days. Tells me that, right now, there are no underlying trends.

[Arkana]

53. We're trending back up, it would seem!

Guess all my pessimism was for nothing.

Goddamn I hate election season. One day it's going to give me an ulcer.

[nell2323]

57. Kick