I'll burn a post on this one. A must read: "Inside Reaction from Latinos on Richardson"

[Tom Rinaldo]

This Mydd Diary was written by someone who monitors spanish language media, where discussion about the racial implications of the coming election seemingly is much more frank than it is either here or on Main Stream Media. Here are some key snippets:


"There are two aspects of Gov. Richardson's endorsement that the Obama campaign is hoping to help them.

One, after two straight weeks of the most challenging time in Obama's 2008 campaign, Gov. Richardson helps stop the negative momentum. In addition, the Obama campaign is hoping that this could push other major party leaders to join in & start a parade of critical endorsments. Thus, pressure the Clinton campaign to end its campaign.

Two, the Obama campaign including Mr. Axelrod & two of his highest ranking Latino strategist in the team are fully aware of one fact.

Fact # 1: Sen. Barack Obama cannot win the Presidency without at least carrying a MINIMUM of 70% of the Latino vote in November.

On at least three occasions in February & one in March, Obama's Latino key leaders in the West Coast & the Midwest have explained this in Spanish radio & Spanish language TV.

Here are some key pointers from the Obama camp.

A) They fully expect that Sen. Obama may receive less white votes in November than any of the previous three Democratic presidential candidates. Its only a critical question of by how much less white support he will receive. They have pointed out key white voting percentages:

2004-John Kerry received = 41% of all white voters
2000- Al Gore received = 42% of all white voters
1996-Bill Clinton = 43% of all white voters

Note: According to Latinos strategist from both Obama & Clinton:
Every one white vote in 2008 is equivalent to 4 Latino votes based on estimated population voter percentages:

With the expected drop in white support, the Latino vote will be the critical key block that is needed to offset the expected loss of white votes in November. They point out key Latino voting percentages :

2004-John Kerry received= 53% of all Latino voters

2000- Al Gore received= 62% of all Latino voters

1996- Bill Clinton= 72% of all Latino voters...



...As Atty. Sanchez & Atty. Espinosa, two of the Obama's major Latino Coordinator in the the Southwest region has stated-

" If Sen. Obama does not win at least 70% of Latino voters in the General election, he will not be the next President of the United States. If he gets the percentage that Kerry or Gore( 53% & 62%) received in 2004 & 2000 from the Latino voters, it just won't be enough. The lower the caucasian support for Sen. Obama, the higher the Latino margin of victory has to be in order to offset that. Black voters are already maxed out, so the only movement, if any, has to come from the Latinos."

The strategist do not see much more movement from African-American voters since they have already reached ceiling support for Barack Obama in the primary. The remaining support 5%-10% in the African-American community will come from current African-American Sen. Clinton supporters...



...While I've heard another Obama Latino strategist state on Spanish talk radio that 37% is the absolute rock bottom number for white voters. Obama cannot get less than that if he is to be competitive. The Latino vote cannot counter the white vote if it goes below that.

Either way, the critical question here is this:

Kerry, Gore & Bill Clinton all received 40%-42% of the white vote. This was with the "white reagan democrats" coming back home to the democratic party.

As opposed to the HORRIBLE nightmare of Dukakis getting just 31% of all white voters & winning just 10 states or Mondale just getting less than 25% of all white voters & winning 1 state.

The Billion Dollar question is can, Sen. Barack Obama win or hold at least 37% of all white voters in order to at least have a chance of being competitive ?

The Million Dollar question is can, Sen. Barack Obama win at least 70% of Latino voters in November ? ( Only Bill Clinton has ever done that at 72% ) ( Gore & Kerry were way off )

The $100,000 question is, John McCain is obviously more popular among Latinos than most Republicans. He has always won Arizona Latinos in big numbers. His Approval rating among Latinos inched even higher in 2007 because of his stand on protecting Latinos on immigration.McCain has won as much as 65% of Latino voters.

All McCain needs in November is take at least 40% of Latino voters in November & its GAME OVER. ( Remember, Bush got 44% of all latino votes in 2000 & won )

So if Bush got 44% of Latino votes in 2000( despite massive Kerry spending on Spanish TV,Radio & Direct mail) inspite of the War in Iraq, can a more popular(among Latinos) McCain get at least 40% ?

http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/3/22/13125/0839


There is much more in the full Diary and I urge people to read all of it. The diariest is currently supporting Hillary Clinton but by no means rabidly so and there are no attacks made on Obama in this entry, just a thorough exploration of some critical electoral dynamics. The diariest closes with this sentiment:

"Either way, I love my party & my country. We cannot afford 4 more years of Republican rule. I am with you 100% Senator Obama if you are the nominee. I will not be the problem. But many of my hermanos & hermanas will be a challenge in November."

[MH1]

1. If the diary is correct, then it looks like VP Richardson.

Which would not make me unhappy.

I think one should not extrapolate that Hillary gets the same percentage of Latino voters that Bill does. And if she wins the nomination by scorched earth tactics, she will lose many percentage points on the AA and youth vote.

Either way we have a challenge.

[mckeown1128]

4. Richardson would be a great VP...

Sure he isn't the most charismatic... but he brings foreign policy experience, latinos, and executive experience.

[Tom Rinaldo]

6. We could do a lot worse than have Richardson as our VP

But conversely that would put two "non-whites" on the same ticket, a potentially risky move. For what it is worth the diariest does not believe Richardson currently has great coat tails in the Hispanic community. In his or her words:

"So what does the Gov. Richarson endorsement do for Latino voters? Particularly for the 70% of who are currently supporting Sen. Clinton ? Not very much. How can he sway Clinton supporters when we actually chose her over him. Its not like we were supporting him as our 1st choice & he is now asking us to change our support. Governor Bill Richardson NEVER owned the support of the Latino community in the first place, so how can he give it away ?

There is only one person who will at least convince a percentage of Latinos to support Obama over McCain. And that's a strong endorsement from no other than Sen. Clinton. But even with that endorsement, hoping for Obama to get 70% of All Latinos in November especially against McCain will be a hell of an goal."

[MH1]

8. Actually, wouldn't the strong endorsement needed be from BILL Clinton?

[Tom Rinaldo]

26. Probably, but Hillary is popular with hispanics also. The irony in your observation

would be humerous if the situation was not so painful. Obama needing the Big Dog to spend some of his remaining poltical capital to help Obama win after the roasting he has received during this campaign.

[billbuckhead]

28. But I thought the Clinton's were racists?

The other irony is that those stats make Hillary look more electable than her soulless empty suited opponent.

[rodeodance]

42. The BO slime machine is in full force here in DU with that Rovian smear

[caledesi]

99. I agree! NT

[PatGund]

64. Actually we would have 100% white.....

Sen. Obama's 50% and Gov. Richardson's 50% :-)

[Tom Rinaldo]

110. LOL n/t

[treestar]

79. Repuke whites are always whining about how whites are a

"minority." So, it could be a smart move. Adds both Latino and
AA voters and there will still be white voters.

And can Obama is probably not worse on immigration (from a pro-immigrant viewpoint) than McBush.

This ticket would be great, because Richardon has the best "experience" record of any of the Democrats, and that counterbalances the assertions Obama does not have enough of it.

[meow mix]

18. the republican base is going to be seriously undercut

i dont see a way they rally up any support (unless hillary was the nominee)


good points in there about the Clinton/Gore/Kerry runs. Our history sucks. This party desperatly needs a radical change.

[GoldieAZ49]

27. Richardson didn't get the latino vote himself

they didn't support him when he was running, as VP isn't going to get any votes

read the whole article

[bpeale]

128. amen from here in new mexico! he won't net obama anything.

edwards supporters are still the prize & they ain't going there.

[rodeodance]

40. YOU forget that BO is running a "scorched earth tactics"

[billbuckhead]

2. Hillary's opponent knows he's unelectable, he's a just a spoiler with a big ego

Richardson's Hispanic? Who knew?

[MH1]

5. Hispanics know that Richardson is Hispanic. nt

[GoldieAZ49]

32. and they didn't vote for him nt

[Guava Jelly]

7. riiiight

:eyes:

[TahitiNut]

69. The standard DLC smear ... when all else fails, use the "unelectable" meme

Kucinich? "Unelectable." Edwards? "Unelectable." Richardson? "Unelectable." Obama? "Unelectable."

Anyone with a liberal or New Deal ideology, or anything close, is "unelectable" in the corporatist world.

No wonder we're in such deep shit in this country. :grr:

[donheld]

116. You maybe ignorant, but hispanics know well.

Actually most of the country knows. It's only been discussed everywhere.

[HCE SuiGeneris]

121. Prove your bullshit that he is "unelectable". You can't. You label yourself as a fool w this tripe.

[tekisui]

3. Obama/Richardson '08!!!

[MilesColtrane]

9. Obama will pull more white votes than Bill Clinton did.

Not only are a few Rep. voters crossing over, he's pulling in a lot of young first time voters.

[billbuckhead]

16. Yeah, like Obamagirl!

:rofl: Wait until you see how many Democrats, white, yellow and brown crossover for McCain.

[GoldieAZ49]

35. not after Wright

25% of white dems would not vote for him prior to Wright (PEW Research)

no repubs after Wright

18% drop of support from indies after Wright


Latinos will not turn out in the numbers needed, they LIKE McCain

[rodeodance]

44. RIGHT

[NJSecularist]

73. Continue to use an outdated poll as a reference tool. n/t

[GoldieAZ49]

78. post a current one that shows it has changed, it is probably worse if anything nt

[treestar]

82. The election is still several months away

It's not that simple.

[anamandujano]

109. People don't forget shit like that.

[Iceburg]

51. Question: Would they be the typically white voters, or atypical white

voters who do not own a TV?

Obama is finished.

[PurityOfEssence]

91. Because you say so.

This is truly disturbing about much of the Obama Campaign: it's a faith-based campaign. I don't only mean the use of religion--that's bad enough--but the sheer, plain "belief" that it's all going as well as the blissful fanatics presume.

If he's the nominee, he's going to have to appeal on the rational level as well as the emotional one, and the negative backlash from his more emotional followers needs to be addressed as well.

This campaign is worse, overall, than the Dean campaign was at its full-flood: people just flatly disregard huge mistakes as "unimportant" and pooh-poo historical trends with the offhanded dismissal that this is such a "new" and glorious page in fabulousness that all pitfalls are insignificant.

Some of the scenarios that present themselves are most troubling, especially one where a gleeful movement sweeps on recklessly, offending and annoying factions here and there while shouting down any dissent. The campaign in the general election could become little more than an in-your-face dare, and if we lose, the recriminations could be incredibly fractious and unpleasant for the left.

[ruggerson]

108. Couldn't agree with you more

and much of it is fueled by an almost pathological hatred of the Clintons.

Not a good way to start out a general election campaign.

[anamandujano]

112. Excellent summary, thank you. I esp. like this quote which threatens

the very life blood of DU. (Well, the quote doesn't threaten, it's the attitude.)

"a gleeful movement sweeps on recklessly, offending and annoying factions here and there while shouting down any dissent."

[Tom Rinaldo]

117. An Obama campaign that increasingly is associated

with negative characterizations of the Clintons, including charges by many Obama supporters that both of the Clinton's are engaged in intentionally racially polorizing the electorate, would NOT be starting out well positioned to win two thirds of the hispanic vote against McCain.

[jackson_dem]

119. Clinton lost the white vote by 1% to Dole, the best Dem since LBJ

Obama is getting 23% of the white vote in PA and loses even 20-25% of white Democrats against McCain. Get real.

[LisaL]

10. A good strategy for winning white vote would be for Obama

to keep talking about "typical white people."
:sarcasm:

[flyarm]

22. AHH THESE ARE THE NEWEST RAGE IN PHILLY!!

http://www.cafepress.com/typicalwp

NO KIDDING!!

[MH1]

29. If so, it is because the right wing radio talkshows are pumping them up,

so why are you?

Hillary has so much baggage and will be such a big draw for the republicans at the polls, they are more than happy to try to help her win - but they know that Obama will probably be the nominee, so making something out of nothing to hurt Obama, helps them either way.

And you want to help them too. Got it.

[LisaL]

33. Obama is quickly acquiring a lot of baggage himself.

[flyarm]

81. ahh because i am a typical white woman who remember his friends

the weathermen planning on blowing up people in Fort Dix..my state......and i don't take lightly to anyone calling white women "typical"..

and i also don't take lightly his weatherman friends and the New Black Panthers on his web site that he conveniently removed last Tuesday..they were fine and dandy on his web site till just last Tuesday..

hmmm...don't worry many of us screeen saved it..i lived through those times.. when the weathermen were blowing shit up...and Black Panthers were planning on killing police and conspiring to blow up buildings ..in NYC...and close enough to Newark when it was burned down..you may not remember it , but i sure as hell do!!

I don't take kindly to my presidents being friends with those who did the blowing up,in our own cities.

Close to where my cousins and grandma lived...unlike Obama i respected and loved my grandma..always..and she lived very close to Fort Dix..when Ayers girlfriend blew herself up!

You may find the guy romantic now..but i assure you he was a killer , and murderer..and he got off on technicalities..but i still know damn well he is a murderer and cold blooded killer..and good friends with Obama.

So i guess i am a "typical white woman" who worries about our own home grown terrorists..being friends with a presumptive nominee for president...from my own party.

Obama is going to be beaten by a landslide in PA..most people in Pa/NJ do not forget..

Only the youth are ignorant to the facts...we grown ups..we are not fooled for a moment!...I am a Jersey gal..i remember..oh yes i remember!!


http://www.discoverthenetworks.org/individualProfile.asp?indid=2169
snip:
Born in 1944, Bill Ayers, along with his wife Bernardine Dohrn, was a 1960s leader of the homegrown terrorist group Weatherman, a Communist-driven splinter faction of Students for a Democratic Society. Characterizing Weatherman as "an American Red Army," Ayers summed up the organization's ideology as follows: "Kill all the rich people. Break up their cars and apartments. Bring the revolution home, Kill your parents."


snip:
A substantial portion of Ayers' book Fugitive Days discusses the author's penchant for building and deploying explosives. Ayers boasts that he "participated in the bombings of New York City Police Headquarters in 1970, of the Capitol building in 1971, and the Pentagon in 1972." Of the day he bombed the Pentagon, Ayers says, "Everything was absolutely ideal. ... The sky was blue. The birds were singing. And the bastards were finally going to get what was coming to them."
snip:
All told, Ayers and Weatherman were responsible for 30 bombings aimed at destroying the defense and security infrastructures of the U.S. "I don't regret setting bombs, said Ayers in 2001, "I feel we didn't do enough."

In 1970, Ayers' then-girlfriend Diana Oughton, along with Weatherman members Terry Robbins and Ted Gold, were killed when a bomb they were constructing exploded unexpectedly. That bomb had been intended for detonation at a dance that was to be attended by army soldiers at Fort Dix, New Jersey. Hundreds of lives could have been lost had the plan been successfully executed. Ayers attested that the bomb would have done serious damage, "tearing through windows and walls and, yes, people too."

[AllentownJake]

95. I remember

Every damn scandal in the 1990s. There seemed to be a new one a week till finally we had Monica.

I remember losing both the house and Senate in 1994.

I remember the chance of Healthcare for all being killed by the first ladies arrogance and secrecy.

I remember too and I'm 29.

BTW I hate NJ

[flyarm]

136. sorry honey..you don't remember newark burning and buildings being bombed in Jersey and Philly ..

by Obama's buddies..and endorsers who were proudly placed on his web site until he scrubbed it last tuesday..

no one died with Monica..but many died with the weathermen...

and personally i don't give a rats ass what you hate..since i have lived in 9 states and 4 countires in my adult life..i have found good and bad in many..but the mid west almost killed me..with no ocean..and actually i live in two states now..

oh and my son is older than you by a year..and i could tell how immature you were by your post..

and no you don't remember because you weren't alive when Obama's friends the Weathermen were killing people and domestic terrorists!

[bread_and_roses]

124. Good goddess, so Obama's now morphed into violent revolutionary?

Get a grip. That shoe sure does pinch when it's on the other foot, doesn't it? White people outraged by a few hard words from a minister and a reference to "typical" white people - but goddess forfend that black people get the least bit irritated by the daily toll of both bigoted individuals and institutionalized racism in this country. Not to mention the by the sub-text of racism in virtually everything the Republicans have run on for forty years. Oh, no, to speak honestly about any of that is to "play the race card" - a term itself steeped in institutionalized racism.

And yes, I'm a white person, a woman in her late 50's, and I remember the days you speak of quite well, thank you. And there is not one word in anything Obama has said that supports racial violence.

[flyarm]

135. no his friends are ..may i suggest you educate yourself to who his friends are !!

and it wasn't me who had the new black panthers on my web site until this past tuesday..it was Obama who did..yes they endorsed him and displayed the endorsement proudly on the Obama for pres web site until it was exposed when he did his little bullshit speech!

then it got scrubbed pronto!!

[LisaL]

31. I am not surprised. It's real catchy.

[DangerousRhythm]

129. I doubt it.

That shirt is quite poorly designed. Nice try, though.

[GoldieAZ49]

36. he will get the typical white response to his mentor Wright

[treestar]

85. Come on, white people do it all the time

Typical rednecks, etc.

And it's not as if blacks have not been the subject of generalizations by white people.

Then you are overlooking, Obama is half white and therefore entitled to talk about white people too.

Only a repuke would pretend to be offended by Obama referring to his own relative as typical of her race.

[anamandujano]

113. Banco!

[DB1]

11. Impt Post. Thanks

[NJSecularist]

12. We need to hope that Obama does better than 41% with the white vote.

Because getting 70% of the Latino vote, especially against McCain, will be very tough to do. We also need to hope for increased black turnout.

[Tom Rinaldo]

Latinos in the Democratic primaries are breaking two to one for Clinton over OBama

The diariest makes an important point. If we nominate Obama over Clinton, the person whose strong support Barack Obama will most need to compete for the hispanic vote is none other than Hillary Clinton.

[NJSecularist]

15. I expect a large majority of them who vote for Hillary to vote for Obama in the general

But there will be swing Latino voters, those who would consider voting for McCain. Obama needs to keep those swing voters in our camp. That is imperative if we want to win the general election.

[billbuckhead]

21. Hispanic men hate voting for a woman but they did to vote for Clinton

Wait until you see how popular McCain is with Hispanics and the good job the corporate Hispanic media does selling him. Hillary's opponent's strategy is a fantasy. I wonder if putting Richardson on the ticket will help with white voters? Hillary's opponent has painted himself into a corner with Reverend Wright and that Emil fella.

[okasha]

59. Not necessarily.

The worst sexist puerquito of my personal acquaintance came out for Hillary while I was still happy with any one of Clinton, Edwards or Obama and really hoping for Gore to jump in. He based his decision strictly on electability.

There are a lot of younger Hispanic men who are at least as liberated as their Anglo counterparts--they're men who have grown up with strong mothers, strong grandmothers, married strong women. In my area, local races have yielded not just good women candidates but actually elected them.

But. Hispanics are also very patriotic in a very traditional way. If it's an Obama-McCain match-up, the Hispanic vote goes to McCain on his war-hero status and his years in the Senate. There's no way in hell Obama is going to hit 70% there.

[NJSecularist]

70. What is Hillary's strategy?

Depressing black turnout? Winning the only 75-80% of the black vote?

Hillary isn't winning the election without 90% of the black vote with normal turnout. And to assume they are just going to come back to Hillary if she wins the nomination is a faulty assumption.

[Tom Rinaldo]

75. She will fight for every vote

Hillary Clinton showed up at the State of the Black Union Conference in person during the critical last days before the March 4th elections when it could persuasively be argued she needed to be out on the campaign trail rather than dialoging with African Americans who overwhelmingly were supporting her opponent.

But in the 2008 elections the number of Latino voters for the first time is expected to equal the number of African American voters. I fear it more likely that Obama would lose a significantly larger percentage of the Latino vote to John McCain than Hillary Clinton would, and that more Latinos are likely to consider defecting (not just staying home) to vote for John McCain against Obama than Blacks would support McCain against Clinton.

[NJSecularist]

77. That is an assumption that is based more in wishful thinking than anything else. n/t

[okasha]

61. Don't.

You're kidding yourself.

[flyarm]

83. do not for a moment count on that!..My hubby is hispanic..and says he will vote for McCain before

he votes for Obama..and he has never voted republican!

His brothers and cousins all say the same thing!

[treestar]

87. Why?

What issues are behind this?

[flyarm]

145. They all served this country in Army uniforms.that is why!

and i can not print what they have called Obama and his pastor!

[GoldieAZ49]

63. look for pigs to start flying waiting for that endorsement nt

[flyarm]

24. he will lose the Florida Electoral votes and the Michigan Electoral votes.

how many Wyomings and Utah's will it take to make them up????????

hahaha i even make myself laugh..throw in Idaho...hahaha...oh pleaseeeeeeeeeee...

he will not and can not win Fla in Nov..it will not happen..in fact i predict a landslide away from him..he is nuclear now in Fla.


and hell Richardson had 1 person come to caucus for him at the large caucus I was at Iowa, when i was a precinct co-captain at a caucus...what were his numbers there???????

not very good..

and do check out his numbers in Fla..he was on our ballot..

and gee..his state voted for Hillary..that will surely make his people happy now won't it?

not..i know a lady who is high up in the Dem exec part of the party in NM..and she, right now, is furious at him.

so lets see..Obama says the superdelegates need to follow the will of the people's votes..well now ..Richardson, Kerry, and Kennedy have told their constitutants to go fuck themselves..so much for Obama's unity huh????????

[DemocratSinceBirth]

49. Let's Start With A Ridiculously Optimistic Assumption

Every African American adult votes for Barack Obama... He then starts with 12% of the vote... He still needs 43% of the non African American vote in a two man race...

[GoldieAZ49]

68. I would be surprised if he got 15% of the non AA vote nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

96. He will do a lot better than fifteen percent!

The question is how much...

If he only got 15% of the non African American vote he would end up with 26% of the vote... That's not likely...

[anamandujano]

114. The article stated that the black vote has maxed out and Obama has

antagonized whites with his preachy apologist speech for Wright.

Good night and good luck. He's screwed himself. It couldn't happen to a nicer race baiter.

[BeyondGeography]

13. MyDD always paints the worst possible picture for Obama

It's a safe bet that only the least charitable turnout models for Obama produce these kinds of numbers.

That said, Richardson will be on the very short list.

[Tom Rinaldo]

19. This wasn't in any way a hit Diary. Most projections cited are directly from Obama's camp

I hope you read the whole thing. I think you are inverting the analysis. Only the most charitable turnout models for Obama can produce different kinds of numbers. The benchmarks cited are historically valid and very real. Hispanics traditionally are not as loyal a Democratic constituency as African Americans, and though they have turned against Bush, they noticed that John McCain got bloodied in the Republican field for advocating a more merciful stance toward Mexican undocumenteds in the United States than virtually anyone else in the Republican party.

[BeyondGeography]

55. It's not a hit diary, but it's written by a Clinton supporter who says only Clinton's blessing

can secure the Latino vote for Obama. Which undermines his credibility just a little, don't you think?

[Tom Rinaldo]

57. I never argue against the application of a grain of salt while digesting

the political writing of anyone who has a specific political view point, lol. But the Diary does lay out a solid framework for a useful discussion. We can disagree on the intrepretation of the political landscape that was laid out in front of us, but it is useful for us all to at least look at.

[BeyondGeography]

62. Agreed...it's a worthy thread

Let's just hope Richardson never learns how meaningless his background is to Latino voters. :sarcasm:

[BootinUp]

14. This is obviously garbage...

Bush did not win in 2000, the author has discredited himself. /sarcasm

[The Backlash Cometh]

17. In Latin America, education transcends color.

If someone is educated, it doesn't matter how black they are, they are respected. Maybe American Dem strategists should work on reminding latinos that their culture is more evolved than the American media would want them to remember.

[GoldieAZ49]

41. Have you looked at race relations in Latin America?

It would be interesting to see if your theory holds up

[The Backlash Cometh]

98. This is the way it was where I grew up.

[rodeodance]

45. it comes with time

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

20. 50.1% of Americans would do it.

Fuck the demographics bullshit. It's designed to disharmonize and keep people from voting in their own interests.



50.1% of Americans.



Less if there is third party drainage.

[rodeodance]

23. REC

[GoldieAZ49]

25. Richardson didn't get the latino vote himself

He doesn't have the popularity McCain does


this from the article

So what does the Gov. Richarson endorsement do for Latino voters? Particularly for the 70% of who are currently supporting Sen. Clinton ? Not very much. How can he sway Clinton supporters when we actually chose her over him. Its not like we were supporting him as our 1st choice & he is now asking us to change our support. Governor Bill Richardson NEVER owned the support of the Latino community in the first place, so how can he give it away ?


Remember this IMPORTANT FACT about LATINOS/HISPANICS.

It is a Swing Voting Block. It is NEVER shy to vote Republican.
The 4 Top Republican Latino vote getters in history are George W. Bush, John McCain, Arnold Schwarzenegger & Mel Martinez)
In fact, All were successful against Democrats in large part because of Latino crossover.

So for those of you who falsely doubt that Latino democrats will cross party lines to vote Republican, its not a threat. Its reality. History has proven that.

*************

Thanks for the post, it wasn't a waste

[billbuckhead]

34. Just another nuclear power industry stooge like Hillary's opponent

[rodeodance]

84. That is prob. the most imp. part of the post.

[MindMatter]

30. It is an interesting set of opinions. I don't buy any of them.

I hope Obama gets 70% of the Latino vote. But to say that 70% is necessary is nonsense. It is a grossly simplistic view of the electoral process.

To state, as a matter of fact, that Obama is expected to receive a reduced share of the white vote is a really ignorant position. There are huge numbers of voters registering. And the primary turnout for Democrats (mostly white people) has been staggering. A person could certainly make an argument or express an opinion that he things the share will go down, but it if far from certain. I'd say it is extremely likely that turnout will drive the white share UP!

Rather than twisting the facts to inflate the importance of the Latino vote, I'd much rather read an article that talks about why any Latino would support a Republican in the first place. That would be much more useful for us to understand.

[Tom Rinaldo]

37. So you flat out call the diariest a liar or you call Obama's own campaign people wrong

"On at least three occasions in February & one in March, Obama's Latino key leaders in the West Coast & the Midwest have explained this in Spanish radio & Spanish language TV.

Here are some key pointers from the Obama camp.

A) They fully expect that Sen. Obama may receive less white votes in November than any of the previous three Democratic presidential candidates. Its only a critical question of by how much less white support he will receive. They have pointed out key white voting percentages..."

[GoldieAZ49]

38. he went with option 3

Some people can't handle the truth

[MindMatter]

120. Do I really have to explain the difference between "may" and "will"?

[Tom Rinaldo]

126. We are splitting words. One doen't believe this...

"Its only a critical question of by how much less white support he will receive" without assuming that Obama WILL receive a smaller percentage of the White vote than recent previous Democratic candidates.

My main point though was that Obama campaign stratagists are working with an operating assumption that Obama will not do quite as well with Whites as Kerry did. Obviously everything is speculative at this point and as such anything is possible, but it is their job to be realistic.

[MindMatter]

134. As they should. There is no benefit for them to be talking trash.

But behind the scenes, they see the same numbers we have all seen. If Democrats can keep the Clintons from screwing the pooch, there is a very real possibility of a highly mobilized Democratic voter base this November. It simply is not true or defensible that Obama *HAS* to win 70% of the Latino vote in order to become President.

But if I were one of his strategists, I would play it exactly as they have. Nothing is gained by telling the Latino population that they aren't important. I hope Obama wins 80% of the Latino vote, and if he only gets 50% of it, he can still be our next president. Obviously if he gets 80% of the Latino vote (even ignoring the Cuban vote), his odds of winning the presidency become very high.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

54. Because Latinos Have Displayed A Willingness To Support Republicans In The Past

Especially Cuban Americans...

The vast majority of Latinos in America are not Cuban but their votes are up for grabs too...

Bush* made inroads into the Latino community because they don't see him a xenophobe...

[treestar]

90. That is what I would like to know

All I can guess at is that they may be mostly Catholic, and thus going to the right over the social issues? And if McBush is not an ogre on immigration, that makes him perfect for them. But then Obama is not an ogre on immigration either. Economic issues would help Obama with the Latinos, perhaps.

[MindMatter]

122. That's the best explanation I have heard

But that then leads to the question,

Why would any Catholic (or other religious person) vote for a Republican? These are the guys that just killed over 100,000 people for what? It is enough to make one wonder if religious people ever think for themselves.

[treestar]

125. I've been arguing this with my Catholic, republican-voting

(solely over abortion) relatives. To them, the fetus is a real person. I've tried pointing out that the people in Iraq are real people, too, plus since they are already born and known, it doesn't end when they die; as their survivors are now angry at the U.S. So why vote republican when the death count will be so much worse and it can spiral into that sort of hatred that means the deaths continue over generations?

The republicans also possibly don't oppose abortion for very pure reasons; they don't mind if the same people are killed 20 years later in one of their adventuring wars; and it can even be implied that's the reason they want all those births to occur. The old cannon fodder argument.

[MindMatter]

137. Show them the facts

Their republican buddies talk a good story when they are demagoguing the issue. But in fact it appears to make no difference whatsoever which party is in charge.

See the data table in this pdf:
http://www.guttmacher.org/pubs/2006/08/03/ab_incidence.pdf

In 1980, there were 30 abortions per 100 pregnancies that ended either in birth or abortion. That ratio has been steadily declining since 1980 -- and it is almost perfectly linear -- making absolutely no difference which party was in the WH nor which party controlled the Congress.

Almost all of us are against abortion. But some people just want to use the issue to whip up reptilian passions in the electorate. Others prefer to address the greater issue. The way to continue this positive trend is through education and economic development, not through laws. Tougher laws will just bring back the coat hangers, and that is no good for anybody. We need to elect leaders who are passionate about giving the best educational opportunities to ALL our citizens, not just the well-off ones that can already afford private school. Democrats are fundamentally more committed on this issue.

And what is the point of having an education if your government adopts policies that reward companies for exporting the best jobs? Again, Democrats are fundamentally more committed on this issue.

You cannot be "pro life" and be against the things the, in fact, reduce the number of abortions.

[roseBudd]

39. One point of contention, AA turnout will increase if Obama is the nominee...

There is a lot of room for new voters whose previous participation is not reflected in prior elections. Low income people have historically low turn out. AAs are a disproportionate percentage of low income people.

[ElsewheresDaughter]

46. But, AA's are only 13% of the US population .

[roseBudd]

50. and the most loyal democratic voters, which is why the GOP targets them for suppression

can Clinton afford to piss on that voting bock?

Not to mention the moral issue of using people for their votes and then screwing them over

Fact, the white majority will be slipping below 50% in the coming years. The GOP knows this also.

[Tom Rinaldo]

60. I will never make a case for Democrats taking the Black vote for granted

Never. I might argue in a given instance that no slight was intended against African Americans, but yes, you clearly are right. No Democrat, Clinton included, can afford to piss on that voting block. And to not muddy my strong agreement with what you posted, I'll leave it at that with this reply.

[treestar]

93. What percentage are the fundies?

When extremely motivated, they had disproportionate influence, motivating other republicans. The same could be said here, maybe.

[Tom Rinaldo]

47. I'll agree with that

I suspect that is the reason why the Obama strategists who were cited argue that Obama could win a lower percentage of the white vote than either Gore or Kerry did and still win the election. The diariest heard figures of 39& and 37% given as the bedrock minimum of the white vote that Obama had to retain. Bill Clinton, Al Gore, and John Kerry each received between 40% and 42% of the white vote ands only Bill Clinton won the White House and only Bill Clinton managed to also receive 70% of the hispanic vote. Dukakis got 31% of the white vote in his loss.

African Americans are a minority group in America. New Democratic African American voters need to increas four fold compared to a heightened rate of white Democratic veters defecting Republicans, in order for Obama to only hold his own with John Kerry's performance.

[roseBudd]

52. Kerry & Obama or Obama & Gore are apples & oranges, Obama has something our previous losingc

candidates do not. Richardson spoke to this. It is something you cannot learn from an acting coach.

If Romney were the GOP nominee I would be less worried about the annoyingness and unlikeabilty of Clinton because she would be up against a robot.

McCain has shown he has a personality.

[ElsewheresDaughter]

53. and we all know what the outcome of the Kerry run was

get ready for 100 more wars

[roseBudd]

65. what part of Kerry had no charisma do you not understand? Democrats keep nominating wonks and they

lose. Hillary is Kerry without the height, without the experience, a person who enters any race with a block of voters who really dislike her.

[canucksawbones]

86. and the new voters

I also think that it has been well shown that a large block of young and new voters have turned out in support of Obama, and that may well skew statistics from previous. I expect that this election will have record setting numbers of voters out.

Historically, hispanics have also been the most fickle about actually voting, the African American population is more reliable (and more reliably democratic)

I think the other problem with the OPs breakdown, is that it does not really take into account electoral college issues. Gaining 70% of the hispanic vote is not so much an issue in a number of states that are very hispanic. California is likely to go democratic, no matter the nominee, Florida is likely to go Republican, no matter the nominee, Texas is likely to go Republican, no matter the nominee, Arizona is likely going to McCain, he is the hometown boy, Mew Mexico is a toss up, but a drive from Richardson is really going to help (and he will stump for either in the end) Colorado will be tough for Obama, easier for Clinton, but not a sure bet either way.

The real picture really is that the vast, vast majority of Clinton or Obama supporters for all bile that has been spewed will unite and vote democratic, but independents will veer McCain because of bad blood (will hurt Obama as this is his column to lose, less support in this column for Clinton) and the older population will veer McCain because of bad blood (will hurt Clinton, as this is her column to lose, less support in this column for Obama)

I think in the short view, Hilary Clinton has a slightly better chance in the GE, but it will cost the Democratic Party in the Congress and will likely make future elections tougher for Democratic Party. I think in the long view, Barack Obama will have a slightly tougher road to the White House (but still very doable) but has a better chance of gaining house and senate seats on his coat tails (those energized new voters are more likely to vote a straight Dem ticket, whereas Clinton voters may split tickets, be more likely to vote for Republican incumbents). I also think that if Obama is the nominee those young new voters will likely stay voting and stay democratic. Most voters tend to stay with the path they choose young. Obama has the likelihood of creating the best long term dynamic for the Democratic Party.

I don't have a horse in the race as a Canadian. I don't think either candidate is going to be the great atrocity that avid fans on one side thing the other candidate would be. Certainly McCain is exactly that atrocity. I think Obama may be a better face to show the outside world, I think he is more likely to take advice from his trusted aides and be a better delegator, which I think are required leadership assets, especially with foreign policy. Whether he would be better than Clinton from an purely stateside point of view, I don't think I can really comment (nor do I think it's really my right to do so)

Anyway, that's my (grossly inflated) 2 cents

Grant

Good judgement comes from experience. Experience comes from bad judgement
attributed to Mullah Nasrudin. the Sufi sage/fool (born c. 1208)

[ElsewheresDaughter]

43. So if Obama's VP turns out to be Richardsonit will make what Carville said correct....

I really hope that this is not the case.

[GoldieAZ49]

48. what did carville say?

[ElsewheresDaughter]

56. Carville said that "How ironic that Richardson betrays the Clintons for 30 pieces of silver".....

on Holy Thursday (the day of Judas' betrayal of Christ) of Holy Week...Carville is very Catholic

Richardson found out that Hillary had no intention of making him her VP

[GoldieAZ49]

58. Wow, didn't hear that. Pretty harsh words! thanks for the info nt

[anamandujano]

115. Obama will not offer Veep to Richardson either. He's not a sexy choice.

Recall during the debates, he looked like he was ready to lapse into a coma and sucked on a lemon to stay awake.

[NorthernSpy]

66. WTF? Mondale got ~40% of the white vote -- not "less than 25%"...

:wtf:


I think his numbers are off.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

76. No Way Could Mondale Have Got 40% Of The White Vote

He lost 59% -41% while receiving 90% non white support...

[Hutzpa]

67. There they go again with

brown black divide, some people are just not ready for change.

Hillary Clinton and her family of cult are not ready to go into
the wilderness easily.....well, whether they like it or not they
are going, even if it causes her to kick and scream she is done.

I finally have come to a conclusion that Hillary and her entourage
carry deep rooted bigotry


Any other candidate would have given up this fight, her and the
family of cult do not care about America except the corporatist
masters.

The argument is there for all to see....

[Tom Rinaldo]

71. That is a farce

and the true fairy tale of this election season. Do you beleive for an instant that any politician ever running for national office, Democrat or Republican, has not studied demographics and targetted voter registration and GOTV along racial lines when racial lines indiciate unequal levels of support for the competing candidates?

Did you not read in the Diary cited in my OP that most of the observations about threshold support levels needed to be reached by race to win the 2008 election were made by Obama's own team?

[NJSecularist]

74. You are right.

There is nothing wrong with using identity demographics. That is the way politics work.

[rodeodance]

88. " Hillary and her entourage carry deep rooted bigotry" Op is talking demographics.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

94. You Do Know That The Democratic Presidential Candidate Hasn't Won A Majority Of The White Vote

In Forty Four Years...

That's just a fact... The Democratic presidential candidate needs to find those votes elsewhere...

I don't know how Hillary Clinton's presence or absence alters that fact...

[saltpoint]

72. Obama, who opposed the Iraq War from the start, will eclipse Bill

Clinton's total in Latino voter support because added to the contrast with pro-Surge 100-years-or-bust McCain, Obama offers resolution to the legitimate concerns on the part of many poor and working class Hispanic families that their daughters and sons will not die under a McCain-crafted Middle East war policy.

[okasha]

101. Hispanics tend to be pro-military.

That's especially true in areas like Texas with large numbers of military installations, which in turn provide large numbers of good civilian support jobs.

They also tend to be very traditionally patriotic, as I've pointed out several times. All it's going to take to alienate the Hispanic vote from Obama is the McCain ad pairing Rev. Wright's "God damn America" with Obama's refusal to repudiate him. Kiss it good-bye right there.

[saltpoint]

103. Yes, Americans generally tend to be pro-military, but they want the war

that military supports to be worthy of their daughters' and sons' lives.

This one isn't.

[okasha]

118. As may be.

You may have noticed that a large number of Hispanics supported Bush, who began the war in Afghanistan, invaded Iraq and continues to pursue a policy that may well get us into war with Iran. You won't get a lot of traction with "Obama made a fine speech against the war in 2002" in that demographic.

For people who are first-generation college graduates and newly middle-class, the Clinton economic boom and eight years without major military actions are a lot more important.

[saltpoint]

131. That middle class is getting smaller as we speak and crosses more than

one Democratic.

You are mistaken on the first-generation college graduates; they are overwhelmingly for Senator Obama.

[okasha]

138. Perhaps I didn't make myelf clear.

I'm speaking about Hispanics who are newly middle-class and first-generation college grads, in no small part thanks to NAFTA.

[saltpoint]

140. I would say in imperative part owed to their honest and true abilities.

There was no law in place prohibiting middle class anyones from applying to college.

IMO Hispanic families produce utterly equivalent young women and men as college aspirants, as borne out in increasing enrollment and graudation rates.

The Clintons did not grant anyone capacity. That is natural-born and wondrous and completely non-partisan.

[okasha]

141. You're not usually dense, Crusoe.

People don't go to college unless they can afford it. The economic boom NAFTA brought to the US/Mexican border allowed many Hispanics to go to college who would otherwise not have had either the cash or the time.

This isn't opinion, by the way. I'm talking about my own students and what they said about their own lives--that being able to go into banking and import-export, even at entry level, then move up as they completed courses, gave them the financial capacity to continue to a degree. And I'm talking about young men and women whose parents were migrant workers, day laborers, housekeepers.

[saltpoint]

142. That would appear, then, to cast Bill Richardson as anti-Hispanic.

Which I am not buying. Ya know?

'Dense' becomes a strong word in some contexts.

[okasha]

143. It's more like Guili has put himself in a position

where many Hispanics are going to be anti-Richardson.

[saltpoint]

144. Disagree. I think Gov. Richardson helped a LOT of people this

week with his endorsement.

And I'm proud of him.

[okasha]

146. I agree.

To paraphrase Walt Whitman, "He is large, he contains multitudes. . ."

Seriously, the only person Guili helped was himself.

Maybe.

If Obama doesn't decide two minority men on the ticket isn't one too many.

If Obama doesn't decide he'd be better off with a VP who doesn't outclass him so badly on experience.

[stevenleser]

80. These stats do not take into account the increased black turnout

and percentages that Obama will get in the GE versus the past Democratic nominees you cited. Obama will get significantly more turnout and higher percentages of black voters than any other Presidential candidate in history. If we include those, it probably puts the Latino vote requirement back in the normal 50%-60% range required for a Democrat to win the election.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

92. If Every African American Adult Votes For Him He Starts With 12.8 % Of The Vote

That still means he needs to get 41% -43% of the non African American vote...

[stevenleser]

97. Still not useful, no offense intended, but...

How many and what percentage of African American voters voted in past elections and what percentage voted for the Democratic candidates that the OP mentioned. In order to have a valid and useful comparison regarding what percentage of the Latino and White vote that Obama needs and how that compares to past Democratic Presidential candidates, we need this additional information.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

100. How Is Not Useful?

According to the census 12.8 % of Americans are African Americans...If every African American votes and votes for Barack Obama he starts with 12.8% of the vote... That means he needs to get 43% of voters who are not African American.


Here's the demographic break down for 2004:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html

All of the information was in the seminal post...At the end of the day , the Democratic candidate needs 90% of the African American vote and 70% or so of the Latino vote to make up his or her defecit with white voters... The last Democratic presidential candidate to win a majority of white voters was Lyndon Baines Johnson...

[Honeycombe8]

89. When WILL Clinton supporters learn to post succinct and to the point posts that people actually read

I mean, this is the length of a short chapter of a book. I started off reading it.....and reading it......and reading it....but I started falling asleep and decided to move on, because of COURSE if something is this long....it must, by definition, be boring (seein's how it is only one topic).

This coulda been cut down to 3 paragraphs. Think about it.

:rant:

[rodeodance]

105. We can read and comprehend. Do you have problem with those characteristers?

[golddigger]

102. REC!

[Turn CO Blue]

104. These stats do not take into account the greatly increased youth

turnout - youth meaning everybody below 49 years old, but especially everybody under 29. This time, the turnout of the under-49s are going to more than match the over-49s. If the boomers think they want to give us McCain (not the boomers on DU obviously) well, they've got another think coming.

The Gen-X and Gen-Y REGARDLESS OF THE RACE OR ETHNICITY are NOT going to put up with it and they're not going to let it be stolen. The under-49s are going to turn out to vote this time and they'll be voting for Obama.

[milkyway]

106. So the only determining factor in how a person will vote is race? Not party, policies, character,

gender, etc. Voters only look at race when they vote. I never knew that.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

107. No

But the more information you have about a certain person the more likely it is you know how they are going to react... If that wasn't the case we might as well shut down our colleges of social science...

[ElsewheresDaughter]

133. Obama chose to make it about race with his Rev and his speech &it will be about & patriotism in Nov

if Obama is the nom....the issues will disappear even more in the GE

[EFerrari]

111. I question that Kerry was way off. That was a talking point right after the election

and it turned out to be untrue. It was more true that BushCo stole more among Latinos -- such as in New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada, iirc.

And this Latina is ready to go. :)

[cooolandrew]

123. Ok I am sold on Richardson can't see Obama's white support go as low as that though.

[David Zephyr]

127. Tom, I love you, but you really need to come up for fresh air from that dark rabbit hole.

You are torturing yourself with this sort of logic.

It's OK.

You can let it go.

It's OK.

Come up to the sunlight and fresh air. Spring has arrived.

I'm preparing the welcome banners for your arrival to the Obama Camp.

It will be a great day. I promise.

:)

[Tom Rinaldo]

132. Ah, a spring picnic

Can I pass on the Kool Aid though? :)

[David Zephyr]

139. Well, surely a little sip wouldn't hurt...

:)

[Hatchling]

130. k&r