IF Obama Wins The Nomination...

[iamjoy]

If Obama wins the nomination and the delegates from Florida (or Michigan) are not seated (on account of the states' rogue primaries) can Obama expect to carry these states in the general? Can Obama win in November without them?

[QC]

1. No to both questions. n/t

[Nitrogenica]

6. Why not?

[LisaL]

15. Well, for one, there would be a lot of pissed off people.

Who would be upset they didn't get to chose the nominee.
For other, it would be hard for Obama to win FL anyway.

[Nitrogenica]

19. That's a pretty big assumption. You think they want mcCain to win once we pick our nominee?

Not everyone is so "sensitive" you know.

We have to keep our eye on the big picture, and I think everyone in the Country knows what we get with a right wing President.

I think your assumptions are disgustingly negative.

[LisaL]

27. Everybody in the country knew what they get with Bush, yet they

still voted for his second term.
By the way whatever gives you an idea that Obama could win FL?
Any polls show him ahead of McCain?

[Nitrogenica]

32. It's a long way to November, lizzy. Polls are meaningless.

We're going to destroy McCain with EITHER Clinton or Obama.....PERIOD.

Because we have the netroots, the organization and a clear landslide for the Dems in every single states turnout for the primarys and caucuses. I think the polls right now have proven themselves are only showing part of a bigger picture, and have been off time and time again.

You people are nuts.

[QC]

25. Good answer.

Both of those states are pretty evenly divided anyway, so it would not take losing many votes in either of them to make us lose them.

[Nitrogenica]

34. Oh cry me a river. I've never seen such a bunch of pessimistic people.

Someone call the waaaambulance.

I think we can and will win the Whitehouse no matter who we run.

McCain is a douche.

[QC]

38. If you don't mind my asking,

how old are you?

[Nitrogenica]

40. 45

[QC]

41. OK, then you remember well elections like '84 and '88.

I do as well, which might have made me a bit of a pessimist regarding our party's ability to lose elections.

[Nitrogenica]

43. Well I understand that, however, I think that there has been a shocking

amount of failure with the current administration and their Right wing policies.

Now we see what we get with their ideology taken to it's extreme limits.

McCain is perhaps the worst communicator I've ever seen run for President, in a year that they need someone to bring their side together.

If there's one thing we can all agree on, its that in EVERY STATE we've seen a massive turnout for the Dems, and a way energized one.

Here in Minneapolis it was just crazy, it's the biggest turnout some of the veteran caucus workers have ever seen.

Let's try to keep this conversation going, I don't see anyone discussing the Dems vs. Republicans turnout state after state.

Republicans see this, trust me on that. They see the fundraising numbers too.

I think it's completely absurd to try to convince people we're going to lose. Lets use the momentum and keep things moving in the right direction and not blow it by acting like losers.

[ingac70]

2. I think he would carry MI...

FL has been a long lost cause anyhow. It isn't needed to win.

[SoFlaJet]

20. As a Floridian I agree

this is red state territory now with the exception of a few counties-which is why trying to win elections using 2000 rules doesn't work any more and why people like James Carville and Terry McCauliffe are ALREADY obsolete. Dean's 50 state strategy is proving itself to be a smart tactic that the republicans haven't yet caught up with-LIKE the 2000 key state one that lost us the last 2 presidential cycles. Oh yea, Michigan? Obama wins going away...

[Kittycat]

36. I agree completely.

I don't think we have any chance of getting FL with either candidate. But MI needs jobs, and McCain is not going to bring that to them. I think MI is Obama's for the taking.

[Nitrogenica]

3. Of course he will carry these states.

[slinkerwink]

4. I think he'd get MI

[Buzz Clik]

5. Considering the role of the Republicans in the moving the primary dates, ...

I think the GOP is far more vulnerable.

[FreakinDJ]

11. Another example of Repukes taking away Dem votes

[LisaL]

12. Hah?

GOP did not lose all their delegates.

[Buzz Clik]

23. They lost half their delegates, but that isn't my point.

It was the local GOP who fucked them around. To blame Obama would be misguided. (The local Dems also voted for changing the primary date, but there seems to be a lot of denial on this subject -- taking responsibility for ones's actions is not a strong point within political circles.)

[iamjoy]

50. That Is Irrelevant

Florida Democrats do not blame the GOP for loss of votes, many blame Howard Dean. This may be misguided, but there it is. The Florida Democratic Party has not helped by attacking Dean. Other Floridians (included one on DU) have posted many entries trying to set the record straight and blaming the Florida Democratic Party. There is little public outrage at the Republicans.

Blame Dean and the DNC, blame the Florida Democratic Party, blame the Democrats in the Florida legislature and it all comes down to the same thing - blame the Democrats in one way or another. We are falling for the Republican divide and conquer scheme.

So, you have millions of Florida Democrats that in November are pissed off at one or more of these Democratic groups. Some may even personally blame Obama for ignoring them in the primary and not caring to count their votes. True or not, fair or not, this will be the perception. Do you think the Republicans will not continue to make an issue of this, fanning the anger to the point where many stay home?

[MH1]

14. Only if the local Dems actually start pointing the blame finger where it belongs.

Instead of at the candidates and the DNC.

[LisaL]

16. The democrats all voted to move the primary.

WTF do you expect them to point the finger?

[SoFlaJet]

24. Look...

our most important issue as a Florida democrat was getting a paper trail-the GOP tacked it on to a bill that moved our primary date-bottom line is this: we Florida democrats WILL come out to vote in droves in November but with all the monkey business that gets done down here I have little faith that the GOP won't be able to steal the state regardless. We will NOT say "oh the DENC screwed us so we ain't voting", no we are even MOREE hungry to see our democratic nominee this summer

[iamjoy]

51. Wouldn't Have Done Any Good Otherwise

The Democrats didn't have enough votes to stop it anyway. Look, I admit, at best it was political cowardice and at worst enough of them did want it earlier.

[LisaL]

7. Nope.

Starting off with 48 states.
Nice.

[tekisui]

8. No one can expect to win ANY states.

We have to get out there and work for every vote.

That being said, yes, Obama can win the GE without FL. And he can win without MI. OH, CO, MO, VA, NM are all potential Dem states this election. Various combinations can do it.

[leftofcool]

9. No way!

[CreekDog]

10. there's a tradeoff here

if there are revotes, it prolongs the primary calendar and that makes it harder to win any state in November.

further, if Obama knows he is going to win, he can simply move to seat Michigan and Florida as voted in January. if he knows that seating them will simply be another bargaining chip for Hillary to use against him, he'd be foolish to go along.

[Blarch]

13. I believe...

Obama will win in one of the largest land slides in recent history, Mccain's legacy will be the loser of such a land slide ..he will blame Bush.

[my3boyz]

17. Obama or Hillary would never carry Florida

in the general election. First of all it is FULL of old people! They probably see themselIt is a state full of Republicans! McCain has the endorsement of their popular governor! A democrat will not win Florida. As for Michigan I think Obama has a good shot there.

[baldguy]

18. Its not Obamas fault that MI and FL decided to disregard the ruled they agreed to.

The fact that Hillary is casting it that way Is whats causing the problem.

[NC_Nurse]

21. Most people aren't paying as much attention as DU.

Lots of people don't give a shit about the primaries. I think he has as much chance if not more than Clinton.

The reality is that FL may go for McCain anyway and that MI will probably go Dem either way. People who think that
DU is in any way a reflection of the general public are kidding themselves.

[stellanoir]

22. Why would voters blame either candidate for the manipulations and errors

of state party officials and their lack of compliance with the rules?

[mckeown1128]

26. Obama already has said he will push to get FL and MI seated. n/t

[LisaL]

28. When exactly did that happy event took place?

Link.

[mckeown1128]

47. Here you go:

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/03/20/politics/uwire/main3955892.shtml

Obama's Campaign: Sen. Obama said he wants to "make sure we have the Michigan and Florida delegates at the convention in some fashion." Obama's campaign is concerned a new election would cause legal and logistical problems.

[golddigger]

29. Huh, what? When did he say this? Link?

[mckeown1128]

48. Here you go too:

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/03/20/politics/uwire/main3955892.shtml

Obama's Campaign: Sen. Obama said he wants to "make sure we have the Michigan and Florida delegates at the convention in some fashion." Obama's campaign is concerned a new election would cause legal and logistical problems.

[barb162]

31. Really? Obama has been TOTALLY silent on their disenfranchisement

and to Clinton's open calls to Obama to push their being seated at the convention.

[Buzz Clik]

42. Silent? No, you simply aren't listening.

Obama was calling for a revote when Hillary was still insisting that the votes in those states were fair.

Obama declared flatly that he would have no objection to caucuses in both states. Hillary rejected them flatly.

Obama says he will accept whatever the national committee decides.

The "disenfranchisement" of the voters in Florida and Michigan was a direct result of the actions of the politicians in Florida and Michigan. Solving the mess THEY created will take time; the blame for the mess resides in Michigan and Florida and nowhere else.

[barb162]

44. A revote won't happen; does he wants the 2 states seated as they already voted?

[Buzz Clik]

46. Rhetorical, meaningless question. The National Party won't allow that.

[Iceburg]

45. Liaholic. Desperately trying to cover up the unpalatable truth are we?/nt

Obama has been working actively to make sure the FL/MI votes don't count.

He is finished -- he can NOT win ANY RED states, he is being crushed in the swing states -- he is no longer competetive. The best he can hope for now is to get out of the race with some dignity attached.

[mckeown1128]

49. They would have to have accurate votes to have them counted.

You say Obama "can NOT win ANY RED states"... but you obviously are talking out of your ass. SUSA polling (that the Clinton campaign has been using as their only talking point for Clinton's electability) shows Obama winning North Dakota, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, Iowa, Colorado, Virginia.... all of which show Hillary losing. Also he wins in Washington and Oregon... both states show Hillary losing... so don't make shit up ok?!

[earthlover]

30. Won't make a bit of difference in November

People will have forgotten all about this by the time September rolls around. There will be other more pressing issues. This faux crisis is mostly from Hillary supporters who rightly see this as hurting their chances of getting the nomination. But even here it is unlikely to make a difference, and arguably silly since Obama was not even on the ballot in MI.

Florida is going to vote McCain no matter what. Get used to it. Obama can win without Florida. Hillary not so much.

Michigan is going blue again with either Hillary or Obama.

I do hope there is a successful resolution of this issue, but on the other hand it is the fault of nobody but these states that they broke the rules. Obama and Hillary both agreed to abide by them too. Before one of them flip flopped on the rules.

[Bensthename]

33. I can't imagine Florida or Michigan dems sitting home over this to let McBush win.. Unimaginable..

[easy_b94]

35. When Obama winsThe Nomination

[cooolandrew]

37. The same can be applied in reversse this is why we need unity now.

[Orangepeel]

39. Add me to the list of people who say either candidate will win MI and neither will win FL

regardless of what happens with the delegates.