Only Four Weeks Left For Hillary Clinton?

KansasVoter

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Sun Mar-23-08 03:37 PM
Original message

Only Four Weeks Left For Hillary Clinton?

Edited on Sun Mar-23-08 03:43 PM by KansasVoter

On April 22nd is the Pennsylvania primary with 158 delegates up for grabs. There are 10 states left including Pennsylvania. The current polls on Real Clear Politics shows Clinton with about a 17 point average lead in Pennsylvania. That is a huge number, bigger than any but a couple of her wins in the past.

The best poll for Clinton shows her with a 26 point lead in Pennsylvania, 63%-37%. Let’s assume that poll is correct even though it is almost impossible to win by that amount. That 26 point win in Pennsylvania is still not enough to overtake Obama. Actually, a 26 point win in ALL of the remaining 10 states would still put Clinton behind by 10 delegates going into Denver. Not counting the super delegates.

Now, if Clinton really wins the 10 remaining states by 26 points I would grant you that the super delegates have a right to with Hillary. Those wins in the remaining 10 states would mean that Clinton has the momentum. It would be very hard to go with Obama with 10 26% losses in a row.

But remember, Obama won 12 contests in a row by huge margins. The lowest was by 17%. So unless Hillary wins the 10 remaining states by over 20 points there is no way the super delegates can justify voting for her. And if they do you will see a huge set of motivated Obama voters lose faith, along with their $30-50 Million dollars a month that they have donated to Obama.

And Hillary was ahead in Ohio by 20 points two weeks before the election. She won by 9 points. She was up by 17 points in Texas two weeks before the election. She won by less than 5 percent and actually gained fewer delegates because of the Texas split primary. And we NOW have 4 weeks until Pennsylvania.

So the main question is what number does Hillary need to win with in Pennsylvania that will convince her that she is done? If she wins Pennsylvania by ONLY %60-%40 then the remaining states need to be won by 65%-35%....almost impossible. If she only wins Pennsylvania by 15 points she needs the rest of the states %66-%34.And if she wins Pennsylvania by only 10 points, her BIG win number in Ohio, she needs to win the remaining states by %67-33%, a 34 point win in each state…......impossible.

And none of these calculations give Obama any wins. He should win North Carolina and other states. If he does, her remaining state numbers needed become comical.

So will Clinton quit if she only wins Pennsylvania by 10 points? I doubt it. I think her strategy is to wait and hope for another Obama scandal. She knows she cannot win by numbers alone and her only hope is that Obama screws up really bad or that Obama has some hidden secret that will come out. If the pastor issue did not derail him then I cannot see anything else doing it.

The other option is after Pennsylvania, if she did not win by more than 10 points, is that the super delegates get behind Obama and give him the needed 2025 delegates. Or at least talk to Clinton and ask her to bow out on her own before they abandon her.

One question I would love to ask Hillary is this “Would you rather win the nomination and lose the general election or have Obama win the nomination and win the general election”. I am afraid Hillary would pick option one. I know Obama would rather lose the nomination and let Hillary win the general election. That is the main issue I have with Hillary, that her Ego means more than the party. We will see after Pennsylvania.