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A couple of days following Barack Obama's highly publicized speech relating to racial issues in America, the Democratic candidate gave a much less heralded speech outlining his foreign policy ideas. Very little public discussion of the content of the speech has occurred, reflecting the public's general disinterest in substantive policy issues and its preference for the kind of titillation afforded by accusations, scandals, racial and gender conflicts, and gaffes that spice up the campaign season. This is unfortunate because Obama's Iraq speech sets out in relatively sharp relief the likely contours of what his foreign policies would be. It should be, but has not been, a matter of deep concern for American liberals. What the document reveals is a fundamental continuation of the neoconservative agenda, though with up-dated and refined strategic elements.
The essence of the neoconservative agenda, implemented by the Bush administration, was an expansion of American influence and hegemony throughout the world and, in particular, into the strategically important and oil-rich Middle East, by military and political means. By all appearances, the basic argument of the neoconservatives has apparently carried the day. Now, in 2008, the foreign policy agenda of the supposedly most liberal of the remaining presidential candidates is built around the premise of further expansion of America influence and control. Their proposal only promises to impose American influence more fully and effectively than the Bush administration was able to do. It is a continuation of the same aggressive posture that has resulted in America being viewed by many people around the world as one of the two nations that pose the greatest threat to world peace.
The agenda proposed by the Obama team has gone largely unchallenged, though not due to any disguise on their part. They have been genuinely forthcoming about their foreign policy perspective. The fault lies with the American public and, especially, the part of the liberal community that has failed to engage with the substance of Obama's proposed policies. Perhaps the liberals constituency has been lulled into complacency by the comforting idea that Barack Obama represents the anti-war viewpoint, but is it really so?
At first glance, the answer seems to be "yes." Obama was the only one of the three remaining presidential candidates to oppose the invasion of Iraq. As an Illinois State Senator at the time, he gave a speech at an anti-war rally in 2002, opposing war in Iraq. In his Iraq policy statement, Obama states emphatically, early on, "When I am Commander-in-Chief, I will set a new goal on Day One: I will end this war." Then, he adds, "It is the right thing to do for our national security, and it will ultimately make us safer." So far so good, from a liberal perspective!
But, is it really so? Obama's plan calls for removing 1-2 combat brigades each month, which will lead to the removal of "all of them" within sixteen months. He then adds, "We will leave enough troops in Iraq to guard our embassy and diplomats, and a counter-terrorism force to strike al Qaeda if it forms a base that the Iraqis cannot destroy." Considering that the current relative stability in Iraq (in comparison to last summer) required a "surge" in troops to be accomplished, how is it that a small contingent of embassy guards and a counter-terrorism force will be able to maintain stability in the future?
The Obama team's argument is that the withdrawal of American forces will "put pressure on Iraq's leaders to take responsibility for their future." "We will help Iraq reach a meaningful accord on national reconciliation." Is that really going to happen? Earlier in the document, Obama refers to the well-publicized report on the status of Iraq provided to Congress last year by General Petraeus. Obama states, "The Iraqis are not achieving the political progress needed to end their civil war." The differences between the Shiites, Sunnis, and Kurds are fundamental and intractable. All three groups would rather fight than reconcile. Shiites, who are in the majority and who control the southeastern portion of Iraq where the majority of the richest oil fields are found, have no interest in sharing oil revenues with their long-time, mortal enemies, the Sunnis. The Sunnis have no interest in being an impoverished minority within a Shiite-dominated nation, and the highest aspiration of the Kurds is independence (which Turkey will oppose tooth-and-nail). The idea that impending withdrawal of American troops is going to stimulate "reconciliation" is naïve or disingenuous. Withdrawal of American forces will serve to intensify preparations among the three main ethnic groups in Iraq for an inevitable civil war.
Americans need to understand that Obama's plan with respect to Iraq neither disengages us entirely nor continues a level of commitment that can maintain stability. It amounts to an effort to maintain our involvement and influence in Iraq on-the-cheap, so that the resources currently being expended to maintain our presence in Iraq can be redeployed into a combination of new military initiatives and domestic investments. Obama acknowledges that "we will have to make tactical adjustments, listening to our commanders on the ground, to ensure that our interests in a stable Iraq are met," so if violence erupts, as it inevitably will, we will have to reinsert the requisite forces. The phrase "commanders on the ground" (in Iraq) baldly contradicts the earlier assertion that he will "end this war," beginning on Day One. The cost savings in relation to cutting back on troop commitments in Iraq will therefore only be as great as circumstances allow. If and when civil war erupts, as seems likely, or al Qaeda reasserts itself, we will have to build up the forces once again because the commitment to managing the stability of Iraq has remained in force, just as the neoconservatives intended. The Obama plan is predicated on a "national reconciliation" in Iraq that is just not going to happen.
Meanwhile, the Obama team's plan calls for stepping up the commitment in Afghanistan and in the mountainous region along the border of Afghanistan and Pakistan from which the leadership of al Qaeda is thought to operate. The plan calls for two additional brigades in Afghanistan, which would come from redeployment of a relatively small percentage of the troops withdrawn from Iraq. These two brigades would supposedly provide for "training Afghan security forces, more joint NATO operations with the Afghan Army, and a national police training plan." These same two brigades, or perhaps other unspecified forces, would also create a new "central front" in the war against terror along the border of Afghanistan and Pakistan. These are troubling words. A "front" usually implies a large, standing military force at the forefront of a war zone. One hopes that the Obama team actually meant something else entirely, perhaps a new "theater of operations," but it's hard to know for certain.
Obama also proposes to increase non-military assistance to Afghanistan, in part to "counter the opium trade by supporting alternative livelihoods for Afghan farmers." We have already failed once at implementing such a policy, in Colombia, in South America. What alternative crop does he propose that will provide farmers with the kind of income they can derive from their fields of poppies. The war lords who run the opium industry in Afghanistan and who are nominally allied with the NATO forces against the Taliban certainly aren't going to cooperate in such efforts. The fact is that we are allied with the devil in Afghanistan fighting against another devil. Obama's plan, far from ending the war in the Middle East, expands those commitments from Iraq, through Afghanistan, to Pakistan and Iran. So, once again, the neoconservative approach to world affairs has carried the day. The Democratic alternative is merely an alternative set of tactics. Obama proposes increasing the size of America's military by 65,000 soldiers and 27,000 marines. Common sense should alert the public to the obvious likelihood that an increase in the size of America's military forces indicates an expectation that their deployment will be increasing as well.
Speaking of tactics, there is much to be commended in Obama's foreign policy plan in that respect. On paper, at least, they are committed to supplementing their military initiatives with intensified use of targeted foreign aide, vigorous diplomacy, rebuilding and modernizing America's security agencies, and recommitting to such core American values as the rule of law, respect for habeas corpus, and respect for civil liberties. These are all welcome strategic initiatives from a liberal perspective. Yet, the intention to increase diplomatic engagement is meaningless if not accompanied by a demonstration of understanding of the legitimate aspirations of those with grievances against America. In that respect, the foreign policy proposals of the Obama team are seriously deficient and unpromising.
I urge every person of liberal persuasion to read for themselves Obama's foreign policy speech. Then, try reading it again as though you were a leader in Iran, China, North Korea, Palestine, Syria, Egypt, Lebanon, or, even, a leader or citizen living in one of our allied European nations. It's an exercise in understanding how both foes and friends will react. Ask yourself whether a reading of this document would increases or decrease your fear of America's aggressive efforts to dominate the world stage. Ask yourself whether a reading of this document would increase your willingness to enter into diplomatic discussions with America.
Instead of an olive branch, Chinese leaders will see provocative language about "the human rights and religious freedom of the people of Tibet" as well as American fears in relation to economic competition with China. Iranian leaders will find an aggressive posture of ever tightening sanctions and isolation, which America then hopes to trade for Iran's abandonment of their nuclear program. Would you give in to that kind of pressure considering that America's talk about need for nuclear non-proliferation and securing loose nuclear material around the world is not accompanied by any willingness on the part of America and the other current nuclear nations to scale back their own nuclear arsenals? It is quite natural for countries like North Korea and Iran to view this nuclear imbalance as one component of America's effort to dominate world affairs.
In the race speech given the same week, Obama stated that the problems in the Middle East were not rooted "primarily in the actions of stalwart allies like Israel" and, instead, "emanating from the perverse and hateful ideologies of radical Islam." How does this kind of one-sided view of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict invite diplomatic engagement? Then, in the foreign policy speech, Obama again chooses language (presumably aimed at gaining support from Jewish voters in America) bound to alienate even moderate Islamic people when he says, "Instead of the new Middle East we were promised, Hamas runs Gaza, Hizbollah flags fly from the rooftops in Sadr City, and Iran is handing out money left and right in southern Lebanon." Why has he lumped together Hamas and Hizbollah as though they were equivalent in their opposition to negotiation with Israel? When were Americans ever promised a Middle East in which Palestinian flags fly nowhere? Is that what Obama is promising? Why wouldn't moderate Muslims interpret this kind of language as a declaration of renewed determination in America to suppress their legitimate aspirations? Later in the document, Obama derides "politics based on fear and division" but what are his foreign policies if not a renewal of the neoconservative intent to isolate and repress, by all means possible, all those nations and peoples with interests that conflict with those of the United States?
In another paragraph near the end of the document, Obama decries the current administration's policy of "unending war and unilateral action." Certainly, these are words comforting to the ears of liberals. But is what Obama intends really so different? His vision calls not only for a continuation of commitment in Iraq, though on-the-cheap, which may or may not prove possible, together with a deepening of our commitments in Afghanistan and a widening of our commitments to the border region of Pakistan. With respect to Iran, he offers only one piece of assurance for liberals, as compared to the present administration's bombing threat. Obama promises that he'll engage in diplomacy before going to war with Iran. Otherwise, his position parallels that of the Bush administration.
On the issue of unilateral action, the words at the end of the document are twice refuted by earlier remarks. Part of his justification for increasing our troop commitment in Afghanistan by two brigades is "to leverage greater assistance – with fewer restrictions – from our NATO allies." The phrase "fewer restrictions" implies the ability to engage in unilateral military initiatives. Then, elsewhere, Obama holds out the possibility of anti-terrorist military actions in Pakistan, with or without the concurrence of the leader of that sovereign nation and ally.
What is perhaps most alarming about the foreign policy document emanating from the Obama team is that it supposedly represents the liberal perspective in America. When the dominant views emanating from both ends of the political spectrum in America are spun from the same silk – the neoconservative goal of further extending American control and hegemony over world affairs – there will remain no organized voice of opposition in America to call into question the fundamental assumptions of neoconservatism or to reign in the most blatant excesses of its implementation. A country without a genuinely liberal opposition, an opposition that places the well-being of humanity above the desire of a nation to extent its power and influence over other peoples, is a dangerous nation indeed.
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