Is it now impossible for Hillary to win?

[johan helge]

Dick Morris says (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/03/wrights_rantings_wont_sink_oba.html):

"Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) has already won the Democratic nomination. It's over. Regardless of how the remaining primaries and caucuses go, including Michigan and even Florida, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) can never catch Obama in elected delegates. His current lead of 170 pledged delegates will not be overcome no matter what happens. Even if Clinton beats him by 10 points in each of these primaries, he will still lead among elected delegates by over 100. The superdelegates will not override the will of the voters unless Obama is in jail. They will not let themselves in for a civil war by overruling a black man who is beloved by the young by going over the heads of the electorate and naming the candidate that lost the primaries as the nominee."

As a Hillary supporter, I hope he is wrong - but is he?

[grantcart]

1. yes

1) Obama will enter the convention with the most pledged delegates

- given how delegates are distributed - mostly by district with proportional distribution it is impossible for Hillary to catch up EVEN IF SHE WINS BY 65%

2) Many critical superdelegates have indicated that they will vote on the candidate who has the most pledged delegates -Speaker Pelosi is one.


3) Given even the most optimistic results in the upcoming primaries Sen Obama will get 50% of the pledged delegates by Oregon

- He currently needs about 211 pledged delegates to reach that point


Thank you for an honest question

[LVjinx]

30. Not unless he reaches 2024, it ain't

[okasha]

2. Short answer:

He's wrong.

[ThatBozGuy]

10. Can you please show why?

Just asking about your opinion.

[okasha]

14. Several primaries yet to go,

several of which Hillary's favored to win; SD's still to commit--and neither candidate can win without them at this point; several weeks for Obama to continue to damage himself.

[ThatBozGuy]

23. The primaries that are left are a wash in changing the delgate lead by more than 30

Do you realize that after PA Mr Obama would need less than 100 super delegates out of 317 to make the 2024 even if she takes PA by 80 percent and if she takes PA by 80 percent she would still need to gain over 213 out of 317 to get her to 2024.

She would almost need all. Do you believe that Superdelgate Leadership like Jimmy Carter and Nancy Peolosi will vote in favor for her and that those people only represent themselves or a larger group of superdelegates?

Is it safe to say, that the only way Ms Clinton can win is as you say is if Mr Obama suddenly lost on his own, not because of her strengths? Is that winning?

So your hope in Ms Clinton is actually a hope in Mr Obama?

[Onlooker]

28. Her odds are slim, but ...

... if she finishes very strong, she could win. Certainly, if she performs like Obama did in his string of wins, she really will be in the race even without FL and MI. But I would say her odds are slim because the Obama campaign doesn't make many mistakes, and Obama is as good a candidate (in terms of marketing) as she is.

[Sulawesi]

3. This has been true since Hillary "won" TX by such a narrow margin.

[leftofcool]

4. He is wrong

Pledged delegates can change their minds and have in the past. Super delegates can choose who ever they want and even over ride the people. That is why they are there.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

13. But they won't.

Not a chance in Hell.

[azmouse]

5. yes

[tekisui]

6. He's right. Her only chance at winning is a complete implosion of Obama's

campaign. I've seen nothing that lead me to believe they would allow that to happen.

[Tribetime]

7. yes

[Demeter]

8. It Was Always Impossible

Theft is not winning, and theft was the game plan.

[mopinko]

9. in what universe?

in the real world, no. in hillaryworld, anything is possible.

[BeatleBoot]

11. Patience.

It's a virtue, as they say.

All will be revealed.

[earthlover]

21. All will be revealed...celestial choirs will sing from the clouds, Hillary will rise again in 3 days

[BeatleBoot]

22. Patience.

[ChimpersMcSmirkers]

27. Let me guess, Obama is in fact a Sith Lord?

[Kesaco]

12. Dick Morris ??

LOL.....Whatever happened to Condi Rice?

[pnwmom]

15. The truth is

we don't know what will happen between now and the election and we don't know how the superdelegates will ultimately decide to vote.

[Botany]

16. Superdelegates are going to Obama @ 65 vs 5 from Feb 5

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/22/us/politics/22richard ...

<Mr. Richardson is the 62nd superdelegate to endorse Mr. Obama since Feb. 5, compared with fewer than five who have moved into Mrs. Clinton’s column since then.

The move by Mr. Richardson could give license to other superdelegates who had been holding back, at the request of the Clintons. His endorsement could prove particularly potent with this group because of the way he chastised Mrs. Clinton for the tone of the campaign, and his call for the party to unify around one candidate.>

***********************
I expect many more will switch sides or commit to Hillary before PA too.

[saltpoint]

17. Her campaign has left an extraordinarily bad taste in a lot of Democratic

county organizers' mouths. They've had about enough of her and are eager to congeal their efforts in city, county, and state races.

It's easier to do that with a united front, and those of my acquaintenance strongly favor Obama.

Many favor any of our original other 7 candidates, with Hillary Clinton placing dead last for many of these folks.

[GumboYaYa]

18. Yes.

She is just throwing good money after bad right now. It is a colossal waste of an opportunity for the Democrats. Hillary and Bill are bad for the party. They need to go away and never be heard from again.

[WorseBeforeBetter]

19. I tuned out at Dick Morris the Toe Sucker... (n/t)

[MH1]

20. Yes, it's impossible for her to win, but not because Dick Morris says so.

There are plenty of others saying it though.

[LisaL]

24. Never say never. He said... Hillary not gonna

win unless Obama is in jail.
:rofl:

[Rageneau]

25. Fact is, right now, NEITHER can win.

True, Hillary can't 'catch" Obama, but also true, Obama is not likely to reach 2025, which is what the RULES say the winner must have.

If neither gets to 2025, I don't know what the RULES call for. Maybe they'll flip a coin.

But HRC certainly shouldn't quit, because truth is, she would be far ahead -- in delegates, popular votes and SDs -- were it not for the shennigans in Florida and Michigan, which she had nothing to do with. Also (unlike Obama)Hillary would enfranchise these disenfranchised Democratic voters if she could.

[Snarkoleptic]

26. It's over...

Click the link, page down, adjust the remaining primary results (move the arrows L or R).
She must exit the race before doing additional damage to our chances in November.
http://www.slate.com/id/2185278/

[emilyg]

29. Yes.

Dick Morris? Never right.