Seven months before Election Day, rising home foreclosures, shrinking financial assets and gasoline approaching a record $4 a gallon are daily reminders that the U.S. economy may be the worst in almost 30 years.
Even if a recovery begins this summer, Americans won't feel the difference until much later. That's why when the polls open Nov. 4, the Republicans, who have controlled the White House since 2001 and Congress for much of that time, will have ceded a key advantage to the Democrats.
Recessions shaped four presidential elections in the past half-century -- in 1960, 1976, 1980 and 1992. More than history will be on the side of Democrats Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama in the campaign against John McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee. The economy issue ``is not something I've understood as well as I should,'' McCain, 71, told reporters in New Hampshire in December.
``If I'm the Democratic National Committee, I'm taking that sound bite and using it over and over,'' says Daniel Clifton, head of policy research at Strategas Research Partners, an investment-strategy group in Washington. ``People will wonder, `How can we elect this guy at this time of economic uncertainty?'''
Most Americans believe the U.S. is already in a recession, according to a Feb. 21-25 Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times poll. Half said the economy will still be in bad shape in six months, and 27 percent said it will be worse. Consumer confidence this month dropped to a 16-year low, according to a Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index.
``This whole `change' message is working because whatever is happening out there now is not working,'' Clifton says.
McCain's economic program largely consists of embracing President George W. Bush's tax cuts, proposing a reduction in the corporate rate and eliminating congressional earmarks.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/bloomberg/20080324/pl_bloomberg/af3ipl3rv9dy;_ylt=AgBqvQoepP41WLuqu5aoeo9Wr7sFFor all you running around henny penny, saying the sky is falling, remember this: It's the economy, stupid.
We are in an intramural spat between two candidates who agree on the issues, making it a personality contest. But when it comes down to kitchen table matters in November, people are going to be looking to the guy who wants to change the Bush economy and provide affordable health care for anyone who wants it - not the crusty, old status quo.
As I've said before, Obama is crushing McCain in fundraising, voter turnout and enthusiasm. Like 2004, this will be an election based on turnout. And that is why we are FIRED UP and READY TO GO!!!