Hillary up by 28 Points in W. VA.

[notundecided]

Rasmussin Poll:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/west_virginia/west_virginia_democratic_presidential_primary

[Vinca]

1. I don't think Obama has stepped foot in the state yet.

The MO, as you know, is she's up, he campaigns, she drops.

[DeaconBlues]

4. actually Obama was just in Beckley

I'm not sure if he was in the state before

[davidinalameda]

5. he was in Charleston as well

[Texas Hill Country]

24. yeah, there is no way he is gonna take WV.... and he has been there

[QC]

31. True. But when he hits them with his preachertalk

the power of the Lord will overcome them and they will get in line and he will win 100% of the vote, plus all the Republicans!

[mmonk]

74. His preacher talk is not the kind they are used to hearing.

[BigDDem]

76. Think again.

[flor de jasmim]

2. Not worth posting unless they tell you about their sampling methods

[Texas Hill Country]

25. it's rassmussen, are you serious? it is one of the most respected polling companies out there....

[Hepburn]

34. Since when?

:rofl:

[PoliticalAmazon]

53. Why you can't trust the polls

The polls have a lot of influence on the outcome of an election because humans are, in many things, herd animals, and especially the mushy middle of the political spectrum puts a lot of value in how the majority of other voters are voting (the belief being that if that many people have that opinion, the opinion must be valid).

Political candidates and organizations spend a good deal of money funding polls, which they use in their campaigns to influence voters.

I compiled some analyses of polls during the 2002 and 2004 elections cycles, and came to the conclusion that the vast majority of polls to which we are exposed cannot be validated based on the way they were conducted and who controls the questions asked and what material is published, and when. Some polls, just by the information given in the spin pieces written about them, can be seen to be flawed without even having to trying to get information from the polling organization.

(http://www.ncpp.org/?q=node/4) “20 Questions a Journalist Should Ask About Polls” (National Council on Public Polls website) is a good explanation of some of the issue about polls.

There are other issues I didn't see mentioned in this article, and they are important to know when reading about polling results.

*Polling phone calls made in the evening and weekends are more likely to reach conservatives.
*Polling questions asked to those "likely to vote" (voted in the last election) are more likely (by up to 7%) to return a conservative bias. So there is a difference in outcome if you ask questions of "those likely to vote" and "registered voters," and if the former group ("likely to vote") is asked it favors the conservative candidate or opinion.

Here's an example of how the second issue becomes important, especially in a highly partisan political election, where Republican voters woud be highly likely to vote for Republican candidates and Democratic Party voters would be highly likely to vote for Democratic Party candidates.

In the 2004 election, before the primary was held, when Dean was at his strongest, CNN published an article about a poll that they funded (from what I could find out--and polling groups do NOT want to give you enough information so that you cann assess the poll for validity--if they say "CNN/Zogby Poll" it usually means CNN paid for it, and it may mean that they had control over what questions were asked, how they were asked, when the calls were made, how the data was manipulated for results, and which of the polling results were allowed to be published).

The premise of the CNN poll was "If you were to vote now, and your choice was between GWBush against one of the Democratic candidates, who would you vote for?" Then they would ask the question of Bush v. each of the Democratic candidates.

For all of the candidates except Dean--and they listed the non-Dean candidates first in the article--the polling was done of "registered voters." In all of the non-Dean candidates, GWBush won by a good margin.

The last Dem candidate they listed was Dean, and for his hypothetical run against GWBush, the pollers asked the question of "those likely to vote." Right away, there is up to an 8% more conservative outcome. Even with that, Dean was less than 1 or 2 points behind GWBush, and the poll had a margin of error of 3 to 4 points.

Yet the article was entitled, "If Election Held Now, Bush Would Win."

It gets better. The number of people polled was between 1300 and 1400, which is a good sampling, PROVIDED THE POLL IS CONDUCTED LEGITIMATELY. Out of those polled, around 380 were U.S. veterans. Out those veterans, a majority said they would vote for Bush. But this is the problem: 380 is far to small of a sample to predict the outcome of a national election. Also, people who identify themselves as veterans are more likely to be conservative.

Also, out of the 1300 to 1400 people, less than one-third were Democrats. I am sure the poll was weighted (but there are problems with weighting), but the fact that there were so many more Republicans makes me think that the polling calls were made at a time when it was more likely that conservatives would be reached.

So the questions asked of veterans were from a small group of respondents, and out of those (since only a third of the entire poll was Democrat, and since self-identified veterans are more likely to be conervative), the number of Democrats in this small sample of veterans was probably very, very small.

Yet the subtitle, right after, "If Election Held Now, Bush Would Win," was this: "Veterans Vote for Bush by Large Margin."

I spent a great deal of time trying to get information from these polling groups. Zogby got downright pissy when I would not give up in trying to find out specifics, such as when the calls were made, and, more importantly, questions about how much influence the person or group funding the poll had on the questions asked, how they were worded, when they were asked, and what results were published, as well as how the data was manipulated.

Anyway, be wary of the polls, and if your gut feeling tells you that the polling results are flawed, I would suggest you go with your gut feelings because, IMO, there is a very good chance that many polling results ARE flawed.

[elizm]

3. Even winning WV w/ 55% of vote, she can't catch up in delegates...

So what's the point?

[aquarius dawning]

15. do you really even need to ask?

[CreekDog]

62. she doesn't need to win to win

i thought you knew that by now.

[Raffi Ella]

6. YAY

Thanks for posting,that's great news.WELCOME to D.U. :thumbsup:

[InsultComicDog]

7. So I guess that makes WV one of the states that matters

all those states that Hillary lost don't count. Hillary campaign folks said so.

[last_texas_dem]

36. Yeah, but I'm sure they'd also classify it as a "red" state

and one the Democrats aren't likely to win in the general. So, if the Clinton campaign people are being consistent in terms of how they classified all those "red" states Obama has won, WV shouldn't matter.

[MyNameGoesHere]

44. BULLSHIT! WV has almost always went

Democrat until Gore said he wanted to ban strip mining. Same thing Obama has said. I agree with the idea but you can't say shit like that and expect to win.

[last_texas_dem]

70. Yes, WV is a traditionally Democratic state

However, I think a "red" trend has definitely taken a hold of the state over the last decade or so, and I think it would now be an uphill battle for a Democrat to win the state on the Presidential level. When you consider that Dukakis won WV while only winning a handful of other states (around ten total, I believe) but both Gore and Kerry lost WV- and Kerry by a sizeable margin- I think it's revealing. WV voters seem to now be voting more on social issues than economic issues, so McCain's admitted cluelessness on economic issues won't hurt him as much as his typically right-wing stances on social issues will help him.

[MyNameGoesHere]

72. I don't know about voting on social issue.

but the voters will ALWAYS vote against any public policy about mining. When a person campaigns in WV they should treat mining like the third rail. Wait the frigg until they are elected then incorporate those mining regulations. Gore, and Kerry both effed it up with bone head statements like that.

[PoliticalAmazon]

55. That depends...in HillaryWorld a state is only important if she wins it. n/t

[gabeana]

8. That poll is almost a week old

I'm looking forward to seeing the poll after he has been campaigning in the state

[Hope And Change]

12. I agree and ....

18% are still undecided according to the poll.

[kentuck]

9. W. VA and KY are in a depression in many areas of their states...

They remember the Clinton years of the 1990's and are begging to get back to those good ol' days. Hillary could actually win those states by those margins.

[Upton]

10. No surprise, WV ranks 51st in college education rates

[olkaz]

22. That's a low blow

It's still a state, and deserves our respect.

I mean, it's Republican leadership that has produced those god-awful numbers. We can fix it. Insulting them isn't going to start that process.

[GihrenZabi]

26. But it's true

Note that Hillary's support is coming mostly from older voters and working-class whites.

In my experience, neither group is the most politically-astute I've ever encountered.

Obama is leading among the educated and the well-to-do for a reason...they tend to be more than a little better informed about politics, social issues, the world stage, etc.

Cosmopolitanism is about being in tune with the world around you. Hillary represents the old school, which is why she can't beat McCain - the old school is going to prefer McCain, while the new school has no tolerance for Hillary's lack of imagination and playing by all the old rules.

[yardwork]

27. Of course WV deserves respect, but the post was correct.

WV ranks last in educational attainment. The state is mountainous, isolated, and deeply impoverished. It is 95% or more white. Fewer than a quarter of the people have college degrees, and most of those are concentrated in the small cities like Charleston. Many of the people living in the mountains and valleys don't have high school diplomas. They work as miners in conditions that most 20th century, much less 21st century, Americans would not believe.

WV has been heavily influenced in recent years by the extreme Christian Right. They voted against Kerry in droves because of well-financed smears stating that Kerry would "ban Bibles." Many people in WV believed that it was possible for the president to "ban Bibles" and they believed, as they were told, that Kerry was an atheist who would do it.

Of the ~30% who still support the shrub, a disproportionate number probably live in WV. A disproportionate number of West Virginians probably believe - because they've been told - that Saddam Hussein was responsible for 9/11 and the war in Iraq is a huge success. Except that a disproportionate number of their sons and daughters are coming home in body bags.

This is what we're up against in WV and some other states. Decades of economic and social oppression have created a voting public who are not only uninformed, they are badly misinformed about what their federal government is doing.

[olkaz]

30. The post was correct, but

I mean, come on, the tone wasn't exactly congenial.

People from WV are dumb, therefore they support Hillary.

Anyway, I think our party could create huge new constituencies at a bargain price by actively trying to improve conditions in impoverished states like West Virginia. I mean, even a meager federal investment in a jobs program along with some infrastructure work could create great new opportunities there.

I realize that help is needed everywhere. I'm not blind. But it seems like the risk/reward ratio is very beneficial in places this sad.

It's time to kill the "free" trade agreements and get states like West Virginia some nice incentives for manufacturing sector development. God, I would love to see it.

[GihrenZabi]

32. There's a difference...

...between stupidity and ignorance.

One is an insult, the other is a matter of fact.

Ignorance can be corrected. Stupidity cannot.

I think most people conflate these two words in their daily lives...I find many more people to be "ignorant" than "stupid." They just need to be educated, exposed to ideas and/or facts they've never been exposed to before, and they change their minds.

[riskpeace]

54. Which one are you?

This arrogance is one of the reasons the Democratic party cannot compete south or west of Richmond, VA anymore. Good luck with your intellectual superiority.

[yardwork]

37. I think it would require a little more than jobs programs.

What happened to West Virginia is symptomatic of what is happening to the entire country, and much of the world. The corporatists are taking over, and human life isn't worth much anymore.

Neither of our Democratic candidates are radical enough in their approaches, imo. At least Edwards talked about poverty and the need for universal healthcare.

It's more than NAFTA. It's more than the war in Iraq. Our entire infrastructure is based on short-term profits for stakeholders and everything else be damned.

[Cha]

67. Doesn't matter...people can see what a

sniperliar she is without gettin' a degree. hilary is built on sand and that sand is drifting away.

[high density]

11. WV sounds like a "BIG STATE" to me!

Yeeeeaaaaaahhhhh. It matters.

18% not sure of a candidate.

"Eighteen percent (18%) of Clinton voters say that they are Not Very Likely to vote for Obama and 35% say they are Not at All Likely to vote for Obama."

Joy.

[thereismore]

13. Gee, let me see, they really benefit from MTR there. nt

[Kesaco]

14. Many Obama supporters just want Hillary to roll over and

play dead. Never mind that the upcoming primaries will tighten the delegate count and significantly tighten the total popular vote. Let's face it folks, this race will be very close at the end and no one should have it in the bag at this point.

[Beacool]

16. I tune them out, they have become sooooo tiresome.

Let them keep clamoring for her to drop out. Meantime, her supporters will continue to work very hard in the remaining states to help her win them.

[high density]

19. Most candidates roll over and play dead when they lose a lot of primary contests

But we know Clinton is something else entirely.

[otohara]

49. I Want Them To Stop Praising McCain

I'm beginning to think they are up to something very cynical.

[PoliticalAmazon]

58. *I* want her to get out of the race because she can't win, not after her sniper lie. GOP would...

pound her into the ground over that one lie alone. Here's McCain, who really HAS suffered sniper fire and worse, and here's Hillary, lying to pimp her resume by claiming she experienced sniper fire. How insulting to McCain and other soldiers who have been under sniper fire! She reduced it to a cheap campaign trick.

THAT's why Hillary needs to get out of the race now. If you think people won't vote for her now, just wait until the GOP gets done with her.

And there's a big difference between now and when she was attacked by the GOP in the Clinton administration...many activists like me will do nothing to defend her. In fact, I will join the GOP in bringing her down.

[Lucky 13]

17. Yeah Hillary will do great in any state where racism has a stronghold.

[aquarius dawning]

18. what evidence do you have of this?

[Upton]

21. WV is 95.99% white

those figures are from 2005. Anyway with stats like that, you know racism is a component.

[aquarius dawning]

38. OMG You just stereotyped all whites as being bigots and thereby made yourself a bigot

if there was an award for being a hypocrite, I'm sure you would win with logic like that.
:applause:

[UALRBSofL]

48. OMG he did aquarius, disgusting

Then he looks at the black vote counting 80 to 90% for Obama, so, he stereotypes them as well. Sad isn't it.

[Lucky 13]

64. You missed the point entirely.

West Virginia does have a problem with racism. Yes, it does have something to do with the fact that the state is vastly predominantly white. Insulation, isolation and ignorance breeds contempt.

Since I'm sure you're not interested in my own anecdotal experiences in W. VA., read these.


RACIST AND/OR SKINHEAD GROUPS
The National Alliance (NA), headquartered in Hillsboro, West Virginia, was for many years the largest and best-organized neo-Nazi group in the U.S. This is one of the groups that inspired Tim McVeigh. They also have a record label that puts out racist skinhead music aimed at youth. In addition, the group publishes Resistance Magazine, which covers the white power music scene and other topics of interest to skinheads.
http://www.adl.org/racist_skinheads/wsgwssm.asp

There are other groups that have a stronghold in West Virginia as well - not as big, but still damn scary.
Link: http://www.adl.org/racist_skinheads/states/west_virginia.asp


RECENT HATE CRIMES
Arthur "J.R." Warren (1974 - July 3, 2000) was a 26-year-old African American gay man, who resided in Grant Town, West Virginia. On July 3, 2000 he was murdered by two teenage white males, in what is believed to have been a hate crime.
Wikipedia pages provides links to other articles: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arthur_Warren

Racist sickos tortured black West Virginia woman for week
http://deesoul.imeem.com/blogs/2007/09/29/bC2H_6hu/racist_sickos_allegedly_tortured_black_west_virginia_woman_for_week
(Reposted article from the NY Daily News)
AND
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ypi5znAUQ98 (MSNBC report on YouTube)

Concerned Women for America: West Virginia Leads Way Out of ‘Hate Crime’ Thicket (Venom from the other side)
http://www.cwfa.org/articles/540/CFI/cfreport/index.htm


RACISM IN EDUCATION & ATHLETICS
The Rodriguez Aftermath / Magee waiting for results of racism probe
http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/08062/861912-144.stm

Allegations of racism: Parents, students sound off
http://www.bdtonline.com/archivesearch/local_story_078215749.html

W. Va. Presidential Appointment: Draws Charges of NEPOTISM, RACISM
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0DXK/is_20_16/ai_58168838

[indimuse]

68. Racism?

Exciuse me? % huh? What % of blacks are votng for Barack I wonder???

[indimuse]

69. WOW! look what I just found.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=103x348127

Obama Regains Big Lead In North Carolina
Poll: Obama Regains Big Lead In North Carolina
Huffington Post | March 25, 2008 02:05 PM


A new poll by Public Policy Polling (pdf) has Obama regaining a sizable lead the dissipated during the worst of the Wright controversy coverage. Obama leads in the poll by 21 points over his rival, 55-34.

Obama leads 80-14% among black voters.

Clinton leads 47-40% among white voters, which is a noticeable tightening; she led 56-30% only a week before.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_0325...

[racaulk]

75. Just like Iowa, right?

[Yurovsky]

20. Ed sez ...

YAAAAAAAAAY!!!!!!

[UALRBSofL]

23. OP that's a wide margin and I don't

believe she had that wide a margin before. I believe it has in part been due to the Wright issue.

[yardwork]

29. Hillary was always going to beat Obama in WV but the state will go Republican in GE.

West Virginia is lost to the Democratic Party for the time being. It is going to take some doing to get it back.

[SoCalDem]

57. And I thought they were getting a bit pissed off about having their mountains blown up

She's not against that procedure.. They will find out more about her coal conections..

[Perky]

28. Just wait until the senior senator makes his endorsement.

[frogcycle]

33. hmmmm - a small state (5 electoral votes) that went for bush in 2004

HEY! HILLARY is penetrating an Obama stronghold!

That's good news and bad news for her:

Good news: she may get their tiny handful of delegates
Bad news: she has to disavow them or shut up about all the ones Obama has from similar areas.

:rofl:

[Hepburn]

35. And which ranks lowest in the level of educational attainment....

...yep, sounds EXACTLY like a demographic group that would go for Hillary!

[TeamJordan23]

39. This is an old poll. nm

[totodeinhere]

40. It doesn't matter how much she wins WV by.

It's over.

[ElsewheresDaughter]

41. PA.........RCP Average 03/10 - 03/24 - Clinton 52.3 Obama 36.3 Clinton +16.0

[Citizen Kang]

42. And Obama leads in NC by 21%

which state has more delegates?

THIS THING IS OVER ON MAY 6!

[ElsewheresDaughter]

46. stop your biased BS....that is a Raleigh city poll ONLY...not statewide

[Citizen Kang]

50. Statewide poll

After a week in which Barack Obama made several appearances in North Carolina and confronted the controversy with his pastor by making a major speech on race, he has expanded his lead in North Carolina to 21 points.

Obama leads Clinton 55-34 in the state. His gains were particularly strong in the Triangle, the media market where his major speech on the war last week in Fayetteville got the greatest amount of attention.

Obama also pulled within a 47-40 margin of Clinton with white voters after trailing Clinton 56-30 last week, an indication that his speech on race in Philadelphia last week may have earned him some points.

“The rule of thumb in this Presidential race is that if you don’t like how things are going, just wait a week and they’ll turn around,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Obama has really improved his standing in North Carolina by visiting the state and openly taking on some of the controversies swirling around his campaign.”


http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/3/25/14359/8573/151/483943


Public Policy Polling STATEWIDE Poll

Read it and weap.

[grantcart]

43. So if Ras is right in WV does that also mean that their new pole in PA is also correct?

[ElsewheresDaughter]

47. PA Poll .....RCP Average 03/10 - 03/24 - 52.3 36.3 Clinton +16.0

[ORDem]

63. In that case the new PA poll is VERY good news, Clinton's lead down to 10 points.

Thus, the trend is Obama's friend. And still several weeks to go...

:dem:

[ElsewheresDaughter]

51. RAS In the Democratic Presidential Nomination, it’s Clinton 46%, Obama 43%.

[underpants]

45. That's because she was a coal miner's daughter

a coal miner under sniper fire I might add

[PoliticalAmazon]

52. BWA-HA-HA! Poll was done on March 13, pre Sniper Lie meltdown

There is no way HRC can win in the GE now. The GOP will annhilate her for her lying about her experience, especially the sniper lie.

[gmudem]

56. Isn't that a small red state?

Pretty much the defintion of a state that doesn't count right?

[Lyric]

59. Not a red state

We have two Democratic Senators, Two Dem Congressmen (out of three total), a Dem governor, and a Dem-majority state legislature. The vast majority of our citizens are registered Democrats. WV went for Bush during the last two Presidential elections due to some sleazy Republican maneuvering (they sent false mailings to poor rural folks telling them that Gore/Kerry wanted to take away their Bibles, guns, etc., and also fearmongering literature with scary pictures of Teh Ebil Terraists!!11). Anyway, because the Repukes managed to eke out wins in the last 2 Presidential elections, everyone suddenly considers us a "red state", which is just asinine. We aren't "red"; we just (apparently) weren't important enough for the DNC to bother spending any real money or time campaigning and advertising to refute the crap that the Repukes sent out.

West Virginia would be easy pickings in the general for any Democrat who actually bothered to show up and make an effort, but since we only have five little electoral votes, we don't matter. There's only so much that the local grassroots can do without adequate support from the DNC.

[pkz]

61. yeah, what oktoberain said

also...there is a very big difference in the demographics of the southern part of the state compared to the northern part.

I will guarantee you this, the southern part says it will vote for Hillary, but if the Huma story ever gets legs that will change on a dime.

[yardwork]

66. That is heartening news! I hope that WV goes back blue where it belongs.

I love West Virginia.

[Independent-Voter]

60. There's that HRC demographic of low-educated, older, white folks again!

Just like clockwork. Obama will pull it tighter, but WV is straight-up made for Veruca.

[better tomorrow]

65. Have you been through WV lately? Not surprising to me.....

too much coal dust in their lungs to breathe any fresh air in Obama.....

[book_worm]

71. Obama up by 21-points in NC

www.rasmussenreports.com

more delegates!

[catgirl]

73. This poll doesn't include independents

The WV primary is open to both dems and indies, so this
poll is useless.