Candidates in long, drawn-out primaries usually lose in the GE.

[redqueen]

Did anyone else catch the guest on Olbermann who said that?

I hope it's not true.

*sigh*

[mudesi]

1. Which is exactly what Hillary wants

As long as Obama loses to McCain, she can run again in 2012.

[PM7nj]

3. Once people catch on to her tricks, she'll have no support.

If she continues with her little kamikaze mission, she'll have no chance of getting close to the nomination in 2012. People are starting to realize how desperate and selfish she is acting. Her comments today are a new low.

[Shae]

6. I hear that a lot about Hillary wanting to run in 2012

It could be that is her plan, but I'm not sure how well that would work for her. If Obama is the nominee, runs against McCain, and loses, the country has to endure 4 more years of Republican rule. Endless war. Tanked economy. If that's the case, Hillary will likely be perceived as a "spoiler. I doubt that she could get support for a serious Presidential bid in 2012.

[PATRICK]

2. That is too complex

to give an automatic. There are some upsides to having a contest. it depends on factions, grace and the ability of the party to come together. Everyone holds their breath until the Convention to see if this "happens". Then the bounce to the sky, then the coming to earth and then the tug of war with the GOP.

The point is to unify and strengthen the party and boost the candidates and not turn off the general public. That isn't so hard to comprehend, but we all have to cooperate, every candidate, every supporter.
The actual pool of election is still rather small and the world changes fast. These general rules are made for gaming and changing. What is inevitable is when inaction and surrender make it so.

[redqueen]

4. I think the guy who said it cited examples.

As in the candidate picked in such a primary has lost x times out of x races where this was the case.

[John Q. Citizen]

5. This ainn't going to the convention, if that's what you are trying to suggest.

[Exilednight]

8. It's not that complex. A party that has their primary drag out beyond.........

February almost always loses the GE. There are very few exceptions to that rule, Reagan in '80 was the last one.

Our only real hope at this point, is that America sees McCain as a four year extension of Bush.

[azmouse]

9. There is no upside to the current fight.

The two sides are hardening in their positions. The longer this goes on the less likely supporters of the losing candidate will vote for the nominee.

This has got to end.

[PATRICK]

17. It does have to

stop being a death match. One person cited a recent exception being Reagan, who despite a fight was up against a declining Carter. The primaries CAN taper off healthily without Hillary actually surrendering, but it is unlikely she can hold onto much before the Convention to sustain any fight or drama(unless she creates drama).

As to net good or harm we always get a mix, negativity always taking an unjust toll. Depending on Hillary to see the light or superdelegates to stage a bloc intervention is going to be more complex, but something should happen to stop this before the damage continues. I just think that believing this is a radical rule of thumb is too dependent on narrow, mixed experiences whose presumptions are not looked at closely enough.

[bicentennial_baby]

7. Chuck Todd....9 out of the last 10 elections

The candidate from the party who had the longer primary and picked their nominee last lost.

Sigh.

[redqueen]

10. Thanks gorgeous.

This is very depressing news.

[bicentennial_baby]

11. I know! Sniffa and I were just discussing 2000, when

Bush had several opponents (many dropped out early) and Gore only had Bradley.

Ugh.

:hug:

[redqueen]

15. Let's hope this ends up being another exception.

:hug:

[cali]

12. it's true

sadly

[rucky]

13. I don't think that was the case with Carter.

IIRC, the last drawn-out primary we really had.

[McCamy Taylor]

14. FDR won the nomination on the 4th ballot. He was a 4 term president.

[lapfog_1]

16. Chuck Todd

the stat is 9 out of the 10 past elections the first party to name a nominee wins.

I don't know if he is counting incumbent runs... if so, then GHW Bush would be the one that lost, most likely (Bill was late to securing the nomination, if memory serves).