Super Delegates forming for endorsement? --Pelosi Number /Pelosi List

[grantcart]

We complain about the leaders not doing anything about ending this mess.

Not so.

By laying out the principle that the pledged delegates are what matters she has moved the goal posts way up:
http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2008/03/pelosis-delegat.html

ABC News' Teddy Davis Reports: House Speaker Nancy Pelosi told ABC News' George Stephanopoulos on Friday that it would be "harmful" to Democrats if superdelegates were to give the party's presidential nomination to a candidate who is trailing in the delegates awarded in primaries and caucuses.

"If the votes of the superdelegates overturn what's happened in the elections," said Pelosi, "it would be harmful to the Democratic Party."

Although Pelosi offered her assessment without directly referencing Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., her comments lend considerable support to the Illinois Democrat.

"But what if one candidate has won the popular vote and the other candidate has won the delegates?" asked Stephanopoulos.



Currently there are 3253 Pledged Delegates

Half of that would be 1627

Obama currently has 1406

He needs . . . . . .221 = Obama's Pelosi Number


And now we find Super Delegates joining her one by one


Pelosi List

Based on Public statements these are the Super Delegates who have given a strong indication that the candidate who reaches 50% of the pledged delegate should be the nominee:

1) Speaker Pelosi

2) Christin Pelosi http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/02/15/christine-pelosi-superde_n_86836.html

3) Roy Rommer http://blogs.usatoday.com/onpolitics/2008/03/former-dnc-chie.html

4) Senator Cantwell (WA)http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5256869

5) Donna Brazile http://i.abcnews.com/Politics/Vote2008/Story?id=4261986&page=1

6) Rick Larsen (WA)http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/superdelegates/index.html

7) Cindy Spanyers AL http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/superdelegates/index.html


By using a democratic principle to establish a reasonable goal Speaker Pelosi has established a line in the ground that other superdelegates can go to without favoring a particular campaign. If one candidate were to reach the 'Pelosi Number' and a large block of Super Delegates were to endorse at one time it would prove a decisive and deciding moment for the nomination.


For another look at this issue: http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/03/superdelegates-pledging-to-back.html

[PM7nj]

1. Here's how he can get those delegates...

In Pennsylvania, if the vote in 44% O - 56% C = 70 delegates for Obama
In Guam, lets say the vote is 40% O - 60% C = 2 delegates
In Indiana, if the vote is 55 O - 45% C = 40 delegates
In N Carolina, if the vote is 55% O - 45% C = 63 delegates
In W Virginia, if the vote is 40% O - 60% C = 11 delegaes
In Kentucky, if the vote is 40% O - 60% C = 20 delegates
In Oregon, if the vote is 60% O - 40% C = 31 delegates
In Puerto Rico, if the vote is 40% O - 60% C = 22 delegates
In Montana, if the vote is 60% O - 40% C = 10 delegates
In South Dakota, if the vote is 60% O - 40% C = 9 delegates

70+2+40+63+11+20+31+22+10+9 = 278 delegates

I think I used some pretty conservative numbers and was very generous to Senator Clinton. He could do much better in PA, IN, and NC, so he could get that magic number much earlier.

[Zhade]

2. I think it'll be quite easy for him to snipe clinton's campaign and get the dels/SDs.

I mean, she's a total fucking liar. That doesn't go away, especially when there's video that proves it.

[grantcart]

3. Thank you for your reply I think that he may get it by Oregon

In addition to your numbers which are 'generous to Clinton' people forget that there adjusments being made to pledged delegates.

In this thread http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5237601&mesg_id=5261711

DUer VOICEOFREASON found errors in Mississippi's totals this morning that may give 2 additional delegates to Obama.

The Texas county conventions are coming up this weekend.

The Iowa state convention is likely to add 6 more delegates.

Other states that caucused are going thru the process and could add on more pledged delegates for Obama.

[99th_Monkey]

6. A-hem. Speaking as an Oregon Dem. voter, we're looking forward to putting Obama "over the top"

translation: Obama maybe won't "need no stinkin' super delegates" anyway ...

all the better for his candidacy in the GE...

woo - hoo. :bounce:

[davidpdx]

7. Damn straight

I'm a voter from Oregon AND voting from overseas. If Oregon puts Obama over the top that would be the icing on the cake.

[99th_Monkey]

11. Bush/Cheney/McCain's worst nightmare goes live.

"Little Beirut" makes history, puts Obama "over the top".

[roguevalley]

12. Oregon rules. Southern Oregon especially. ;)

RV, with you in spirit

[phrigndumass]

8. Oregon is May 20, I think?

Pelosi's plan is a good one, very democratic. Still, May 20 is two months away. That's lost time campaigning to beat McCain.

I'm thinking Senator Clinton's campaign will be mathematically out of it before then ... there will be a point in an upcoming primary where she will need more than 100% of the remaining superdelegates to win nomination (if she doesn't run out of money first).

For Senator Obama, every pledged delegate gained is one more superdelegate that Senator Clinton will need. And she needs 234 of the remaining 317 the way it is (74%).

Edited to add that last sentence.

[phrigndumass]

10. Just thought of something to add ...

234 of the remaining 317 ... that means Senator Obama's magic number is really 83 SDs instead of 102, because achieving 83 will put it out of reach for Senator Clinton's campaign.

Ha!

[crispini]

14. May is still early.

All of us may be freaking tired of this, but we're paying a LOT of attention to it. The average voter isn't.

Plus, there's already a monster grassroots operation in place left behind in many of these states from the primaries. :D

[grantcart]

17. good point - also if PA democrats are tired of it they can stop it

[Mme. Defarge]

19. This Obamagonian

has re-registered as Democrat (from Independent) to be a part of making that happen.

Anything to live down the shame of Bob Packwood and Tonya Harding, n'est ce pas?

[hogwyld]

15. It must be the pessimist in me, but I don't think

Obama is going to win Indiana, and I think the margins are going to be a LOT closer if not an outright Hillary win in NC. I'm sure she has her last day mailer and TV ads lined up so that they can't be negated by the O campaign. But as an Oregonian, I'll be happy to put an end to this fiasco.

[FatDave]

20. Wow, you really are a pessimist!

Indiana I agree is a little up in the air. There's not much recent polling data. NC though looks poised to be an Obama blowout. Unless you know something I don't. Do they have electronic voting or something?

[olkaz]

26. I can see why you'd be worried, but don't get stressed here.

Obama's ground game is better, and North Carolina is already solid Obama.

A close loss in Pennsylvania is a win for Obama.

[DeadElephant_ORG]

4. excellent excellent excellent

[cliffordu]

5. K AND R

:kick:

[damndude]

9. time to shock and awe

[Window]

13. K/R.

:kick:

[grantcart]

16. morning kick

[Scurrilous]

18. K & R

:thumbsup:

[grantcart]

21. Another superdelegate endorses Obama

Congressman Lipinski backs Obama for president

March 26, 2008Recommend (11)

FROM THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Congressman Dan Lipinski is backing U.S. Senator Barack Obama's presidential bid.

Lipinski had been one of the two remaining holdouts among Democratic superdelegates in Illinois' congressional delegation. He says he's endorsed Obama because of the candidate's emphasis on overcoming partisanship and uniting the country.

[grantcart]

22. Fat Cats for Clinton try and stop the "Pelosi" Number

Wealthy pro-Clinton Democrats escalated their efforts to keep the nomination battle between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton open through the remainder of the primaries and to encourage uncommitted superdelegates not to be guided solely by the pledged delegate count in casting their votes at the convention.

A group of major contributors to the Democratic Party sent a letter to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi today calling on her to back away from previous comments and reaffirm that superdelegates should be free to back whichever candidate they believe would be the party's best nominee.

The contributors said Pelosi has laid out an "untenable position that runs counter to the party's intent in establishing superdelegates in 1984" by suggesting on ABC's "This Week" recently that supedelegates should support whichever candidate has the lead in pledged delegates. "If the votes of the superdelegates overturn what happened in the elections it would be harmful to the Democratic Party," she said


http://blog.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/03/26/clinton_donors_warn_pelosi_on.html

[Khaotic]

23. All Too True

I went over this in the thread linked below:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=5077818

Here were my predictions:



The only way she is competitive is if FL & MI are seated as is.

Here's another reason it's over:



That's without FL & MI.

Want to know how things stand with all the combinations of how FL & MI could be used, or not used?

This was made up on March 14:



HERE'S THE DEAL: IF FL & MI ARE LEFT OUT, I SAY IT'S OVER AFTER THE MAY 20TH VOTE ... PERIOD.

Obama will have 50%+1 and Hillary will be TOLD to step aside.

[grantcart]

25. You may want to use this thread to redo your PA results

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=4924604

[grantcart]

24. add another Super Delegate to the "Pelosi List"

8) Betty Richie (TX) http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0802/21/ltm.03.html

[grantcart]

27. If this can be sustained and increased for 10 days then superdelegates will start to move

[L0oniX]

28. Kick

[grantcart]

29. Add another superdelegate Don Williams CT

http://www.cpbn.org/state-leaders-announce-their-support-presidential-candidate-barack-obama



The grassroots effort to elect Senator Barack Obama for President is building in Connecticut with the announcement that a diverse group of state leaders are supporting the campaign.

Former Democratic candidate for Senate, Ned Lamont failed to defeat incumbent, Joseph Lieberman in 2006.

Now, Lamont has reappeared in the political scene as a co-chair of Barack Obama's Connecticut Leadership Council alongside Senate President, Don Williams.

"I think Don and I have a thing for underdog campaigns, and this time we're going to win. Hey look, Hartford, I'm delighted to be back, I'm glad to be back for Barack Obama, the next President of the United States"

Lamont and Williams both referenced a poll released earlier this week that shows support for Obama trailing Hillary Clinton by 14 points among Connecticut voters.

Williams says despite Connecticut's size and number of delegates, the state does matter because residents will vote on Super Tuesday, along with 22 other states.

"We are the underdog in the state of Connecticut, but the Obama campaign is surging, there is a tremendous outpouring of support that you see here today and we are going to hit the streets running and turn this around and win!"

Obama's organizational team includes 50 members of Connecticut's General Assembly and other government leaders like New Haven Mayor John DeStefano.

After the Obama press conference at the State Capitol, the Clinton campaign put out a statement also listing the names of legislative and municipal leaders in the state who are supporting the New York Senator.

[BumRushDaShow]

30. This new SD report is great news! n/t

[grantcart]

31. better yet if we had more to report lol