The Puerto Rican Wild Card - Hillary could net 1 million + popular votes

[Herman Munster]

Little known fact with big implications down the road for who wins the popular vote.

Puerto Ricans have a history of much higher voting turnout than is common in the states. They vote as tradition and take it very seriously.

A good proxy for how Puerto Rico will go is how latinos voted in New York since there is an enormous puerto rican community in New York and it is the one state with the closest ties both economic and political to the island. FYI, Hillary won New York Latinos 3 to 1.

In a high turnout scenario with 52% voting or 2 million voters, Hillary could get a 1 million popular vote margin.

Especially since the Governor who endorsed Obama is now discredited and the island's embarassment in jail.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/2008/03/the_puerto_rico_wildcard.html

Turnout could be very large. There are four important points to keep in mind. First, Puerto Ricans tend to be better voters than those of us stateside. In the last four presidential elections, our participation rate has been about 39% of the total population. About 2 million Puerto Ricans voted in 2004, or about 52% of the public. Bear in mind that they did not get to vote for president. Those are votes for governor and resident commissioner.

..

Fourth, Puerto Ricans are United States citizens, but are not entitled to a vote in the presidential election. This will therefore be the first time that Puerto Rico has had an opportunity to play a major role in a presidential election.

I think that, all in all, this implies high turnout. Puerto Ricans actually vote. Their political questions often involve the commonwealth's relationship to the mainland. The primary is open. And they have not had this chance ever before. That is a potent combination.

[Hawkeye-X]

1. Great, Munster, except for one tiny problem.

Hillary could be gone before June. She is REALLY deep in the red.

Also, you keep forgetting the caucus states that doesn't really add up the popular votes. Hell, Obama could be easily leading 4x or more to Hillary's popular total.

Also, PR has superdelegates that have already endorsed Obama, so your bullshit is already debunked.

[Lucinda]

2. Super delegates don't have anything to do with the popular vote numbers

[Hawkeye-X]

4. See my edit.

Doesn't make any difference. PR votes June 3rd, it'll be long over by then. Hillary will blow it all in PA and still lose.

Hawkeye-X

[Herman Munster]

7. she will win PA by a minimum of 15 points and likely 20 or more

Were you one of the obamabots that thought he would win Texas or Ohio?

Be honest. I can use the search function to check you.

[Hawkeye-X]

10. I declared NARROWLY.

And feel free to search me.

And right now recent polls shows that Obama is within 10% of Hillary, and rising steadily. I'll declare that it could go EITHER WAY by a narrow margin of say 2-3%, and Obama wins IN, NC and OR. Want more?

Hawkeye-X

[Herman Munster]

18. study the history of rasmussen polls

they always overestimate obama support.

Always.

Let's talk when the next survey usa poll comes out with hillary leading by 15 or more.

You can't change demographics even by hoping and wishing.

Obama winning or coming close in Pennsylvania is as likely as Hillary winning or coming close in Mississippi.

It aint going to happen but it's amusing to watch Obamabots hope and wish it would.

It just makes your eventual dissapointment on election night more amusing.

[loveangelc]

21. Do you still believe Hillary will win North Carolina on momentum?lol

[Hawkeye-X]

24. SInce when do you take right-wing polls as gospel? N/T

[Herman Munster]

34. survey usa is a right wing poll?

Do you know anything about politics? lol

[Hawkeye-X]

You said Rasmussen, not SUSA.

Stop lying, Hermie.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5288150&mesg_id=5288268

[Herman Munster]

45. you mentioned a 10 point spread in PA

That was a rasmussen poll.

I told you to study the history of rasmussen and wait for survey usa.

What is wrong with your reading comprehension?

[Hawkeye-X]

60. Well, I don't give two rat's turds about you either.

I'd love to see you down on your knees crying because you don't HAVE any clue what the fuck you are talking about when the PA primaries rolls around and the turnout and the votes are exactly what I predicted.

You said 15/20 blowout for Hillary. I'll take your bet, and ask that you donate $100 to the Obama Campaign and renounce Hillary as your Lord and Savior and embrace Obama and the man who'll lead the road to victory - if I'm RIGHT.

If you agree to this bet, I'll bookmark this and come back to it.

[MADem]

38. Anything that doesn't support the "approved" version of reality is right wing.

Anyone who hasn't had a good slug of the Happy Juice is a "Freeper."

It's astounding. Who knew???

[loveangelc]

19. in Pennsylvania?

[PetraPooh]

42. Uhm, he did win in pledged delegates in TX as far as current stats provide.

[earthlover]

61. Hillary has to win by more than 15% in EVERY STATE from now on!

15% is chump change!

She has to win by more than 20%. And some of the future contests are Obama's by any measure. So, among the rest, hillary needs even MORE!

Enough of the fantasy. The entire race is not goint to revolve over flipping Puerto Rico forcrissake!

PA may well go Hillary. But by 65-70%? And that still wouldn't make much difference?

[dionysus]

65. pssst, he won texas....

:eyes:

[Lucinda]

57. LOL. I don't think so.

[Blondbostonian]

5. The popular vote dosen't decide the winner. Total delegates does.

Ask Nancy Pelosi.

[Lucinda]

59. That has NOTHING to do with my post.

[Lucinda]

3. Thanks HM. Good to hear!

:hi:

[loveangelc]

6. I think the sooner many Hillary supporters find out its probably almost over the better

for them. It's time to accept this and it won't be as hard later on.

[Herman Munster]

8. it's time for you to accept your candidate is a general election loser

[loveangelc]

12. LOL yeah right. Hillary supporters, keep talking yourself into believing that.

Like I said, it won't be so hard later on if you just start to accept it now. I'm only thinking of you : )

[Herman Munster]

23. is that why you freaked out when the wright story broke?

And started posting all scared that Obama would be hurt in the general election.

You aren't fooling me.

[loveangelc]

32. yeah you're right I was worried about the wright story. but the media overplayed it and now

it's getting old to voters. have i been worried as of late? no. that's why hillary has the highest negatives of any presidential candidate, and do not give me the one outlier rasmussen poll that has obama's negatives higher than every other poll.

I doubt you have room to talk about anyone. Didn't you say Hillary would blow out Obama on super tuesday at one point? do you still believe hillary will win NC on momentum?

[Herman Munster]

35. if she wins PA by 20 or more yes

I posted my 3 benchmarks and winning PA by 20 or more is necessary for her to win NC.

[loveangelc]

43. According to polls she isn't going up in polls even after TX and OH.

Guess what, momentum means nothing. you have to look at the demographics of each state. If taht were so, Obama would have won TX and OH. I don't think one state is going to look at another state and vote the same way because someone won big there, even if she did win by 20 points.

NC has a large african american population (larger than virginia), many college campuses and a more educated white population than many other southern states. I don't think they are going to be looking as to what Pennsylvania did 2 weeks before as to what they will do.

she'll do well in the western, mountain areas just like virginia, but the most populous areas in NC have a large AA population. You think they'll vote for Hillary b/c of Pa??

[Hawkeye-X]

14. You'll be whistling a different tune, kid.

Either put up, or get out.

[Mooney]

37. Repeat after me: Hillary Clinton will NEVER WIN the general election.

Barack Obama has flaws that may hurt him in the general election. So does John McCain. Hillary Clinton, on the other hand, has had half the country sharpening their knives for her for sixteen years. They CANNOT WAIT to vote against her.

I'll spell this out for you: Half the country loathes Hillary Clinton and will never vote for her under any circumstances. She will not win a single independent or crossover Republican vote. Not one. She has also done a fine job during this primary season of alienating many Democrats, too. This means that she is unelectable, and she always was even before this race got started. She was unelectable before the Iowa caucuses. She was unelectable before Snipergate. She has always been unelectable, since "day one." She is going to lose the election if she is the nominee. She is going to lose BADLY. It will be a thunderous, humiliating defeat of epic, embarrassing proportions. And she is so unpopular, it will cost us in downticket races, too. Goodbye, narrow majorities in the house and senate. Can you spell "FUCKED FOR THE NEXT EIGHT YEARS"? Hillary Clinton absolutely will not win the general election, under any circumstances, period. Get used to it.

I apologize if my post was in any way ambiguous.

[DUyellow]

49. Is that better then a Dem Nom losser?

[TheDeathadder]

25. No it isn't

and no it won't

[Spider Jerusalem]

9. Except that the primaries are about winning delegates, not popular vote.

Popular vote is in fact a worthless metric when many states select convention delegates through a caucus process and do not even COUNT the number of caucus voters. Anyone who thinks that Hillary's deficit of between one hundred to two hundred in pledged delegates is going to be trumped by popular vote is either delusional or stupid. Especially when even in the scenario you posit, given the likely outcome of other contests and her current deficit, she's not likely to end up ahead in 'popular vote' (which is, again, a worthless metric in a system where so many delegates are decided by caucus).

[Hawkeye-X]

17. Hear hear, SJ

I've already said that on my reply, but HM continues to ignore that and honks his way through.

:applause:

[tritsofme]

27. Its no more of a worthless metric than a lead in pledged delegates.

Until someone crosses over the 2025 line all variables should be looked at to determine the will of the people in the race.

[Spider Jerusalem]

31. You're wrong...

what part of 'delegates selected by caucus that don't copunt individual voters' are you incapable of processing? The very fact that the so-called 'popular vote' totals don't include all voters makes it prima facie a worthless metric.

[tritsofme]

52. However we can make reasonable projections to account for all scenarios.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/chooseyourown.html

[meow mix]

11. you should start accepting loss now hermie. practice by pretending she can still get vp.

which aint gonna happen either

[Renew Deal]

13. lol, so now territories are important

You guys crack me up.

[Ichingcarpenter]

28. Not Puerto Rico, but the island of Vieques off the coast of Puerto Rico

and in particular, the guy in the orange boat on the lower right of the
photograph.

[Renew Deal]

30. The island that Bill insisted on bombing while everyone else said no.

Oh yeah.

[Chicken George]

40. Oh NO! Bill, along with the former governor were the ones who

made the vote possible for the NAVY to give up the bases. Bush had no choice but to honor the will of the people.

[Ichingcarpenter]

41. Yep, that island n/t

[VolcanoJen]

36. US Protectorates Count!!!

Iowa, Idaho, Missouri, Virginia, et al... not so much. :-)

[Medusa]

15. She's gambling on puerto rico?

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

[dchill]

22. Well, they DO have casinos...

:rofl:

[dchill]

16. The Democratic Party...

counts delegates, not popular votes.

[MadHound]

20. OMG, don't tell me that you're really doing this

Please don't tell me that you're pinning your hopes on Puerto Rico(no insult intended to the fine people of Puerto Rico). Don't tell me that this is what the Hillary campaign has come down to, rallying around a politically insignificant protectorate that has little influence in the greater scope of things.

Do you realize how desperate, and desperately pathetic you're sounding? How really sad that it is coming down to this, the Hillary campaign pinning their last hopes on Puerto Rico.

For your sake, for the sake of all Hillary supporters, and for the dignity of Senator Clinton, I truly hope that Hillary pulls out before it comes down to this last gasp of a political failure.

[AllentownJake]

26. When we reform the primaries for next election

If you arent' a state you don't get a vote.

Puerto Rico has voted down statehood several times. Till they are the 51st star no vote for you.

[Chicken George]

39. What about Guam, The US Virgin Islands, etc?

I thought that the DEMOCRATIC Party was all about ALL DEMOCRATS voting AND their votes being counted. Fortunately you have no say whatsoever in those very important matters.

[madrchsod]

48. what about poland!

[Chicken George]

51. What about it?

Ask your president.

[madrchsod]

58. i did`t vote for him --twice!

[AllentownJake]

64. I don't think

They should get a vote either. They can't vote for the party nominee in the election why should they have a say in the primary.

[jefferson_dem]

29. Absolute best case scenario for your girl...

2,000,000 turnout. Hillary wins by 25% margin. Nets 500,000 votes. Won't happen and wouldn't be enough anyway.

Sorry, Charlie.

Plug in your own numbers ---> http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/chooseyourown.html

[ProSense]

33. That's silly! Obama would get nearly a million votes, and even if Hillary gets all the delegates

she'd still be behind.

[madrchsod]

46. no he won`t get a million votes,,, the p r`s will vote for hillary

because they did in new york city...plus it`s an open primary. obama will get about 25% of the vote..see the numbers and logic is all there!

[slick8790]

50. Numbers and logic? Where?

All I see is some Hillbot talking out of their ass. Unless Obama has some massive implosion between now and then, he won't drop below 40%.

[madrchsod]

55. it`s magic!

yes she`ll wave a her hand and all will be good in the magic kingdom!

i`m just a--->







tonight



:woohoo:

[madrchsod]

44. michigan and florida don`t count but they are states

p r is not a state ,can`t vote for president ,but can vote in an open primary....


ok hillary can make up her votes in p r instead of michigan and florida...actually not a bad idea ,we know the pr`s will vote for hillary because they did in new york...

[RBInMaine]

47. More Hillary supporter pipe dreams.

[Bad Thoughts]

53. But it doesn't count: PR isn't as swing state in the GE

Sorry, but I had to throw out this bit of poor logic: it does seem that Clinton's campaign should dismiss the importance of Puerto Rico because it carries no importance for Democrats in the November election.

[grantcart]

54. If it was to be about the popular vote Obama would have run a campaign for the popular vote

Now in here and among Clinton surrogates there is the beginning of the whisper that "only the popular vote should be counted". Of course Senator Obama has a 721,993 lead in popular vote in contested primaries. By somehow adding in the uncontested and disallowed primaries in Michigan and Florida Clinton math experts hope that they can reverse the lead in popular vote and claim legitimacy for their campaign.

Their is a word for this. A simple clear word for changing the indicator, the finish line, the time on the clock or whatever else you want to call it.

The word is: Cheating.

And now as Obama is only 221 pledged delegates from securing 50% +1 of the pledged delegate total Senator Bayh and supporters in here are trying to recast the goal. Now it is about finishing with the most popular vote.

Senator Bayh - that is cheating. In a family growing up with two brothers we spent half of the time competing and half the time trying to change the rules so we could change the outcome. We cheated. When we reached twelve we stopped cheating.

If the popular vote was going to be the determining factor then we really don't even need a convention. Oh and by the way Senator Obama would not have spent time and money in places like Idaho. He wouldn't have bothered with a single caucus but would have been running up popular vote totals instead.

This race is about delegates not the popular vote.

Senator Bayh, Clinton surrogates and some Clinton DU supporters if you keep insisting on trying to change the rules at the end of the game then you leave me with no alternative.

I am going to have to tell your mother that you are cheating again.

[davidpdx]

56. Actually I read somewhere that since this is the first time PR has voted for president

in direct elections, they stated there is no precident for what may or may not happen.

[totodeinhere]

62. Stop the misinformation.

The governor has been indicted but he is not in jail. He is innocent until proven guilty and he has denied the charges.

[bvar22]

63. Gosh, maybe Hillary should have thought about Puerto Rico...

..before she shit all over Gov. Richardson this week.

Anyone know how the "We don't need the Latin vote anymore because Texas is over"...and "Richardson is Judas" is playing in Puerto Rico?




"There are forces within the Democratic Party who want us to sound like kinder, gentler Republicans. I want us to compete for that great mass of voters that want a party that will stand up for working Americans, family farmers, and people who haven't felt the benefits of the economic upturn."---Paul Wellstone

[meow mix]

66. K&R BWHAHAHA

too funny