Hillary Clinton: Pundits vs Reality

[OzarkDem]

Pretty interesting list....

http://blog.hillaryclinton.com/blog/main/2008/03/28/151845

THE PUNDITS
Hillary Clinton will lose New Hampshire and the race will be over

THE REALITY
Hillary Clinton wins New Hampshire, defying the predictions and the polls


THE PUNDITS
Hillary Clinton will lose the big states on Super Tuesday and the race will be over

THE REALITY
Hillary Clinton wins the big states on Super Tuesday – and wins them by double digits

THE PUNDITS
Barack Obama is substantially ahead in the popular vote; Florida and Michigan don’t count; therefore the race is essentially over

THE REALITY
The popular vote is virtually tied; half of Barack Obama's narrow vote advantage is from his home state; and his lead excludes Florida and Michigan

[FrenchieCat]

1. You forgot to list the pundits who said that Hillary was "inevitable"

for about one year. That would be all of them, I do believe.

[anonymous171]

2. You counted FL and MI again. fail.

Hillary won big states on Super Tuesday, but came out behind in delegate count. Hillary only won NH because of the pity vote and the pity vote only.

[OzarkDem]

5. Yep, they count

they will vote in November, too.

[anonymous171]

11. And Obama will actually campaign there in the GE.

Face it, Clinton wins solely on name recognition and familiarity in places where no one campaigns.

[MadBadger]

3. She won California by 8 points

What other big state did the pundits say she wasnt going to win on Super Tuesday?

Oh, and Obama is up 700,000 votes, that is hardly virtually tied.

And Florida and Michigan dont count.

[kid a]

4. 3/27/2008: RUDE PUNDIT - HILARY, GET OUT

[OzarkDem]

6. Equal number of voters want Obama to get out

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/22_of_democrats_want_clinton_to_drop_out_22_say_obama_should_withdraw

[That Guy 888]

17. No doubt it's the same 22% who think the guy winning by over 100 delegates...

should immediately capitulate and eagerly become the losing candidate's VP

[DJ13]

7. You forgot the biggest mistake pundits made

"Hillary is inevitable" throughout most of 2007.

[OzarkDem]

9. Same with "Obama is inevitable"

Doesn't work in either scenario

[DJ13]

14. Which pundist said that?

[OzarkDem]

15. Its the Obama meme these days

from his supporters and some columnists and pundits. Look it up yourself.

Or are you saying Obama winning the primary and GE isn't inevitable?

[redqueen]

18. It's not just his supporters... it's people who 'get' math. (nt)

[OzarkDem]

20. But "the math" is wrong

its simply some arbitrary guidelines Obama has imposed on the primary race, nothing more.

The race is a tie, no one should drop out unless they want to.

[redqueen]

21. No... it's math.

There are only so many delegates left. She'd have to win by much larger margins than she has so far in order to have a chance. Given her campaign's recent issues, and the way the remaining states are expected to vote, that's virtually impossible at this point.

The only way that she could still win it is if something so damning comes out about Obama that she does manage to get the remaining primaries by unbelievably huge margins... or she convinces delegates to flip.

[OzarkDem]

22. Keep sayin' it

doesn't make it real. And don't forget, delegates are allowed to change their minds and their votes.

The biggest measure of success is in the popular vote - it doesn't matter if 100% of delegates vote for Obama, if he can't beat McCain in the GE - we still lose.

Focus on the GE.

[redqueen]

23. Would you care to tell me what part you disagree with?

Please?

[OzarkDem]

25. Delegates change, they are not absolute

same w/ super-delegates. And many delegates have yet to be chosen since the primary races aren't over. Unless you are clairvoyant, you can't predict how it will turn out.

The tendency of Obama supporters to impose some sort of absolute value on delegate counts and primary elections that haven't taken place is ridiculous on its face.

An the bottom line is winning the GE.

[anonymous171]

28. I think we should eliminate primaries and caucuses

and just let pledged and super delegates choose the nominee instead. It would be a lot cheaper and we would appease the Clinton wing of the party.

[redqueen]

33. But I said that...

I accounted for that possibility, but I really do think the chances of it happening are far from good. I can't predict accurately, no... but we can make reasonable estimations, and none of them look good for Clinton's candidacy. She's almost single-handedly driven her negatives skyward over the last couple of weeks. And now her donors are making threats to try to increase her chances... how they thought that would be helpful is beyond me.

I'm not making this case as an Obama supporter... but as someone who has watched the predictions of those who have been doing this type of thing as their career, for years. No, those primaries haven't taken place... but odds are what they are. Short of some huge scandal hurting Obama, I don't see any reason to expect that things will play out in any way other than forecast.

Agreed re: the bottom line.

[TheWraith]

8. Apparently, a one million vote lead is now considered "virtually tied."

More spin from a dying campaign.

[OzarkDem]

12. FL and MI will vote in November

and yes, their votes count, especially if Dems want to win the GE.

[Drachasor]

27. Pretending that the current Michigan is somehow fair to count is ludicrous

You undermine yourself by pretending that it is. Most would contend that Florida isn't fair either, since Hillary had a huge advantage in name recognition for there was no campaigning.

[TheWraith]

32. And at that point nobody will care in the least whether the primaries were counted or not.

The only people who DO care in the least are hard-core Democrats who you couldn't KEEP AWAY from the polls in November.

[cliffordu]

10. Is there such a thing as a delusional personality disorder?

Wasn't she supposed to be coronated after Stupor Tuesday??

Edited for stupid speling (sic)

[gabeana]

13. Correct me if I'm wrong but the Caucus states don't count

in the popular vote total, right?

[Life Long Dem]

19. Texas is a 3 step process. Tommorrow is a TX Causcus.

Where Obama is likely to take it.

[cottonseed]

30. I've been looking for that answer as well.

From my understanding, these "popular" vote totals are only from primary states. Caucus states don't put forth individual numbers to the popular vote count. If caucus states contributed to the popular vote total, Obama's lead would be much much more.

That's my understanding of it, but I hadn't been able to nail down a source for that. If you can find anything, I'd love to see it too.

[Life Long Dem]

16. NH was a fluke. Just don't say anything to make Hillary cry!

[Dogmudgeon]

24. Now look -- you scared them!

Here is what keeps them running to the bottle of Imodium:

Popular Vote Total (without FL and MI):
BHO: 13,355,239 (49.5%)
HRC: 12,637,963 (46.9%)
Obama +717,276 +2.6%

Pledged Delegates (without FL and MI):
BHO: 1414 (53.1%)
HRC: 1248 (46.8%)
Obama +166 +6.3%

(from http://www.realclearpolitics.com/">Real Clear Politics)

Several strong pro-Hillary states are coming up. And you wonder why they are screaming so loudly that Hillary Must Drop Out Now Or Else?

For all the attention given to Chuck Todd's dire predictions of Hillary's impending death by delegates (impending since January), it's a lot more likely that the two of them will go to the convention with Obama holding a delegate lead and Hillary with the majority of the popular vote.

Then we'll have to consider Bush v. Gore (2000).

"It'll never happen!"

Yeah, and Bush was supposed to win the popular vote with Gore winning the electoral in 2000. "Blood will run in the streets," the pundits were saying.

--p!
Ah. yes, I remember it well ...
(M. Chevalier.)

[OzarkDem]

26. PA scares them

Obama isn't getting much traction there, even after his "registration" drive.

[anonymous171]

29. lol. He's getting more everyday. Especially since Hillary is broke.

[JoFerret]

34. He will be buying the election?

.

[OzarkDem]

36. Um, no he's not

and it will be fun watching him spend a lot of money trying to change the result in PA.

[anonymous171]

37. See, he doesn't even have to win. All he has to do is look competitive (within 10%)

Then Hillary's narrative will be broken and she will fall.

[OzarkDem]

39. How's he doing against McCain?

[anonymous171]

40. Last poll I saw he was about 1 point above HRC but still losing to McLame.

[OzarkDem]

41. Not much of a lead, is it

[cali]

35. bzzzzt. wrong, dearie

we can read the polls. your hillypoo is sinking in the polls. Obama survived wright and is rising, including in PA. You're simply delusional if you think hilly can pull it off.

[Drachasor]

31. So Illinois shouldn't count? That entire argument falls apart under examination, behold!

Obama is leading by about 150 (so first off, that's not half his lead).

Looking more closely, Hillary got a net 46 delegates out of New York. I guess we shouldn't count that either. Should we ignore Arkansas too? She got a net 19 Delegates there. Obama got a net 8 out of Hawaii.

So let's see, that's a net of 63 Delegates out of Obama's "home States" and 65 that Hillary got from her "home States."

Or do only Obama's not count?

[ecdab]

38. Of course only Obama's don't count, it wouldn't be fair otherwise...

right???? :sarcasm:

[anamnua]

42. More added to the list

THE PUNDITS
Barack Obama is substantially ahead in the pledged delegate count; pledged delegates are the only measure of success; therefore the race is essentially over
THE REALITY
The candidates are within fractions of one another on delegates; Barack Obama needs super delegates to win; and a marginal pledged delegate lead does not determine the outcome

THE PUNDITS
Hillary Clinton will lose Texas and possibly Ohio on March 4th and the race will be over
THE REALITY
Hillary Clinton wins both Texas and Ohio on March 4th – and she wins Ohio by double digits


THE PUNDITS
Despite Hillary Clinton's big victories on March 4th, "the math" works decisively against her and the race is essentially over
THE REALITY
The math is simple: neither candidate has reached the number of delegates required to
secure the nomination and either candidate can win




THE PUNDITS
Once the remaining states vote, Barack Obama will be substantially ahead in delegates and votes and the race will be over
THE REALITY
The race is a dead heat now and no one knows where things will end up after millions of remaining voters in the upcoming states make their choice


THE PUNDITS
Hillary Clinton's situation is dire; her campaign is struggling; her supporters are disillusioned and desperate
THE REALITY
Hillary Clinton and her supporters are calm, confident, and focused heading into the key
state of PA, where she is running strong


THE PUNDITS
Hillary Clinton’s campaign lacks significant grassroots energy; only one candidate has mobilized supporters to take action for the campaign
THE REALITY
Hillary Clinton’s supporters across America have written letters, blogged, donated tens of millions of dollars, volunteered millions of hours and made millions of calls


THE PUNDITS
There is a loud and growing chorus of voices asking Hillary Clinton to withdraw from the race
THE REALITY
Precisely the same number of voters (22%) think Barack Obama should drop out of the
race as Hillary Clinton


THE PUNDITS
Hillary Clinton is the candidate running a negative, divisive campaign; she is throwing the "kitchen sink" at Barack Obama
THE REALITY
Barack Obama has been throwing the sink, the stove, the plates and the garbage can at Hillary Clinton, attacking her integrity and character every day


THE PUNDITS
For Hillary to win the nomination, super delegates will have to "overturn the will of the
people"
THE REALITY
The will of the people is split and both candidates need - and are making their case to -
super delegates


THE PUNDITS
Hillary Clinton is threatening to poach pledged delegates from Barack Obama
THE REALITY
Barack Obama is reportedly already trying to poach pledged delegates from Hillary Clinton


THE PUNDITS
Florida and Michigan’s voters won't be heard and their delegates won’t be seated all
because of complicated procedural roadblocks
THE REALITY
Barack Obama is intentionally disenfranchising voters in two critical states for purely political reasons, namely, that he'll lose his small advantage if they count


THE PUNDITS
Every single word or action from Hillary Clinton, her campaign, her surrogates and her supporters is part of a calculated and cynical political strategy
THE REALITY
Hillary Clinton is a loyal Democrat, a lifelong public servant, a tireless and
tenacious candidate, and is fighting hard - and fair - to win the nomination

[anonymous171]

43. Obviously copied. The left off "e nomination" at the end is a clear giveaway.

More concentrated spamming from our dear friends at CH.