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No doubt Obama will win the nomination at this point. Hillary might win Pennsylvania by 10, maybe 15 if she is real lucky. But even with those wins she is too far behind to catch Obama, especially when he will win North Carolina. Hillary is hoping a Pastorgate Version Two happens and is much worse than the first one. But it won’t happen. The tide is now turning against Hillary.
But Hillary will use Florida and Michigan as a club against Obama for the next two months. It will distract from the real issues. It will make her supporters think “If we just had Florida and Michigan” we would win this thing. That, of course, is not true because even with a 20 point in those states and Pennsylvania she still is does not have enough delegates to catch Obama. That is how bad the situation is for Clinton.
But to appease the Hillary camp and her supporters I propose the following. Have Zogby, Gallup and Rasmussen do a huge, 2000+ sample, poll of the Michigan and Florida voters. The larger the sample the lower the margin of error. Then you have Hillary and Obama sit down in the room with Dean and agree on a number from the polls and then give the winners their delegates. You still need to punish the two states by reducing the number of available delegates but at least they are represented in Denver. And is they leave the room with no agreement then they both get nothing!
This solution solves the issue with Clinton being unhappy with the states not being counted. It also makes the Florida and Michigan voters happy again with the party. It is also a simple and cheap solution that should cost no more than $300,000 which could be picked up by the DNC. And it stops Hillary from using the two states to make the process sound like it is against her.
I think Obama might lose Florida at most by 15 points and will tie or win Michigan. This, after the delegate penalty for Florida and Michigan would only cost Obama 15 to 20 delegates. I think that loss would be worth the grief he is getting now from the Clinton camp and also make the Florida and Michigan voters happy.
It would also stop the Clintons from whining about the two states for the next three months.
Hillary is getting desperate and this at least solves one issue in her kitchen sink!
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