a question for each side ...and i am, for sure ,serious

[SwampG8r]

i want to know what would be considered a "win"
by the clinton and the obama camps in pa.
she was up once i believe by 30 points,
now i think its in the low teens.
i have no citations for these numbers.

from obama supporters, and ,i am one myself,since it seems we will not win the vote itself,
what will be considered a "win" ?

and from clinton supporters,
since all polling says she will win pa,
what percentage point spread will make you feel she has rebuilt some momentum?

this isnt flame bait, so if all you can add to the discussion is "uh uh no way---uh huh yes way"
then please, go elsewhere.

as i said i am supporting obama but i know ,because i have actully encountered them,some democrats here are working for hillary. your ideas are still important and so is your input.
i am a floridian and i feel if we en up at the convention withoua nominee ,then so be it.
but....
i also dont want to see the '68 or '72 elections relived.

[kirby]

1. My understanding...

is that Sen Clinton would have to get something 65-70% in ALL of the remaining states to break even with Sen Obama.

[SwampG8r]

3. only talkin pa. one day at atime my friend lol

[kirby]

6. My friend?

Is that you McCain? You up late doing research with the google?

[SwampG8r]

25. mc cain is your friend? nm

[kirby]

33. You dont get the joke?

McCain always starts his sentences with 'My friend'. He uses in the same sentence that tells you to bugger off.

[Maribelle]

35. I got it ...

and I thought it was funny.

[RazBerryBeret]

2. I would consider it a win if

Obama can come within 5 points of her. She's always been favored to win big. if they end up with ALMOST the same amount of delegates I would consider it a win. I'm still hoping he can pull it out and win more of the votes--if that would happen, it would probably be the biggest upset of the primary season....

[americanstranger]

4. By my lights, if Obama gets within 10%

it's all good.

The Expectations game (and plenty of Clinton partisans) are looking for a blowout win - 15 to 20% to re-gain momentum going forward. If Hillary doesn't blow him out in PA, get your fork.

- as

[quakerboy]

16. I agree.

within 10% would be major for Obama.

60/40 or worse would be a setback for Obama.

And there is a really wide Grey area that doesn't really help anyone enough and just gives the damn pundits more to spin with.

Granted the 65% is what she really needs, but she can stay technically in the game with a little less, because the superdelegates can give a fair amount of wiggle room to either side.

[housewolf]

27. I heard Obama's campaign say that too... within 10 points would be a win

[Lucky 13]

28. A win for Hillary is if an asteroid falls to earth and strikes Obama.

Other than that, she's toast.
:rofl:

[Coexist]

5. a win for Clinton is subjective

and depends on which of these narratives the press decides to run with:

- she was up 30%, so she needs at least 20% to prove it really is a win.

- she needs the 65% of the delegates required for her to be a mathmatical contestant

- she wins by even 1%, that is a win, even though a delegate tie, she is 'creeping up on obama in the popular vote' meme.

Personally, I think that a win of less than 14% is a huge loss for her.

[John Q. Citizen]

13. I was going to say if she wins by less than 15% she's lost. She needs 57% of the vote minimum to.

barely hang on and try to spin that as momentum.

She really needs to win by 65% to honstly claim a big and significant win.

[RazBerryBeret]

7. did anyone see

Tim Russert talking about that "strategy memo" that the Obama camp accidentally sent to a reporter? It was before super tuesday, and they had surprisingly forecast the states they would win (pretty accurately). I saw it on a video, but can't seem to find it now. I was just wondering if PA was in their win column or not....I know they had forecast NOT winning Ohio or TX...just wondering...

[ossman]

9. I was just thinking about that today. It has been spot on in its predictions. It went to Bloomberg

Russert is the only one that talks about it. Let me know if you find it. Im too lazy.

[RazBerryBeret]

14. ok, it took some time...

but I found it!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xAPkoqW-yWo


why would it be titled "Russert Damas"?

and here's the actual "memo"

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0208/Obamas_projections.html

[ossman]

15. I found this spreadsheet too.

http://ia341038.us.archive.org/1/items/Obamaexcel/obamacampaignexcel.xls


http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/02/reading-the-returns-election-n.php

[RazBerryBeret]

20. awesome....

see, you shouldn't label yourself Lazy!!!

nice to see they haven't projected to win PA....
AND they won Maine, which they weren't projecting...

[Tatiana]

22. Good God, these predictions are SPOT-ON ACCURATE.

Their goal seems to be to get within 5% of Clinton in PA.

Wow! The Obama team really did their homework. Also, interesting to note, they think they can win Indiana. http://journals.democraticunderground.com/Tatiana/23">So do I.

[RazBerryBeret]

24. yes, it's amazing...

that it was written BEFORE super tuesday.
they've run such a sharp campaign.....

I HOPE they can win Indiana!

[izzybeans]

8. One stage in a race matters as a part of the whole sum, what matters is the sum.

[gravity]

10. Hillary needs to win by 30%

to make a viable argument in getting the nomination.

If she wins by 20%, she will declare herself the winner, but it ain't gonna help her chances.

If within 10%, Obama will probably be better off from this because he held his ground on a state heavily favoring Hillary.

and if Obama beats Hillary by 1%, I bet she will even see that it is over for her

[BlooInBloo]

11. For Obama, a win is prolly anything that doesn't eat into his delegate lead much.

[Johnny__Motown]

12. I would call an even delegate split a win for Obama. anything less is a loss (if only a slight one)

[JVS]

17. Anything less than a 20% win is a loss for Hillary. Delegate-wise she needs more, but I'll move...

the goalpost closer for her in this case.

[SoCalDem]

18. After Wisconsin she needed to win ALL states by 60% or MORE

to even close the gap (she hasn't..and won't)

PA is just window-dressing for her..

She'll probably win by single digits and the delegate count will be close..Obama will more than make it up with NC and what he wins in Indiana..

It's mathematically impossible for her to catch him..she just won;t admit it

[2008]

19. When one quits, the other remains

the winner is the one who remains

unless neither quits

then it gets interesting

[rocktivity]

21. Funny you should ask this on the night that Obama appears to have taken TX

Hillary needs to get close enough to Obama to be able to plead her case to the superdelegates without looking like a complete idiot. That will require that she win at least 65% of popular vote in PA and in all the other remaining contests, so I'd say that she has to win PA by at least 20 points just to look legitimate. (The MSM will no doubt scream "Comeback Kid!" if she wins at all, but don't believe the hype--they have an agenda of their own.) An Obama Texas victory raises that margin. Obama's "magic number," therefore, is an average of about 40% of the popular vote from here on in.

:headbang:
rocknation

[SwampG8r]

23. i gotta go to bed

but you all have done n ol man heart good
so far almost every post replying was actually thought out
i commend both sides for this
give yourselves a pat on the back
and ill buy everyone a beer

:toast:

[EmperorHasNoClothes]

26. Here's some percentages

Currently Clinton needs 66% of the remaining pledged delegates to tie Obama (in pledged delegates)

If she wins 70% in PA, she will need 65% of the delegates in every state after Pennsylvania
If she wins 65% in PA, she will need 67% of the delegates in every state after Pennsylvania
If she wins 60% in PA, she will need 69% of the delegates in every state after Pennsylvania
If she wins 55% in PA, she will need 71% of the delegates in every state after Pennsylvania
If she wins 50% in PA, she will need 73% of the delegates in every state after Pennsylvania

[helderheid]

36. thanks for this

[Hamlette]

29. Hillary will move the goal posts to a .0001% win as a landslide if necessary

If Obama loses by more than 10%, I'll nervously check his delegate count, which should still be fine.

A question of equal significance is NC. How will they do there?

[RazBerryBeret]

30. in the strategy memo....

the Obama campaign has projected a win in NC, 53% - 45%

[Hamlette]

31. thanks...I was hoping for a little more

my guess is the two states cancel each other out. She'll have about 10 in PA he'll have about 10 in NC

[bigbrother05]

32. HRC needs +15%, BHO needs -5%

Obviously the Clinton campaign will tout 1 vote as a victory, but given that everyone has called PA Clinton country and the spread was so high, anything less than a blowout would not bring her additional SD support.

If Obama can get it close, he will match her delegate take in PA and can claim to have reclaimed momentum. With a balance of support in PA, some of the SDs on the fence should feel comfortable to declare for the clear frontrunner.

A finish in between will mean groundhog day, six more weeks of divisive campaigning.

[goldcanyonaz]

34. Clinton would have to win every vote in the state to have a victory on this forum.