What are Hillary's chances to win the Dem nomination?

[Colobo]

Poll question: What are Hillary's chances to win the Dem nomination?

Let's talk rationally about it. I say 30%- there are still several states left that might favor her and we never know what superD's will wind up doing.

[H2O Man]

1. Zero.

Senator Clinton can's "win" the nomination.

[terrell9584]

12. more than 50%

In the 1912 campaign the delegate leader was a man named Clark. Back then there was a rule requiring that a candidate recieve 2/3s of the delegates to recieve a nomination. He wasn't able to do it, and in the end, his challenger who came into it with less delegates ended up winning on a late ballot

His name was Thomas Woodrow Wilson, and he provided the first Democratic presidential victory in 20 years.

This campaign needs to play out and the convention needs to play out. That's what a convention in theory is supposed to be for, to choose a presidential candidate. This is not going to be a repeat of 1968, because Denver doesn't have a Daley and I just can't see mass protests occuring in Colorado.

The best ticket possible will come out of it. People just need to have faith.

[KittyWampus]

18. Clinton's ego maniacal insistence on staying in does not inspire any kind of faith.

[terrell9584]

22. why is it egomaniacal?

If there had been no caucuses, the two would be seperated by a smaller number of delegates. You may say it's parsing to count Florida and Michigan right now, but the fact is if you do, Clinton actually leads in the national primary vote. Michigan should have a new primary and Florida's should stand as is, because Florida's did follow demographic stereotypes in the state. Edwards did well where you expected he would, Obama did well where you expected he would, he bombed in Palm Beach, which you expected he would, and you could go on and on. And both candidates advertised in Florida. I live in a media market that includes Florida territory. They were running Florida ads in early January, Clinton and Obama. So Obama actually did get air time in the state and it still didn't work for him.

There is a real chance that Hillary could be leading in the national primary vote (maybe even caucus) at the end of this.

The only reason I have heard for her to drop out is, Obama supporters are afraid of it going on longer because it might cause him to lose. Well, if you are afraid that he might lose if the election goes on then just how the hell is he going to survive a fall campaign where Republican 527s will be 5 times as dirty as the Clintons have been. The Clintons have been real tame compared to what he will see in the fall.

If Obama can only win with Hillary dropping out right now, then that does not inspire my faith in him as a candidate in the fall. This is the way actual competitive multi-demographic elections work. This is the first time he has ever had to face such a thing. I see no reason why we should disenfranchise the voters of KY, WV, PA, NC, OR, SD, PR, Guam, and the two disputed states. If Obama is meant to be President he will survive the campaign, even if it goes to the convention. If he is not, then he won't

[Asgaya Dihi]

23. To openly plagiarize another post from this morning...

if my aunt had balls she'd be my uncle.

If there had been no caucuses? But there were, and there always have been, that's the way elections have always been run. They aren't new and the rules were known about as well to one side as they were to the other, they had just as much time and opportunity to learn the rules and similar opportunities to advance themselves under them. If one side ran the better campaign that's how politics is supposed to work, that's how we get the winner.

Don't you all see what's wrong with trying to argue and change the rules in the middle of the game like this? It doesn't have even the smallest chance of working and it just makes the campaign look desperate. It's pure sour grapes.

[Colobo]

2. Kick.

[tridim]

3. I'll go with 2%

Just like milk.

[ulysses]

4. legitimately?

Around 10%.

[gateley]

5. I gave her 20% --

just because we've had the rug pulled out from us so many times during this campaign -- convinced of a certain outcome which doesn't materialize.

More than ever, I don't think we'll KNOW until it's a done deal.

[Ichingcarpenter]

11. Me Too!

Never, say never, I say....... almost never.

[sandnsea]

20. Obama has won at every turn

Hillary just won't freaking go away. He won or tied every race in Jan, fact. He won Super Tuesday. He won the rest of February. He won March, he won Texas. The only reason you think Hillary has won anything is because her campaign moves the goal posts and the media lets her get away with it.

[Johnny__Motown]

6. umm... 1/2 % ...?

[azmouse]

7. Thinking anything more than 10% is delusional.

Buh-bye Hillary.

[kid a]

8. clinton has 50% chance = WMD's in Iraq (wishful thinking, agenda driven denial)

[GoldieAZ49]

9. Super Delegates votes will choose the winner

at the least a 30% chance

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

10. So far, I rate this thread 4 butterfly nets

[Asgaya Dihi]

13. Next to nothing

The last few weeks have been hard on her, worse than the media has wanted to let on. It hasn't been a horse race for a while but the ratings are great so the impression has been left alive. The super delegates can count though even if the media and casual view can't.

The math aside she was hoping the supers would turn it over for her, it's not going to happen. She said experience was the most important thing then she congratulated McCain repeatedly on being so qualified. Next to her he's got a lot more experience and she pretty well painted herself into a corner with that one and didn't leave much room to argue. Obama can just ask "experience at what, taking us on the wrong path?" and better get away with it with the change mandate. That ready on day one thing is deadly too, from mismanaged money to underestimating the small states to sniper fire she set a high standard for herself then failed at it. Won't look good in the ads.

If she was tied or ahead, maybe. Behind, and by more than a small amount? She doesn't have a chance. There's no good reason I can see to take it from Obama in those circumstances and odds are that's where the race will end up.

[cleveramerican]

14. she has to win somewhere she's not expected to.

She has to run the table from now on.
If she does that you'll see acceptance of her as the nominee spread wide and fast.


It boils down to this... she has to cream him in North Carolina, a state he is expected to win.

[mudesi]

15. ZERO! It's already over

Math, people.

Math.

[Colobo]

16. Keep voting.

[backscatter712]

17. 5%.

That's the percent chance (and I'm being generous) of Obama screwing up on the level of eating a baby on live TV.

But I don't see Obama doing anything like that - all he has to do is not lose at this point. Short of a major fuckup on Obama's part, Hillary doesn't stand a chance.

[dailykoff]

19. There's also tragedy.

It's happened. :scared: But even with that I also think 5% covers all the bases.

[Lisa0825]

21. Zero to win it based on current rules, 10% chance she'll be able to

force it somehow with dirty tricks.

[invictus]

24. Hillary has no chance to win and she knows it. She is exercising the "Tonya Harding" option.

At this point in the race, Hillary wants to damage Obama so that he loses in 2008 and Hillary can run again in 2012.