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First off, let me make it clear that I don't hate Senator Clinton. Unlike some, I don't even think she'd be a disaster as president, I just think Obama would be better. Three or four months ago, that would have been taken as read but the campaign has gotten so ugly now that it seems necessary to spell that out. As much as some of her supporters have driven me up the wall (and a certain faction of both Hillary and Obama supporters seem to have lapsed into cult of personality), I still think she'd make a decent president.
Secondly, let's make it clear that HRC can still win the nomination but the odds are very much against her. Essentially, she now has the following chances of winning:
1. She wins collosal majorities in the remaining primaries. Possible but seems unlikely.
2. Obama's campaign self-destructs for some reason. Again, possible but unlikely.
3. She manages to get a massive number of superdelegates to back her. Also unlikely and would be seen, rightly or wrongly, as overturning the will of the voters.And before the Hillbots (i.e. the cult of personality idiots mentioned above) chime in, yes, I know Obama can't win without superdelegates either but superdelegates backing Obama wouldn't be seen as overturning the voter's voice in the same way as them backing HRC would be.
4. The Michigan and Florida primaries are somehow reinstated "as-is". Forget it, that dog won't hunt especially as Obama wasn't even on the ballot in one of those.
So, she could still win but it seems highly unlikely at this point. Slate gave her chances at 12%. Although that article had the unfortunate title "Clinton Deathwatch", the figure seems about right to me.Hillary is not a stupid woman. On the contrary, she is extremely intelligent so she must know this. This begs the question of why, given her brains, Hillary's camapign has been so awful. Now, again for the sake of the Hillbots, yes, much of the media coverage of Hillary's campaign has been tainted by unspoken (or occasionally, outright) sexism but she's also made several mis-steps herself. The failure to release her tax returns, even if they were entirely clean, looks suspicious. The Bosnia story was almost surreal, it was such an obvious lie. Her identification of herself as a victim at certain points of the campaign may or may not have been fair comment but most could see that it was going to backfire and the seeming endorsement of John McCain was just, well, that was so insane that I'm forced to assume it was a mistake. So, Senator Clinton must know that her campaign has been somewhere between lacklustre and woeful and she must know the chances of winning the nomination at this point are slim.
So, why is she still in the race? I can come up with a few explanations:
1) She genuinely believes she can beat the odds and win the nomination. This is the best case scenario. If Hillary genuinely believes she can manage it, she should obviously stay in and more power to her if she can pull it off. If she can manage it at this point without going the Rovian low-road, she could probably start her own religion but coming back from this point would certain be worthy of at least grudging respect (if she can do it without Rovian tactics). I'd question whether her optimism is realistic though.
2) Hillary genuinely believes Obama would be a disaster as president. Less likely but there's still some hope here in that Hillary would be staying in the race for noble reasons; to prevent a presidency which she believes would be a disaster. Whether she's right about that or not is fairly immaterial, the important bit is that she would be trying to aid the nation.
3) Hillary is trying to tear Obama down in the hopes that either McCain will win or Obama will be so weakened that she'd be able to run in 2012. Personally, I think this one is fairly unlikely but for completeness, it should be mentioned. I think it's unlikely because by that point, HRC would be 64 or 65 (I'm not sure when her birthday is, someone correct me?) and would be seen as having lost the current race. Also, charitably, I doubt Hillary is that Machiavellian.
4) Entitlement. Rightly or wrongly, a lot of people have gotten the impression that Hillary believes she is entitled to the presidency; that she came looking for a coronation rather than a race and that, if she can't have the presidency, she's determined to ensure no Dem will (at least, not this time). This is the worst-case scenario and again, I doubt HRC is that unpleasent a person but, rightly or wrongly, that is how her continuing campaign is coming across to many people.
5) Something else. This is where we lump all the truly bizarre theories like some deal with McCain and so on.
In all liklihood, none of those theories is entirely accurate. Anyone who has studied psychology knows that humans rarely have a single reason for doing anything and in truth, Hillary's continued campaigning is probably a mixture of reasons, some of them listed above, some we don't know. One thing we can say for sure is that the continuing and increasing viciousness of the campaign is harming both candidates, their chances of winning the General and the party itself.
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