...in the threads discussing brokered conventions. There is quite a misperception as to the public's "right" to select a party's candidate, but from what I've seen, a party does a lot better when they pay some attention to the voters. Some historian could shed a lot of light on this (and make some money on a book!) researching the evolution of the primary process in America. Here's just a few things I've tripped across here and there:
I'm just starting to read Goodwin's "Team of Rivals." Did you know that not one of the Republican contenders for the party's nomination were even present at the convention? Evidently it would have been "unseemly" for them to attend. Instead, they all had their own little Roves running around in the back rooms making deals.
Some convention surprises: in 1920
Harding became the nominee on the tenth ballot -- he was the original dark horse candidate.
FDR went into the 1932 convention with the most delegates, but didn't become the nominee until the fourth ballot.
In 1952, the party decided in its infinite wisdom to give the nomination to Adlai Stephenson over Kefauver. From
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estes_Kefauver">wikipedia:
In the 1952 Democratic Party presidential primaries, Kefauver received 3.1 million votes, while the eventual 1952 Democratic presidential nominee, Illinois governor Adlai Stevenson, received only 78,000 votes. Yet "the Kefauver campaign for the nomination in 1952 became the classic example of how presidential primary victories do not automatically lead to the nomination itself."<4> So the Democratic Party political bosses blocked Kefauver's presidential nomination in 1952 and, instead, selected Stevenson.Remember President Stephenson? Neither do I...
The more modern primary system came about after the Democratic Convention in 1968, when Humphrey received the nomination over anti-war candidate McCarthy.
Here is a little background on how that one went:
In 1968, after President Lyndon B. Johnson eked out a narrow win over McCarthy in New Hampshire, either McCarthy or the other anti-Vietnam War candidate, Sen. Robert F. Kennedy, won every remaining primary, except for two states, Florida and Ohio, that voted for favorite sons. Yet, when the Democrats met in Chicago in 1968 to nominate a candidate for president, after LBJ had withdrawn in March and RFK was assassinated in June, they chose Hubert H. Humphrey, Johnson's vice president. Humphrey had not entered, let alone won, a single Democratic primary contest.
The reason for Humphrey's convention victory was that a majority of the convention delegates were unelected, and it was these unelected delegates who determined the outcome. The result was a Democratic Party split asunder. This split between anti-Vietnam War Democrats and pro-Vietnam War Humphrey Democrats helped elect the 1968 Republican presidential candidate, Richard Nixon.Democrats initiated the modern primary system after the 1968 disaster, and the Republicans followed suit.
Last two convention battles post 1968 were Ford vs. Reagan in 1976 and Carter vs. Kennedy in 1980. In both those cases -- again -- a battle at the convention resulted in a win for the opposition. Of course, those losses cannot be completely attributed to a convention battle, but the sense that the party wasn't 100% confident in their eventual nominee couldn't have helped.
So to recap: in 150 years we've gone from a system that excluded both candidate and voter from the selection process to a quasi participation by voters today. With all the scrutiny the primary system has come under during this campaign season, I would guess some major changes will once again occur in the way candidates are chosen. But when all is said and done, please note that since FDR, not one of these convention battles resulted in a winning candidacy.