What if Hillary ends up winning the popular vote ??

[kentuck]

You may happily dismiss it and say that it is about delegates. Hillary doesn't have a chance. But when they both go to the Convention and one has the most delegates and one has the popular vote, chances are that the majority of delegates will side with the popular vote. That is why it is important for Obama to also win the popular vote if he is going to be the choice of the Party. Also, he must win the popular vote without factoring in the MI and FL votes. He is campaigning very hard in PA. He understands how important it is to also win the popular vote.

[scheming daemons]

1. If you don't factor in MI and FL, it is impossible for Hillary to catch him....

Also.... the "popular vote" doesn't really properly account for caucuses....so it is misleading.

[kentuck]

3. So...

Politically speaking, Obama would not want MI and FL to factor in the race and Hillary would?

[terrell9584]

18. thats why he has been saying

split the delegates evenly and it is why his legislative supporters have worked to impede revotes. Now, Clinton is no saint on this either, as she's only pushing revotes because she believes she would win, but the fact that she believes this and apparently the Obama camp does too shows you where this thing is going.

And if you just extrapolate the results from Florida, where Obama actually did run ads for several weeks, most of the Edwards vote in the culturally Southern parts of the state will be with Hillary. It has panned out that way in the rest of the region. Just look at the counties where Edwards placed first or second. Most of these counties remain tied to old Florida, Bob Graham and Lawton Chiles Florida. That vote probably goes to Clinton and she probably has a huge advantage if they hold it.

Not knowing Michigan all that well I don't know why they think they'd lose there, unless there are a lot of blue collar voters or a history of racial tension.

But with Florida, it's just not a state made for him demographically. And Edwards did real well in the area surrounding Okechobee.

[RichGirl]

21. But they DO need to be factored in.

I didn't say counted...but, yes, factored in. This is a VERY close race. Ultimately, the WILL OF THE PEOPLE is what counts. If the outcome is so close that decisions need to be made, then the people of Michigan and Florida do need to be considered. The numbers of those people may not be technically counted....but you can't erase them from the minds of those making the decision.

To suggest that the voters of Michigan and Florida, who were the victim of Dean's ill-conceived rule, should be treated as if they didn't exist...is totally ridiculous.

[mkultra]

23. i think your anger about the FL mess is more aptley placed on the shoulders

Of the head of the FL dem party who pushed the resolution to move the date. I think his name is geller or something to that effect.

[RichGirl]

57. I'm not angry...

At any rate...if it was Geller's fault then he should have paid the consequences. Maybe being suspended or kept after school...whatever. The voters and the candidates should not have been punished for something they had no control or say over. The vote is all we, the people, have...it should not have been used as a bargaining tool for Dean to get his way. These are two very big states. The candidates should have been allowed to campaign, the voter's vote...and those who are involved duke it out between themselves. Personally...I think a state should have the right to change the date of their primary if they choose too.

[mkultra]

77. I blame geller then

From my view, it looked more like the FL dem party trying to bully its way into a more important position at the cost of the voters voice. I know that its impossible to control elected officials once they are in power but i cant see blaiming dean for thier mess.


It was thier fault and they should pay the cost. They should pay out of pocket for a new primary.

[ElsewheresDaughter]

34. just because you don't factor in FL and MI doesn't change the FACTS!

[onehandle]

2. Most votes must pick nominee.

That being said, I don't think Hillary has the most in the end.

[elocs]

4. What exactly has Hillary done lately to create a great surge in popular vote?

Obama is still campaigning hard and not slacking off. I think he will win the popular vote too.

[CoffeeCat]

5. What if my cat flies the Space Shuttle to Venus? (nt)

[kentuck]

6. If your cat has the most votes...

Then the delegates may pick your cat as the winner. Wanna change the subject again?

[CoffeeCat]

8. What if George Clooney dates Rainbow Brite? (nt)

[mkultra]

24. yup, Popular equals candidate

no matter which it is.

[NC_Nurse]

7. I doubt that will happen, but we'll see if it does.

[Bensthename]

9. When pigs fly she will win the popular vote.

[whatchamacallit]

10. This pie in the sky hypothetical is for the supers

ask them.

[Freedomofspeech]

11. Do you mean for homecoming queen?

[EmperorHasNoClothes]

12. Can you outline a scenario where that might happen?

i.e. she wins a certain number of votes in each state to make up the current deficit?

[kentuck]

15. How much is she behind right now?

How much behind if you count FL and MI?? It is very possible for her to win the popular vote.

[EmperorHasNoClothes]

22. 827k, or 532k with Florida

204k with Florida & Michigan, although the courts have already ruled that Michigan isn't going to be counted.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_vote_count.html

[kentuck]

29. In a big state like PA...

If she maintains her present lead according to the polls, she could make almost all of that deficit.

[MonkeyFunk]

68. Here's a detailed one:

http://www.usnews.com/blogs/barone/2008/3/28/projection-clinton-wins-popular-vote-obama-wins-delegate-count.html

[GodlessBiker]

13. Does that include the people who voted in caucuses?

[Sensitivity]

14. Popular Vote is MEANINGLESS since some states are PRIMARIES and some CAUCUSES. Voodoo Math??

[kentuck]

17. Meaningless to you but...

probably not so meaningless to the majority of delegates.

[Sulawesi]

25. Screw logic, go with spin. Anybody can see that the popular vote is problematic if some states used

caucuses when others did not.

[BzaDem]

28. Except that caucuses ARE factored in.

All but 4 states actually report vote totals. The ones that don't and just report state delegate totals (Iowa, Washington state, NV, and Maine) are estimated based upon actual voter turnout * percentage of state delegates earned.

[Sensitivity]

35. The fraction of voters who go to CAUCUSES does not compare with PRIMARIES. Olives vs Mellons

[Mezzo]

16. She will win the popular vote, and the delegates had better not usurp the will of the people. nt

[cali]

20. she stands very little chance of doing that

past being prologue and all, hilly just doesn't do blowout wins over Obama. She won't win by enough in PA and she'll lose in NC. She can't make up that ground unless Obama implodes. And the SDs are coming out- for Obama.

[Mezzo]

27. I am not disenfranchising the popular will of Florida.

you are. How sad for you.

[cali]

33. actually, I'm not

how pathetic that you jump to conclusions. Obama still has a slight lead even with FL in the mix. And he'll end up with a popular vote lead, albeit a slim one. You'll just have to suffer. She's done.

[KittyWampus]

19. There is NO SUCH THING as a "popular vote" in a Primary Season including caucuses

are you stupid? Haven't you seen this typed enough times? Aren't you capable of understanding it? Is it too simple? Too complex?

[BzaDem]

30. People saying the same stupid and blatantly wrong thing over and over doesn't change the facts.

All but 4 caucus states actually report vote totals in addition to state delegate totals. The ones that don't and just report state delegate totals (Iowa, Washington state, NV, and Maine) are estimated based upon actual voter turnout * percentage of state delegates earned.

Stop spewing BS please.

[Sensitivity]

40. CAUCUS vote totals DO NOT COMPARE w PRIMARY Vote totals

[Sulawesi]

43. It is not BS to say that you simply do not know how many people would have voted in caucus states if

those states held primaries like the others.

[kentuck]

45. Just as we would not know how many people would have voted for Obama

in MI and FL? You can only count the votes that you have.

[Sulawesi]

And not knowing these things, it becomes meaningless to define the outcome based on popular vote.

[ORDagnabbit]

26. what if pigs fly?

[kentuck]

31. The popular vote will be a big factor...

Perhaps the major factor?

[stahbrett]

32. If Obama has the most pledged delegates and does not get the nomination, all hell will break loose

Seriously... think about what that will be saying to the MOST LOYAL of Democratic voters, the African American voters, who have overwhelmingly voted for Obama - "Gee, thanks for your opinion, but us party insiders are smarter than you and we're going to ignore the results of the system that we have, and give the nomination to Hillary." Guaranteed loss in November, and not just for the presidency - important state-level elections would suffer greatly. Now, contrast that to Obama getting the nomination - he'll have the most pledged delegates (which is what the purpose of all of these elections are, remember), most states, most money, most enthusiastic support, etc. Guaranteed gains for the Democrats, especially compared to the scorched-earth Hillary nomination scenario.

[kentuck]

36. The delegates are representatives of the voters...

simply because they cannot get all the voters in the Convention Hall. Delegates are to represent the will of the people. If the majority of voters pick one candidate and the delegates pick another, then that is when all hell will break loose. Hillary has a right to try and get the popular vote - I agree with Obama.

[stahbrett]

51. She has the right to continue her campaign - I just think it's bad for the party

But Hillary puts herself ahead of the party and the country, in my opinion.

[kentuck]

55. That's your opinion...

Others may disagree with it? By the way, I am an Obama supporter.

[stahbrett]

64. I should have said "in my opinion". Oh wait, I did.

:D

[terrell9584]

70. i live in the south, and no

they wouldn't

The reason being this. The President doesn't decide who the Sheriff of your county is, you know, the one who commands the people who can decide whether to arrest you or not. The President does not decide who your local county judges are, has no influence over your schools or the policies that affect your local communities.

Would there be disappointment in the black community if Hillary wins it while Obama has a delegate lead Yes? Will an explanation be offered? Probably. Will it be accepted? Maybe, Maybe Not

Keep one thing in mind though. North Carolina has seats up for election in the legislature. All congressional seats are open. Some seats that are held by black Congressmen and women are in districts that are not entirely black.

If Black voters don't turn out, black representation at all levels of government immediately decrease. In counties where the racial balance is close, you could suddenly find black Democratic sheriffs or white Democratic sheriffs who are friendly to blacks if just out of necessity suddenly replaced by white Republican sheriffs who know they have one term, who won't give a damn how blacks feel about them, and who might incite passions to use an office they otherwise would have never won as a stepping stone to bigger and better things.

Not turning out over anger at the primary process would be political suicide and absolutely detrimental to the long term interests of blacks in the country.

It's not going to happen. There will be anger, there will be grumbling, but in the end, I just don't see blacks shooting themselves in the foot and losing what influence they have by refusing to vote, because in the end, the sheriff that runs your county will have much more effect on your day to day life than the president of the country

[shraby]

37. If they go for popular votes, a way HAS to be determined

to count the votes in the caucuses. That will still keep Obama ahead.

[BzaDem]

38. The popular vote DOES INCLUDE CAUCUSES.

I am so sick of this myth that it doesn't include caucuses.

All but 4 states actually report vote totals and state delegate totals. The ones that don't and just report state delegate totals (Iowa, Washington state, NV, and Maine) are estimated based upon actual voter turnout * percentage of state delegates earned.

[Sensitivity]

41. Please explain how one can LEGITIMATELY mix CAUCUS and PRIMARY votes when PROCESS IS DIFFERENT

[kentuck]

42. You can only count the votes cast...

whether by caucus or by primary. Obama is fighting to stay in front with the popular vote. He knows how important it is...

[Sulawesi]

44. So Iowa has fewer votes than delaware because Iowa voted by caucus and Delaware didnt?

[kentuck]

49. That's the system Iowa has chosen..

The delegates are chosen by popular vote. The candidate with the most votes at the caucus gets the delegates.

[Sulawesi]

60. just dont call that the popular vote then...this popular vote business is transparently BS

[GOTV]

61. And that's why popular vote is such a flawed measure in the primaries n/t

[BzaDem]

46. Simple. It's called ADDITION.

Here's an example.

BO gets 100,000 votes in a primary and 50,000 in a caucus.

His total vote total is...

100,000
+ 50,000
= 150,000

And the celestial choirs sing. Addition. What a concept. Each voter's vote counting once. 150,000 people come out to support Obama? He gets 150,000 votes.

[Sulawesi]

52. If, for example, NY held a caucus, and Iowa a primary, would that be fair to use raw vote counts?

[BzaDem]

53. Yes. One person one vote. Enough with counting people's votes 25 times as much.

[Sulawesi]

58. caucuses bring fewer people out, how can you count raw votes with states doing different things...

they are meaningless.

[BzaDem]

63. Who's fault is that? Seriously.

We should give caucusgoers a 10-25x advantage because there were other non-caucusgoers who couldn't get off their ass to caucus? People like you are the same people arguing that caucuses are fine, because the single mothers/disabled/night shift workers/etc who can't caucus shouldn't count, because they're too lazy to vote. But when it comes to spinning the math to your advantage, you hail the non-caucusgoers who were too lazy to come out, and say that caucus votes should be weighted 10-25 times as much.

Enough. Enough stupid shit. If a state wants to have a caucus, fine. If a state wants to have a primary, fine. If a state wants to have a circus, fine. But a circusgoer is no more important than a caucusgoer, who is no more important than a primary voter.

[Sulawesi]

71. Noone is spinning the popular vote to favor Obama....

It is the HRC people that are arguing to weigh the popular vote.

"But when it comes to spinning the math to your advantage, you hail the non-caucusgoers who were too lazy to come out" - That is just BS. The rules are the nominee is decided by delegates, and no Obama supporter is arguing otherwise.

[BzaDem]

74. My point exactly.

Delegates weigh caucusgoers up to 25 times more than primary voters. (One WY delegate is about 1000 votes; one TX delegate is about 25,000 votes).

That's why HRC people are arguing for the popular vote. (One caucus vote is one vote. One primary vote is one vote.) Obama people are afraid of this, because it only weighs caucus votes as much as primary votes, and not 25 times as much. Obama supporters think caucus votes should be weighed 25 times as much because caucuses are a "different process" blah blah blah blah.

The nominee is decided by delegates, including superdelegates who can take into account the popular vote.

[kentuck]

39. I think the caucus votes are already figured in the totals??

Is that not correct?

[BzaDem]

48. Thank you. That is correct.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_vote_count.html

[Sulawesi]

47. From RCP..."**(Senator Obama was not on the Michigan Ballot and thus received zero votes. "

[BzaDem]

50. Yup. This is why they have a count that doesn't include MI.

[Sulawesi]

54. the only way she is within striking distance is with MI included.

[BzaDem]

56. Yeah. You're probably right.

I'm not supporting the popular vote because Hillary will win it. (She probably won't.) I'm supporting it because it is the only sensible and democratic thing to do.

The only way she can win it is if she wins by huge margins in PA and Indiana, and keeps NC close. It's not likely, but there's a slim chance.

[kentuck]

59. And that is why many delegates are waiting...

in my opinion. They want to see if Obama has an insurmountable lead after PA and NC. At the present time, he doesn't.

[Barack_America]

62. The popular vote is meaningless.

Considering it doesn't include caucus states. If the party wants to go by the popular vote then they need to schedule new primaries in every state that held a caucus.

Not going to happen.

[BzaDem]

65. The popular vote includes every singe caucus state.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_vote_count.html

[Barack_America]

72. What about the Texas caucus?

:shrug:

[BzaDem]

73. Sure! 1,000,000 * percentage of state delegates.

Just because it's not on some webpage doesn't mean it can't/won't be added in later. Though I don't agree that it should be added in, because it had the same voters as the primary election (i.e. it only represents how many people voted twice). The popular vote by definition measures how many people support each candidate, without weighting votes for any reason (voting twice in a primary/caucus, etc). Votes in other caucus states are fine because there was only a caucus.

[DerekJ]

66. Caucuses ....Caucuses ...Caucuses .Caucuses Caucuses

Caucuses Caucuses Caucuses Caucuses Caucuses Caucuses Caucuses Caucuses Caucuses Caucuses Caucuses

There is no popular vote in many caucuses

There is no popular vote in many caucuses

There is no popular vote in many caucuses

MORONS

[BzaDem]

67. In the 4 caucus states where there is no popular vote, they take turnout * percentage of state dels.

This only advantages Obama, as state dels massivly favor winners over losers (vs. raw vote totals).

[billyoc]

69. She can take her case to the convention floor and try her luck with the super delegates.

I wouldn't blame her one bit for doing so, although I hope it doesn't work out that way.

She can also do that *without* winning the popular vote, she'd just have less of a case.

[Baby Snooks]

80. Sheila Jackson Lee

Sheila Jackson Lee is a supporter of Hillary Clinton and has endorsed her but she has encountered a problem as a superdelegate who has committed to Hillary Clinton despite the fact that the voters in her district overwhelmingly voted for Barack Obama and that is a problem quite a few of the superdelegates may encounter if they are the deciding factor in the selection of the candidate. If the popular vote is for Barack Obama and these superdelegates override the popular vote of their constituents, they may be looking at retirement soon.

The other problem is that many of these supedelegates are African-American and they have said little if anything about the racist and xenophobic tone of the Clinton campaign since the numbers started trending towards Barack Obama instead of Hillary Clinton.

Win or lose, the reality is the Clinton campaign has only further divided a country as well as a party.

[juno jones]

75. If she wins Fair and Square (important qualifiers those)

I will vote for her, and even perhaps remain affiliated with the dem party. If she wins by manipulation, or if the convention is brokered to bring in someone who hasn't been running, I will vote dem one last time, then wash my hands of the party for the most part. After almost 30 years, I am tired of voting for people I do not want nor trust just because they have 'D' next to their names.
I have spent those 30 years trying to walk my talk, buying local, eschewing Wal-mart, living happily without many of the frills the middle-class take for granted. I will get involved with people who reflect my beliefs: local green politics, or the socialists or the wobblies or something, but I will no longer support 'buisness-as-usual'.

[Hamlette]

76. you would ignore all caucus states?

[mdmc]

78. whoever wins the popular vote should win

:kick:

[Growler]

79. too bad that's not how the game is played... n/t

[mdmc]

82. The Supreme Court should decide

:kick:

[Orsino]

81. If she does, it will be becasue she's pulling off a delegate coup, too...

...and that wouldn't be meaningless. She's significantly behind now, though, and momentum may actually be against her. If she can pull off this miracle, the convention brokering will last longer.