Politicalwire.com SurveyUSA Poll: Hillary up in KY +29/Obama up +18 in NC

[Tropics_Dude83]

http://www.politicalwire.com

So we now know that Hillary Clinton will have massive blowouts in Kentucky and West Virginia. I need to see a PR poll to see if she has a similar Kentucky-sized lead there. She'll have 3-4 blowouts compared to 4 blowouts for Obama. Her blowouts will be KY, PR, WV and maybe PA. His will be NC, MT, SD and Oregon.

Indiana and PA are the true battlegrounds with PA having the potential to be a Kentucky.

Question is if she will make it that far.

PA, NC, and Indiana vote first.

March 31, 2008

SurveyUSA: Obama Not Competitive in Kentucky
A new SurveyUSA poll in Kentucky shows Sen. Hillary Clinton crushing Sen. Barack Obama, 58% to 29%, in the closed Democratic primary to be held on May 20.

Key findings: Clinton leads narrowly in greater Louisville, but leads decisively in other parts of the state, including 4:1 in Eastern KY. Obama trails by 20 among men, trails by 37 among women.

PPP Poll: Obama Holds Huge Lead in North Carolina
The latest Public Policy Polling survey in North Carolina finds Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. Hillary Clinton, 54% to 36%.

Obama's greatest strength "is coming from voters who have a history of voting in general elections but not in primaries. With that group he has a 60% to 32% advantage. Bringing more folks into the political process has been one of the central successes of the Obama campaign, and it appears he's doing that in North Carolina."

Key findings: "Obama now leads in every part of the state except the Mountains, which has very few black voters. He has an advantage across every age group, and is up by double digits with both men and women. He is also doing respectable with the white vote, where he has 36%, and has his customary large lead with black voters (81% to 11%)."

[woolldog]

1. Why?

Why do you think Obama is doing so poorly in Kentucky and West Virginia?

I guess these people still believe that Clinton has a chance? Otherwise what sense does it make to vote for her?

[Zynx]

3. Kentucky and West Virginia are essentially clones, except West Virginia is even whiter.

They're southern states without large black populations. It's brutally simple actually.

[woolldog]

11. nt

[MadBadger]

12. You already know the answer. You know the difference between KY and NH.

Geography.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

17. She's out of money

[MadBadger]

4. People in Kentucky and West Virginia would rather vote for a woman than a black man

Plain and Simple.

[Tropics_Dude83]

7. It's all up to PR

If Clinton has a decisive win there, Obama will have an under 100 delegate lead going into the convention. These upcoming WV/PA/KY potential blowouts give her hope.

She'll still be 100 or so pledged delegates behind though if PR is even remotely close. I just used the slate delegate calculator.

[CATagious]

39. The Obama team just arrived in Ky this Saturday....

... I expect to see Hillary's lead go down but she should still win the state. For the record, here in Lexington I've seen many Obama bumper stickers and have only seen a couple Clinton. The ol' reliable bumper sticker poll. ;)

[FARAFIELD]

2. YOUR HEADLINE ABSOLUTELY SUCKS

Obama is winning NC by 18 and Hillary is winning in KY by 21 (within the margain of error in both polls if you had bothered to read them) that is to say that Obama could be winning in NC by more than Hillary is leading in KY. ANyhoo. its nice to know that 21% is absolutely crushing while 18% is merely cruising.

[MadBadger]

9. Wow, You are rude AND Wrong.

hillary is winning KY by 29 points, and both are certainly not within the MOE. Since when does a poll have a 21 point margina of error. Are you insane? Keith number is not MOE.

[oviedodem]

5. KY matters; b/c Clinton is leading BUT you know if Obama was leading in KY

Woah Nelly, all I would be hearing is how we won't win KY.

[BeyondGeography]

6. Wasn't Edwards supposed to endorse Her Majesty today

per you?

[MadBadger]

10. Nooo, it was Hillary, remember?

[BeyondGeography]

14. Oops, my bad...will correct

[KAZ]

16. He's sooo clever.

In his mind.

[rocktivity]

8. Hillary needs AT LEAST 66% of the vote in ALL the remaining states

to have even a chance of getting over with the superdelgates. And with Texas gone, that number's going to creep up a little higher.

:headbang:
rocknation

[Tropics_Dude83]

13. And she has 4 states where she is likely to win 60-40 wins so.... n/t

[MadBadger]

15. Which four are those?

[Tropics_Dude83]

20. WV, KY and either PA or PR

Go to the slate delegate calculator by googling it. Give Clinton 29-30 point victories in KY, WV and a decisive win in PA. The huge Obama delegate lead now vanishes to like 70-80.

Obama needs a 5-6 point loss in PA, maybe 11 at absolute worse, or two 60-40 blowout wins in NC and Indiana to hold onto a +100 delegate lead because Kentucky and WV are coming in absolutely huge for Clinton.

I don't trust the superdelegates with anything less than a 110 Obama pledged delegate lead really. Also these style wins in KY, WV, and/or PA and PR could make the popular vote a dead heat.

Then what?

Then we have Michigan and Florida as well.

[MadBadger]

21. PA will not be a 60-40 split, thats for sure

With that you list three, because you listed PR twice.

[Tropics_Dude83]

23. Well....SurveyUSA had PA

what +19 for Clinton? and PPP had it +26.

[PM7nj]

26. 3 weeks old

That SUSA poll is 3 weeks old, the numbers have changed since then and will continue to for the next 3 weeks. I don't know about PPP, who are they? I think their NC number was really high for Obama.

[MadBadger]

27. have you seen a recent poll?

Those polls were right after Rev Wright. They dont accurately take into affect his race speech and the Bosnia Flap. Since that time, Obama has charged to the top in Rasmussen and Gallup.

[Tropics_Dude83]

29. That's true-I hope you're right

Kos says they are out in the field to release a new PA poll any day now. We'll see.

[MadBadger]

30. I'm predicting a 50.5-49.5 Obama win.

[Upton]

32. Rasmussen poll (3-25) in Pa. had Clinton up 49%-39%

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/pennsylvania/pennsylvania_democratic_presidential_primary

[MadBadger]

22. And North Carolina/Indiana are much much bigger than Kentucky/WV

So any win for her there will mean nothing in terms of delegates and popular vote.

[Tropics_Dude83]

24. Obama will be fine if Indiana is fine

If he wins Indiana or if he loses it by like 52-48, all is well.

If a new poll comes out showing him losing Indiana big, that's bad.

He can handle a big PA loss if he wins both on Super Tuesday III.

[woolldog]

25. On what basis do you say she will win Puerto Rico?

[Tropics_Dude83]

28. Just because the media has it as leaning toward HRC

They are calling it a HRC favored. Also, because of it's heavily hispanic population. Now, it's been said that PR's hispanics aren't like Texas or California ones. So...who knows really.

Also, Chris Bowers at openleft equated PR with American Samoa in terms of who can be expected to win.

[woolldog]

33. Carribean hispanics are not the same as Mexican/Central American

hispanics.

The fact is that Obama, coming from mixed heritage, looks like a lot of puerto ricans. PR aren't going to favor Clinton simply because the media in all it's wisdom has decided to lump them under the label "Hispanic"

[Tropics_Dude83]

36. I actually kind of agree with that

PR isn't like American Samoa at all is it?

[woolldog]

38. I don't know anything about american samoa.

[MattBaggins]

35. What are you doing

Are you giving delegates to Clinton and forgetting to add Obamas?

[ericgtr]

18. OMG! Hillary pounds him 6 ft under with a jack hammer!

It's unlike anything you've ever seen! OMG!

He is absolutely crushed beyond recognition! OMFG!

Meanwhile, back in the real world. Congratulations to Hillary for leading by default in a state that Obama hasn't touched yet, just like all the others he's won.

[TheDonkey]

31. It's over. Back you bags punk!

;)

[McCamy Taylor]

19. The headline is biased . Hillary "crushes". Obama "cruises"? Less subliminals, please.

How stereotypical can we get? What is Hillary crushing? Puppies? Our hopes? Our dreams?

And what is Obama? Mr. Cool?

Language is never neutral, but please, you can do better than that.

[MasonJar]

34. Well, how wonderful that you DUers can read Kentucky minds. I

beg to differ, however, since I am actually in Kentucky. Just because Obama is behind does not mean that Kentuckians are prejudiced against him. I will vote for him if he is the nominee, but I actually prefer Hillary. I like her policies and, yes, I like the fact that she is a woman. The men have done an embarrassingly pathetic job for the most part, so let the ladies have a shot. I like Obama, but I am still wondering why he decided to run in'08; I was summarily surprised. I saw him as the definitive candidate in '16. Thus do not label Hill the spoiler; Obama should have waited until he had considerably more experienced.

[phrigndumass]

37. Kentucky was expected to go 60/40 Clinton, so this is about right

Now if we could get polls for some of the other states, that would be nice, too.

:hi: