DUer challenges Mississippi's count: Media confirms Obama+1 Clinton-1

[grantcart]

Timeline

March 24th thevoiceofreason finds that the State of Mississippi has a made a very small error in adding its delegates and that it is on the threshold of a split (3-1 versus 2-2). Informs the state that they have made a mistake.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5237601

March 31 thevoiceofreason is notified that his numbers are correct

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5330945

This afternoon the Obama campaign is informed

A few hours later it is leaked to the Atlantic

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/03/another_pledged_delegate_for_o.php
Mississippi has recalculated -- Obama's margin of victory is above the 62.5% threshold, and so he adds a delegate and Clinton gets one taken away.

That means that Obama's pledged delegate lead is now at 169


and just now DUer Cheneykillsbambi posts this thread confirming it

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5335866&mesg_id=5335976



How do you like those apples?


Be sure to go to his thread today and tell him how you feel.

edited to correct links

[phrigndumass]

1. WTFG thevoiceofreason!!!

Thanks for posting this, grantcart!

:woohoo:

[Yael]

2. w00t!!! Way to go!

[Kukesa]

3. Thanx, grantcart. I like those apples. K&R! n/t

[grantcart]

6. Thanks but thats a little like thanking me for telling you about watching

another guy hit a grandslam home run.

TVOR hit it way way out on this one.

[grantcart]

4. YES HE DID

[myrna minx]

5. That's fantastic.

:yourock: All of you!

[papau]

19. the Party gives extra delegates to black areas as reward for loyalty - resulting in +1 result

[grantcart]

24. are you nuts are you completely insane

delegates are awarded to any area that has a record for loyal democratic voting


race doesn't have anything to do with it.

[papau]

41. sorry - but the most loyal vore is from black areas - win those and you get extra delegates

[thevoiceofreason]

43. Isn't this the fallicy of the improper predicate?

"Extra" deleagtes are not given to areas based on race. "Extra" delegates are given to areas (and, for that matter, states) with the historic higher democratic turnout. Case in point -- Texas has more electoral college votes than New York. But New York gets more democratic delegates to the national convention. Since we are on Mississippi, let's focus there. The most delegates went to CD 2, which got 7 delegates. All other districts got 5 delegates. But this was not based on race, it was based on democratic turnout. Now, the fact of the matter is that there are more african americans in CD 2 than other districts in Miss., but you say that is the work of . . . exactly who? You know darn good and well who. The republican legislature in Miss. gerrymandered the state, like the legislature did in Texas, to hyperconcentrate these "voting blocks" into areas in order to reduce their influence statewide.

And anyhow, how does this make a hill of beans in this analysis? These were statewide numbers, you big goof!

[TheDoorbellRang]

45. You're confusing Texas with Mississippi

but I'm beginning to expect little else from your posts

[Justitia]

50. Not even TX - that's nuts!!! -eom

[grantcart]

52. the reward is to areas loyal to democrats there are lots of those

university towns also. You are correct that this bias does almost always line up with Obama demographics which is one of the reasons we have been saying for over a month that HRC cannot catch up with Obama. She will win three districts by 55% and not get any extra delegates and Obama will hit a very favorable area and get 75% and picku up 4 extra delegates. That is why Hillary doesn't need to beat Obama she needs landlsides.

[myrna minx]

34. Huh? D'oh. I don't even know how to respond to that. n/t

[John Q. Citizen]

7. Yes we can! That's too cool.

[Bigleaf]

8. Awesome news grantcart! Thanks thevoiceofreason for all your work.

:toast:

[Barack_America]

9. That is SO awesome! But I'd like to point out...

That the "Kristi" who copied and pasted the original post over there wasn't me.

Okay, back to fawning over thevoiceofreason...

awesome...awesome...awesome...awesome....

[Barack_America]

11. If I might add, that was the equivalent of voting for Obama, what? 10,000 times?

Still SO geeked about this!

[grantcart]

12. and taking 10,000 away from Clinton

[Barack_America]

21. Yes! I doubt that anyone else on DU will have such a profound effect on this election.

I mean, I like to think that I'm going to rock Philly with my GOTV efforts, but a net 20,000 (or more!) votes? No way!

[Alhena]

10. TVOR just won the internet

[Tatiana]

14. Epic WIN! n/t

[Cheney Killed Bambi]

15. Thevoiceofreason

:yourock:

[grantcart]

25. good find CKB

[Tatiana]

13. Next time voiceofreason is in Chi-town, drinks on me!

:toast:

Obama supporters are so damn smart.

[Barack_America]

29. Same here in Philly!

Considering it's a net 2 delegates, I'll even throw in dinner, what the hell... ;)

[K Gardner]

16. How do you know the Obama camp was informed this afternoon? (just curious)

[grantcart]

26. I phoned them

it turns out that the disclosure to the Atlantic.com was by Jeff TVOR directly

[thevoiceofreason]

36. I didn't call them. Honest. I would't know how.

I'd like to thank whoever did.

[K Gardner]

48. Good for you ! Thanks :-)

[thevoiceofreason]

17. Thanks everyone. Nerdy lawyers rule! [Just kidding!]

Had even more fun this weekend arguing with Clinton lawyers at credentials. Did pretty well, if I do say so myself! The real heroes were the elderly and disabled who sat and sttod for 10-14 hours at convention to make sure their voice was heard. I love this campaign.

[Alhena]

20. Are you willing to do real-life tv interviews and the like? Get ready for requests

I suspect this will turn into a big story- would you rather be anonymous or are you willing to do interviews and the like?

[thevoiceofreason]

23. Are you kidding? A lawyer turn down an interview?

I doubt it would happen, but that would be fun. My kids (we have 5) would enjoy it! Hell, so would I.

[grantcart]

31. I called the Associated Press and had them go thru the thread

I told them that they could send you a pm by hitting on your env.

[myrna minx]

32. Please keep us posted.

This is fascinating to watch unfold. :hi:

[thevoiceofreason]

33. If you aren't a professional p.r. man, you should be!

Thanks again.

[grantcart]

38. we'll see if anything happens

[TheDoorbellRang]

46. I just can't get over how friggin' AWESOME you are

YOU ROCK, thevoiceofreason!:yourock:

[gateley]

18. Voice Of Reason --

Keep on Nerding! You're walking the talk, and I just whine. Thank you!!! :loveya:

[Oilwellian]

22. Most excellent

Good job voiceofreason! We are VERY proud of you! :toast:

[FlyingSquirrel]

27. Greenpapers.com hasn't changed it yet

Wonder if Demconwatch has (I emailed them about it when his "nerd" thread was posted). I don't see anything on their site about it.

[grantcart]

28. Demcomwatch will wait until AP uses it

I posted there last week and updated them today

They have to guys who are active here Oreo and Matt


They don't post a lot but they read everything about delegates and they have been following this closely.

[thevoiceofreason]

30. What is most amazing is the power of the vote on a small scale

In three districts in Mississippi, the split was determined by 10 votes per precinct or less. Barack won one and lost two (of these incremental movements) by that margin. So never never let a friend, neighbor or family member get away with the old nonsense of "my vote doesn't count."

In my state senate district in Houston, we were a few hundred votes from going 3-1 instead of 2-2. Stay involved.

[grantcart]

35. Now here is the great side of this story

sometime in the next few weeks some poor guy is going to get a phone call


"Bert I am sorry you can't go .. . Don't know what happen but somebody rechecked the numbers and you have to stay home"



And some other person who is an alternate is going to get a call and says "your in baby".


And there are a group of college kids or a group from a church or just a dozen folks that met up at a Obama volunteer center and they went out and worked a couple of weekends and that little effort pulled in just enough extra people to tip the balance.


And then you found it.



And in a few days Mark Penn is going to get a memo from the delegate tracking department and he will say 'what the fuck' and he will not be able to figure out how the Obama campaign has done it again. And of course they had nothing to do with any of this follow up stuff.

And on January 20th the most powerful transfer of power will occur in the most historic and dramatic paradigm seen in world history and a whole bunch of folks whose names were never recorded will have a hand in it.


Ain't life grand.

[thevoiceofreason]

37. Instant kharma, baby!

And the kicker, I go to a UCC church, like the good senator. That's what got me interested in him at first. Granted, ours is in conservative Houston, but we are pretty darn activist for a relatively small church. His speech at the denominational conference last year (which was completely non-political) was one of the few gut-check episodes of my life. Wow.

[grantcart]

39. I went to seminary and spent 20 years in Asia

and have found it very difficult to even go in a Church now they are so conservative. We are involved in a Buddhist temple now

Across the street from my daughter's high school there is UCC church and on their sign board they have something to the effect

that they "Proudly preach the social gospel" and it lifts my whole day to drive by that and know their are some churches that

didn't sell themselves out in the 80s and 90s.

[thevoiceofreason]

40. We are open and affirming and emphasize that.

We laugh and say that UCC can mean United Church of Christ or Unitarians Considering Christ.

Good for you. I admire everyone who embraces a belief system centered upon self-empowerment and peace.

Good for you!

[grantcart]

42. This is something that most people don't understand about the primaries

Because voting is proportionate it is a lot more likely that a few votes will have an impact.

[grantcart]

44. Dailykos has now picked up the story

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/3/31/22053/1834

[Scurrilous]

47. K & R

:thumbsup:

[cyberpj]

49. Good to be proud of DUers innit? K&R nt.

[grantcart]

51. Now reported on MSNBC as reported by this DUer here

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5342373&mesg_id=5342426

[Blue Diadem]

53. That's why I love DU

Thank you thevoiceofreason and thank you grantcart!


:yourock:

[Justitia]

54. Poor 'TheVoiceOfReason' - He is now assigned as Official Math Checker for every contest. Look out

Chuck Todd!

Pretty amazing that just being on your toes w/the details and you've affected a national election!

:yourock:

[fight4my3sons]

55. amazing thevoiceofreason! great job :)

:toast: :yourock:

Thank you from someone who is very math-challenged.

[Barack_America]

56. Just mentioned on MSNBC...on the air!

:woohoo:

[grantcart]

57. thanks

[hogwyld]

58. Kick to the top! n/t

[grantcart]

59. Now quoted by NBC

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
NBC News has adjusted the delegate count in Mississippi, giving one more to Obama and one less to Clinton. The count was 19-14 and now stands at 20-13. The official results were certified in Mississippi and Obama finished with a slightly higher statewide vote result than originally indicated, 62.5% to 37.5%. That result broke a threshold and triggered the extra delegate.

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/04/01/848251.aspx

[grantcart]

60. Demcomwatch now lists AP has changed to Mississippi Obama 20 HRC 13

http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/02/ultimate-delegate-tracker.html

That is considered the official record.

[grantcart]

61. thevoiceofreason continues the epic battle

http://www.msdemocrats.net/Press%20Statements/040208newsrelease.html


JACKSON (Wednesday, April 2, 2008) – Sen. Barack Obama has 19 delegates from Mississippi and Sen. Hillary Clinton has 14 based on official returns from the state’s March 11 presidential primary.

Obama won the primary with 265,502 votes, or 61.2 percent. Clinton placed second with 159,221 votes, or 36.7 percent. The other candidates – Joe Biden, Chris Dodd, John Edwards, Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich and Bill Richardson – split the remaining 2.1 percent.

[thevoiceofreason]

62. The word is getting out.

I am going to try to contact my source at the democratic party of Miss. this afternoon.

[grantcart]

63. I just called and they said they were referring matter to DNC for assistance.

I say we give them 24 hours and then publish their phone number and ask DUers who are so inclined to start calling.

[thevoiceofreason]

65. Good idea

[thevoiceofreason]

66. Who? The State of Mississippi or the Obama campaign?

[grantcart]

69. Mississippi Democrats

[redqueen]

64. Well done, you.

:yourock:

[VolcanoJen]

67. Well, that settles it! Thevoiceofreason deserves to win the dinner with Barack Obama!!!

:bounce: :bounce: :bounce:

WTG thevoiceofreason!!!

[psychmommy]

68. the voice of reason if you're reading this.

all the obama girls think math nerds are SEXY.:loveya:

[thevoiceofreason]

70. Thanks (Darling bride of mine, if you are reading this, I realy don't know her!)

[grantcart]

71. doesn't matter you set up the date and let me be TVOR for a day

[thevoiceofreason]

73. I married the only lawyer who scares me.

:)

[psychmommy]

78. no offense mrs voiceofreason.

she knows what i am talking about!!! hahaha

[thevoiceofreason]

80. Heck - I was flattered.

[psychmommy]

81. good but i don't want any trouble for you.

your wife already knows math nerds are sexy, and i am sure she wants to protect hers.

[atal]

72. Wow thevoiceofreason

:yourock:


K & R :kick:

[thevoiceofreason]

74. I just sent an email to the DNC

Restating our case. Also, I wanted to make triple sure that the Mississippi dems had indeed contacted them. Belt and suspenders, that's my motto!

[grantcart]

75. expect an announcement from TVOR

[blm]

76. WOOHOOOOOOO..........

Way to go........

Proud as heck over here.

[thevoiceofreason]

77. As they said on Poltergeist: "This House Is Clean"

Just got word from Mississippi that all votes will be counted and Pbama gets 20 delegates, Clinton 13.

WooooHooooooo!

[Adelante]

79. BOO-YAH

:kick: