TPM: What is this thing called the credentials committee?

[antigop]

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/03/lowdown_on_credentials_committ.php

So, after talking to the Democratic National Committee about this, here's the deal on how the credentials committee works.

There are a total of 186 members on the credentials committee. Twenty five of them are appointed by DNC chair Howard Dean, and the remainder are alloted by state, in numbers based on each state's population and Democratic performance.

The process that determines how those credential committee members are split between the candidates is a convoluted one. But the gist of it is that each state's delegation to the credentials committee is allocated between the candidates in a number that's proportional to the number of pledged delegates he or she has won in that state.

So Hillary could conceivably get a marginally higher proportion of members on the committee out of bigger states, which she's won more of. But the bottom line is that in the end the breakdown on the committee will hew very closely to the overall breakdown of pledged delegates. So presuming things continue as they have, Hillary will not have a majority, and Obama will have more members on the committee than she does.

Then what happens?

[jwirr]

1. Credential committees handle the seating of delegates at conventions.

Back in the 50s-60s when some southern states sent two sets of delegates reflecting the racial divide at the time it was the job of the credentials committee to decide who the actual delegates were. They will be the poor workers who are going to have to decide how or if to seat the MI FL delegates. I do not envy their job. Damned if you do - damned if you don't.

[4themind]

2. What could really put the party on the spot is a floor vote

From the article:
"At this point, three things can happen.

(1) If a majority of the committee supports the proposal without significant dissent, the delegations are seated according to the proposal's directives.

(2) If a majority of the committee supports the proposal but 20 percent or more dissent, they get to issue a minority report -- and the proposal goes to the full convention for a vote.

(3) If the proposal doesn't get majority support, the delegations aren't seated.

In number (2) there lies the capacity for a minority on the committee to create mischief.

So here's the takeaway: Hillary will not have a majority on the committee; neither will Obama, though he will have more members than she does. But Hilllary's supporters could conceivably force a full convention vote on whatever proposal the committee considers."

Take that in concert with her comments on Fox news (greta):

"HILLARY CLINTON: Well, you know, you can always go to the convention. That is what credential fights are for. You know, let's have the Democratic Party go on record against seating the Michigan and Florida delegations three months before the general election? I don't think that will happen. I think they will be seated. So that is where we are headed if we don't get this worked out."

Personally I hope it doesn't come to that for the sake of the party (and for getting ANY democrat elected period)

[antigop]

3. The article speculates that won't happen...I'm not so sure n/t

[formernaderite]

4. I want to see hillary go by losing

but at this point, she has every reason to stay in. Neither her or Obama will have enough delegates to actually claim the nomination. Personally, I can't stand Hillary....but I completely understand why she would stay in. She has legitimately won most of the large democratic states that always vote dem in the GE. And you never know what will happen in politics.

[KittyWampus]

6. You are wrong. Hillary has NOT won most large, traditionally Democratic states.

[HopeforChange]

5. I was a member of a credentials committee in Texas

Here is what happens here

The committee is balanced by candidate, by the ethnicity of it's constituents and by gender.

Our committee was 50% Clinton and 50% Obama

The committee hears all challenges and settles them

The committee produces the Temporary Roll, the report to the convention and the permanent roll.

The committee also handles the sign in process.

Nothing can happen on the floor after sign in until the credentials committee finishes it's business and produces it's report and the temporary roll.

This explains the complaints about the Clinton campaign filing so many challenges can slow down the process and the people waiting to caucus can get frustrated and leave.

[Bake]

7. A "committee " of 186 members ... bet they get a lot of work done!

Bake

[Mz Pip]

8. Hillary's last best hope

When all else fails, she'll have 186 arms to twist.

[mohc]

9. The problem with the line of thinking

Because of the lower number of members on the standing committee compared to total delegates, winning small states will matter more than winning large states. Many of the states, 21 to be exact, have only a single committee member. In those states the winner gets the single member, or in other words 100% of the membership. Obama is likely to win 15-6 among these 21 members. Meanwhile the "big states" of CA, NJ, NY, OH, and TX have a total of 49 members, but Clinton is only win 1 more member per state (they just all happened to have odd numbers of members) and therefore take these states' members 27-22. The states with only 2 committee spots (11 in all) will basically have no impact, as they will all split 1-1. Of the remaining contests she really only has a chance to net spots in PA, WV, and IN as KY is one of the 2 member states. Realistically this is just another 3 spots. Obama will likely take the members from MT and SD while splitting OR 1-1 even if he wins. The only real question left is NC, where it is conceivable that Obama could win it 3-1, but it will most likely split 2-2. Clinton's best case scenario from this point is to net 1 membership, and she is currently down about 15. In the end Obama will not be able to get the majority of spots because of those 25 DNC members (he would have to be leading by 25). While it would just be conjecture at this point to try and predict what these 25 members will do, it seems likely that they would back the DNC's previous decisions, or at the very least split relatively evenly. In which case Clinton be unable to gain control of the credentials committee even if she sweeps the primaries after PA, there will be fewer spots left than Obama's lead at that point.