Pennsylvania: Clinton 47% Obama 42% Rasmussen Reports

[Life Long Dem]

:bounce:

Tue Apr 1, 9:15 AM ET

rasmussenreports.com

Senator Hillary Clinton's lead in the Pennsylvania Primary is shrinking.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Pennsylvania shows Clinton leading Barack Obama by just five percentage points, 47% to 42%. For Clinton, that five-point edge is down from a ten-point lead a week ago, a thirteen-point lead in mid-March and a fifteen-point advantage in early March.

Support for Clinton slipped from 52% early in March, to 51% in mid-month, 49% a week ago, and 47% today. During that same time frame, support for Obama has increased from 37% to 42%.

Obama recently received a key endorsement from Pennsylvania Senator Bob Casey and has also spent more on television ads than Clinton. If Obama is able to pull off an upset in the Keystone State, it would effectively end the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination. Obama currently leads Clinton nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. However, while an Obama victory could end the nomination battle, Clinton remains ahead in the state and recently demonstrated her ability to finish strong in the Ohio and Texas Primaries.

On the other hand, if Clinton is nominated, just 67% of Obama supporters say they are likely to vote for her against McCain. Twenty-nine percent (29%) are not.

:woohoo:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/rasmussen/20080401/pl_rasmussen/paprimary20080401

[Timefortruth]

1. Rev. Wright, Obama's black, Obama wants to

stop the vote, he's in the gutter, Hillary is a victim.

That ought to get Clinton's numbers up.

[Mooney]

2. But he can't bowl!

How can the superdelegates justify picking someone who hates bowling more than he hates children, white grandmothers and lapel pins?

[Life Long Dem]

4. Talk to the poll!!

[quantass]

3. he's great

[mckeown1128]

5. kick. nt

[meow mix]

6. K&R

nice

[nebula]

7. The Hill's days are numbered

maybe she can run for President of Bosnia.

[DemVet]

8. For the tenth time today....the Rasmussen Poll.

[nebula]

9. They all show a similar trend

Obama is rapidly closing the gap in every poll.

[RiverStone]

16. He may not be in the rear view mirror much longer...

Objects are closer than they appear!:hi:

[Alexander]

19. Shillbots love Rasmussen polls when they show her doing favorably...

How does it feel now that the shoe is on the other foot?

[AllentownJake]

10. This might be a lot to do to Casey

He's a highly respected voice in PA. Some respect him a lot more than Rendell. Rendell only carried 10 counties and the biggest of those counties is pretty heavily favored for Obama. They keep Casey out there and get Tereza out like they did today on the Western side of the state where her foundation has done so much good we might have a fighting chance.

[yellowcanine]

11. I want to believe this but I don't trust Rasmussen. Maybe this is one of the two times a day he is

right?

[PseudoIntellect]

12. With 11% undecided, it sounds good to be within 5, but not TOO promising.

It's still potentially a 58-42 blowout if Obama doesn't get some of those undecideds.

[DrFunkenstein]

13. If Clinton Doesn't Break 60% in Penn, She Is Toast

And seems to be getting awfully warm around here!

[Spiffarino]

14. I don't trust Rasmussen much. SurveyUSA has been better.

Wait a minute...what's this??

Pennsylvania: Obama Making Inroads

SurveyUSA’s second tracking poll on the Democratic primary in Pennsylvania was released today, three weeks from the primary, and the results show Illinois Senator Barack Obama making inroads against Hillary Clinton among several key demographic groups, most notably men.

Clinton led by 19 points in SurveyUSA’s first poll on the race, released three weeks ago; today, she leads Obama by 12. Clinton has lost two points and Obama has gained five since the last poll was conducted, prior to widespread reporting of the comments made in sermons by pastor Jeremiah Wright, and prior to Obama’s March 18 speech on race.

Among men, Clinton had led by 5, today she trails by 7. Among women, Clinton’s support remains essentially unchanged — 30 points ahead of Obama three weeks ago, 28 points today.

Among the youngest voters, Obama has cut Clinton’s lead from 10 points to 3. Among those 35-49, from 7 points to 1. The shift is much less pronounced among older voters; among those 50+, Clinton had led by 26, and now leads by 22.


Ladies and gents, the fat lady is clearing her throat.

[Thepricebreaker]

15. Rassmussen is the most accurate. They nailed 2004 and 2006 elections by less then 1/2 of 1% ...

[Spiffarino]

22. They did then, but this year they're all over the map.

Survey USA has been hitting the mark more than anybody this primary season. But the bigger point is that even SUSA says Obama is surging in PA. That's significant.

[McCamy Taylor]

17. Obama needs a big state win.

[DerekJ]

18. He won Texas

[StevieM]

20. Nope, nobody recognizes that. Historical defininitions of wins and losses contradict that claim

Obama failed to win over the people of Texas, even while outspending Hillary 3 to 1. When we talk about "wins" we are talking about momentum and support.

Obama won a caucus in Texas. He owes his entire lead to domination of caucuses. When people actually vote he doesn't do so well.

Steve

[FatDave]

21. Let us not forget...

that 6% of Hillary's Texas primary votes came from republicans. Why would republicans, who have always (unjustifiably IMO) hated Hillary cross over to vote for her in Texas? Oh yeah, because Limbaugh told them too! So when you're bragging up a Texas "victory" (despite losing delegates there), be sure you thank Rush for the help.

[Spiffarino]

23. Herr Rush's "Chaos" program

A few who followed the Field Marshall Limbaugh's advice called the Drug-addled Gasbag's show later to tell him they were pissed off because they couldn't vote for any Republicans in the primary. Funny.

[StevieM]

26. Obama has gotten more votes from right-wing Republicans then Hillary has (eom)

[FatDave]

27. Ummmm, no.

There are a lot of republicans crossing over to vote for Obama, but I doubt they're, as you say, "right-wing" republicans. I imagine they're pretty moderate to consider voting for a democrat though.

But, ever since Rush started his little Operation Chaos or whatever the fuck he calls it, shitloads of republicans have been voting for Hillary just to subvert our process. In Texas, 6% of her votes came from republicans. Prior to that, she had gotten almost no support from republicans.

It's really pretty simple. Figure it out.

[Erin Elizabeth]

31. Link? Proof? Support?

[Spiffarino]

25. 99 delegates to 95 is a primary win

Slice it any way you like, Obama got the delegates, and delegates vote for the nominee. Hillary said as much early in the primaries when it was working to her advantage. She's only changed her tune recently as she started to bleed delegates. And now that she's behind in the popular vote, she's pumping up the importance of the supers.

[Alexander]

28. Actually Obama won most primaries, too. Your talking points don't work.

He won more primaries and more caucuses.

[PseudoIntellect]

29. So essentially, math doesn't matter.

Obama narrowed the lead from 15% in Texas to 3.5%. Still a primary loss, and a Texas win, but he did make heavy improvements there. It's not like he dropped off while spending a lot.

[Erin Elizabeth]

30. Hi!

People VOTE in caucuses, too.

So yeah, we voted.

He got 99 delegates from Texas, Hillary got 94. That's called winning the state. The whole shebang. I'm sorry you guys are having a hard time dealing with it, but it's the truth.

And it's actually quite amazing that he got five more delegates than her overall. You see when you win the primary vote during the day, you get about 2/3 of the delegates. The caucuses only get you the other 1/3.

So he was at a slight disadvantage going into the caucuses, but Obama supporters showed up in such huge numbers to the caucuses (and Clinton supporters failed to show up in huge numbers), that he overcame her primary advantage AND went right past her in number of delegates for the whole state.

For someone who talked about how she had the Hispanic vote in the bag, I would have expected her to blow the lid off a state like Texas, with the second largest Hispanic population in the nation.

But she didn't. She lost it.

[StevieM]

32. You can want that to be true. But it still isn't. Hillary won Texas and even the pro-Obama media

recognizes that. Wins and losses talk about momentum and the support of people of a state. Delegates are a seperate party matter. Hillary won Texas, just like she won Nevada. In 1992 Bill Clinton suffered a humiliating loss in Connecticut, while picking up delegates. His loss led off the national news and led to questions about his chances of winning the nomination. Obama has invented a brand new standard, without precedent in American history.

But Obama does indeed owe his entire success to undemocratic caucuses that do not reflect the sentiments of the people. Caucuses disenfrachise a lot of voters, like the elderly, who find it difficult to attend. That's why he wants this over now, because at the end of the day she will have more votes and will have won the elctoral college map and will have won the elected delgates (from states that held actual elections). It will be transparently obvious that all he ever did was win big in caucuses, due to his big money, big organization and strength amongst upper-income voters.

Steve

[Erin Elizabeth]

33. I saw lots of elderly people at my caucus

and at my district convention.

Clinton people really have to twist themselves into pretzels to justify her loss in Texas, don't they? They've got to practically re-define every term and every measure just to make it seem like the truth.

[StevieM]

34. Even the pro-Obama media recognizes Clinton as the winner of Texas. And so does precedent (eom)

[ORDem]

24. And three weeks to go ... once again the trend is his friend. n/t

:dem: