It's the Math

[H2O Man]

"We know the battle ahead will be long. But always remember that no matter what obstacles stand in our way, nothing can stand in the way of the power of millions of voices calling for change." – Senator Barack Obama

I got a nice envelop full of information from the Obama campaign today. I want to share some of the high-lights with other Obama supporters here on DU.

"When you realize that Barack Obama is still going to win some primaries between March 4th and the end of the primary season, then you look at the places that she’s planning on winning, she’s got to win big. She’s got to win with over 60% in all of these remaining races." – Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

It’s the math that counts: fund-raising, delegates, states won, and popular vote. Things are going well for the Obama campaign. We are winning. But there is still a lot of work to be done.

"Hillary Rodham Clinton faces an uphill battle to even come close to Obama. With less than 600 delegates at stake in the remaining contests, it’s next to impossible for Clinton to win by the margins necessary to close the gap." – William Galston, Brookings Institute fellow

We have the Pennsylvania contest on April 22nd; Indiana and North Carolina on May 6th; West Virginia on May 13th; Kentucky and Oregon on May 20th; Puerto Rico on June 1st; and Montana and South Dakota on June 3rd.

There have been reports of party leaders discussing ways to end the negative energy that is being injected into the democratic primary. I’m confident that there is a lot going on behind the scenes.

"Here’s how it breaks down: As of this writing, Barack has won 1,418 pledged delegates to Senator Clinton’s 1,251. Our lead stands at 167 delegates, with only 566 still up for grabs. In order to catch us, Senator Clinton doesn’t just have to win, she has to win double-digit blowouts in every remaining state.

"Barack has now won in big states and small states, red states and blue states, and states in every part of the country. He has won 30 contests to Senator Clinton’s 14. He has won more primaries and more caucuses. He has won the popular vote by almost 700,000 more votes.

"Barack has, in short, won by every measure there is – including the one that counts most: pledged delegates, who reflect the will of the American people." – David Plouffe, Campaign Manager

I heard today that democrats have registered a huge number of new voters in Pennsylvania. We need to keep registering more, in all of our communities. The Obama campaign has been doing well in fund-raising, which is obviously very important. We need to continue to make small contributions to the Obama campaign. My daughters are baby-sitting, collecting cans and bottles, and doing chores at home to raise money to contribute.

We also need to engage in an on-going letter-to-the-editor campaign. We need to keep the positive message out there. When the Obama message is presented in a positive way, we win. We want a wide audience, including even the "super delegates," to be reading the uplifting, positive message of the Barack Obama campaign.

Thank you to all the DUers who are participating in the Obama campaign.

[myrna minx]

1. How sweet of your daughters to give what they can.

It's so inspiring to see how this campaign has encouraged young people into the democratic process. Thanks for posting.

[H2O Man]

5. It's fun for me

to see my children all participating in the campaign. And on some weekends, there are a lot of their friends here, too. I think that Senator Obama has caught their attention, and that his campaign is making them feel that they can have a say in the future of this country.

[berni_mccoy]

2. Nominated.

[H2O Man]

6. Thank you. n/t

[Awsi Dooger]

3. It's also the math, regarding statewide demographics

You had a thread regarding PA the other day, hinting it was potentially in play and you were keeping an eye on it.

While nothing is absolute, the demographic breakdown favors Hillary by substantial margin, given equal or near equal enthusiasm/participation from the base of both camps.

We can't be intent on embracing small mathematical edges in the overall primary battle without acknowledging a more severe deficit in a specific state. And PA has a more decided pro-Hillary slant, percentage wise, than any of the national breakdowns you gave in favor of Obama.

But, as always, if Obama speculators want to pretend otherwise, please hustle to Intrade and knock the PA price down, enabling more glorified theft like CA and OH.

[Coexist]

4. its fun!

[H2O Man]

8. It is fun.

It's not "the politics of joy" that Hubert Humphrey spoke of 40 years ago, when he clung too long to the LBJ policy in Vietnam. And it's not the politics of denial, like the McCain campaign. Instead, it's the politics of reclaiming our Constitutional democracy, and a campaign of empowerment. And that is fun.

[Life Long Dem]

7. Rocky wasn't good in math and Hillary said she is Rocky!

:eyes:

[H2O Man]

9. As a retired

amateur boxer, who trained and managed amateur and professional fighters, I can honestly say that I have never watched a whole "Rocky" movie. The Obama campaign is about dealing with the real life issues that we are confronted with. We can safely leave fantasy and fiction for the others.

[antigop]

10. K&r. My local paper didn't print my ltte. Guess I'll have to try again. n/t

[H2O Man]

12. Sometimes they

get printed, sometimes not. It's good that you wrote one (or more); I hope that you keep at it!

[antigop]

13. Kind of weird on this one...they have printed most of my other ones

I just thought it kind of strange that it wasn't printed when almost all of the others were.

I'll just rework it and try again.

Anyway, great post.

Thanks.

[H2O Man]

16. It's often confusing

trying to figure out what LTTE will be printed, and which ones won't. There are a total of six newspapers, and another six progressive and/or college papers and newsletters that I contribute to. I've been doing LTTEs (including "campaigns") for decades. Some of the best things I've wrote have been rejected by one paper, and end up in another.

[NanceGreggs]

11. Thanks, H2O Man!

A nice summary of where we stand - and it's great news all around!

:kick: & REC'D!

[H2O Man]

14. Thank you!

"We need a Democratic candidate who will present the starkest contrast to the failed policies of the past. We need a Democratic candidate who can unite -- and inspire -- our country. We need a Democratic candidate who's won the overwhelming support of the American people in primaries and caucuses." --David Plouffe, Campaign Manager

Great news all around -- Change we can believe in!

[Ichingcarpenter]

15. Do The Math

[H2O Man]

18. Great photo!

Thank you.

[berni_mccoy]

21. Bwahaha! I gotta steal that photo now too! You've got some great ones!

[phrigndumass]

17. Kicked and rec'd ... (It's also the money)

Thanks to your daughters! That's inspiring.

:hi:

[H2O Man]

19. Money counts!

Having a bigger bank account is an advantage in this type of contest.

[phrigndumass]

31. Someone said we have "Weapons of Math Instruction"

I believe it was happygoluckytoyou ...

:spray:

[Cha]

20. And thank you, H20 Man for

writing such a concise, and beautifully encouraging, piece on DU.

[H2O Man]

23. DU has the ability

to be a positive, up-beat, and informative place to discuss progressive and liberal democratic issues. We are in the final rounds of a long primary contest, and things are looking really good for our guy. As long as the primry continues, we need to stay focused on it, but our focus is going to be positive, up-beat, and informative. We'll keep pounding that message home, until we've been announced the winner of the primary. Then it's on to the main event.

[quantass]

22. k$r

[H2O Man]

27. Thanks n/t

[Scurrilous]

24. K & R

:thumbsup:

[H2O Man]

28. Thank you

[walldude]

25. But he hates Babies! And he's a shitty bowler!

How can I vote for a guy who hates babies and can't bowl...





Sorry man, been on here too much the last two days, I just don't have that much humor or good sarcasm left..


Shitty Bowlers for Obama!!

[H2O Man]

26. At least no one has

resorted to some of the old "bowling balls & babies" jokes that were popular in 6th grade. Perhaps after the primary is over some bad jokes will have a more meaningful place on GD-P. (Or, even a more meaningless place.)

[Zhade]

30. Please, PLEASE tell me there wasn't anyone who actually held his BOWLING against him!

That's just asinine!

[Zhade]

29. Indeed, and the math shows he's essentially won.

It stuns me that anyone (here, anyway, I can understand ignorance elsewhere) still supports clinton after her bald-faced lies about Tuzla.

You support for Obama is giving me considerable reason to think about backing him seriously (currently, it's more that I oppose proven liars like clinton).

[H2O Man]

35. Obama offers

the best chance for a democratic victory in November. That includes both for the White House, and in the manner of "coat tails" in congressional elections. This would not represent the end of our problems, but rather, the first step in being able to make some changes in direction in Washington, DC. In terms of the federal court appointments (not just the US Supreme Court, though that is of great importance), we cannot afford to lose.

[mod mom]

32. H2O Man, You might be interested in this project "Postcards for Pennsylvania"

It was volunteer initiated, and I believe will touch voters:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5343291&mesg_id=5343291

Thank your daughters! you should be proud. :hi:

rec'd

[H2O Man]

34. "Postcards for Pennsylvania"

Very good! I am interested. Thank you for that.

[madrchsod]

33. if pa gets any closer it`s going to be over.

even if she "wins" pa the next states do not look good for her...but it`s on to the convention...

[H2O Man]

36. Pennsylvania

is one of the last rounds in this heavyweight fight. Obama came into the match as the underdog. But he has built up a significant lead in the early rounds. Then he added to it in the middle rounds.

He doesn't have to win the PA round -- just not make any big mistakes. If he makes it close, it's viewed as a victory for him.

I think that it is going to be Obama going on to the title fight in the fall.

[mmonk]

37. Thanks.

We'll all pitch in. It's time the people choose a candidate and work for it.

[H2O Man]

38. It's that time.

We need to be thinking of the White House and Congress.

[mmonk]

40. Correct. He will have coat tails.

Yes we can.http://www.dipdive.com/dip-politics/ywc/

[AZBlue]

39. k/r

[stop the bleeding]

41. Math is one thing but counting is another

The math is forgone conclusion for anyone that has paid 2 minutes of attention to this primary.

This is what I am keeping the back of my mind while "taking in this moment" for American history. People are really counting on a new direction in America. This collective hope/need/thirst for change in America is special for lack of a better word, and we have the Obama campaign to thank for igniting/channeling this.

K&R

:beer: