Obama's Appalachia Predicament

[Khaotic]

Take a good look at that map. It contains a geographic area known as Appalachia. An area that has already held some votes; votes that have not gone Obama's way. Obama may have won some of those states, but inside those states and inside those regions which lie within Appalachia ... he has lost big.

A very stark look at this uphill battle from a pro-Obama site. Reality is reality, no matter how you slice it.

dailykos, April 1, 2008
PA, NC and KY Primary Polls, and the Question of Appalachia
by DHinMI
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/4/1/113733/3296/929/488242

Pennsylvania
Rasmussen. 3/31. Likely voters. MoE 4% (3/24 results)

Clinton 47 (49)
Obama 42 (39)

SurveyUSA. 4/1. Likely voters. MoE 4% (3/11 results)

Clinton 53 (55)
Obama 41 (36)

North Carolina

Public Policy Polling (pdf). 3/31. Likely voters. MoE 3.8% (3/25 results)

Obama 54 (55)
Clinton 36 (34)

Kentucky

SurveyUSA. 3/31. Likely voters. MoE 4%

Clinton 58
Obama 29

The movement in PA is slow but steady. A month ago I suggested paths to the nomination for both Obama and Clinton. For Obama, I suggested he ratchet down expectations for PA so as not to allow Clinton much credit if she wins it. The odds are still good that Clinton will win PA, but if he can keep her win below 10 points, Obama will have succeeded in denying her a huge bump. It will be devastating to Clinton if he can narrow the win to below 5 points or even win outright.

A question will be what happens in Appalachia. The afternoon of the Potomac primary I suggested keeping an eye on the results in the mountains of Virginia and Maryland as an indication of what might happen in later contests such as OH, KY, WV and PA. The results for Obama were dreadful. Despite his huge statewide win, in the Appalachian counties Clinton pulled as much as 80% of the vote. The same thing happened in Ohio, where Clinton racked up huge margins in Southeastern Ohio. Obama has lost to Clinton in every part of Appalachia that's voted, including northwestern Georgia, northern Alabama, northeastern Mississippi and eastern Tennessee.

The polling shows that Obama will continue to have a difficult time getting votes in Appalachia. SUSA reports that in eastern Kentucky Clinton has a 4-1 edge.

In PA, the questions will be whether Obama can cut the margins in the rural center of the state, whether he can do better in the Pittsburgh region than he did in nearby Youngstown Ohio region, and whether he can win big in the Philadelphia suburbs. If Clinton performs well in the Southeastern PA, she should win. If Obama performs much better in the Appalachian parts of PA--which are much more ethnically and religiously diverse than the rest of Appalachia--he should win.

And Obama fans, don't count on him winning West Virginia.

===========================

I hate to say it, but things might be pretty bleak for Obama in Appalachia. I think he'll win in N.C., but any other remaining states left in Appalachia territory will probably go Clinton.

This gives some background to why Obama is having such a hard time in those areas. Kind of like the Dixicrat areas in the South.

It's too bad a person can actually determine that kind of lean based on geographic regions, but more often than not it's true.

If Obama pulls out 60+ delegates from PA he'll be doing good and has cause to celebrate.

I hope he does it ... GOBAMA!!!

[leftofcool]

1. An uphill battle is an understatement

He may win NC in the primary but he will not win it in the GE.

[tekisui]

2. And neither would Hillary.

[Khaotic]

6. maybe

but he has a better chance than Hillary has.

See: http://www.electoral-vote.com/

However, you're probably right. It will more than likely stay red.

There are few states that the Democratic Party are ensured to win with either Obama or Hillary in Appalachia.

Obama's strenghs lie outside of Appalachia.

With Obama there are more than 140 EVs that are barely GOP that could go Democratic. Some haven't been blue for decades, but it could happen under Obama.

With Clinton the equations stay the same. We essentially throw out Dean's 50-state strategy and pick back up w/ the failed strategy that lost us the last two elections.

[bowens43]

9. He certainly has better chance then hillary

[goldcanyonaz]

12. They both have NO chance of winning N.C. in the GE.

The last time it went blue was in 76 with Carter and he was from the South.

[democrattotheend]

3. I wonder why he has so much trouble in the Appalachia region in particular

I guess it has a lot of southern whites without a large African American population. But I still think he can make Virginia competitive in the GE...he KICKED ASS here during the primary, and many pundits say Virginia is "itching to turn blue".

[leftofcool]

4. The only blue part of VA is northern VA

The rest is as red as you can get.

[democrattotheend]

10. I know

But the good news is, Northern Virginia is growing, and the exurbs are becoming more Democratic as they grow. I have hopes that we can at least put the state in play if not win it in 2008.

[Leopolds Ghost]

13. Totally Incorrect

Southside Virginia is heavily Black and democratic.

The Hampton Roads area is a mixture of right-wing military
and ethnically diverse working class towns where Kerry was competitive.

Richmond and Charlottesville and Roanoke are Democratic cities!

Southwest Virginia, the Appalachian part of the state, is a mix of Baptist strongholds (right wing) and mining counties (which always vote yellow dog Democrat.) These are the ones Obama will lose due to Appalachian "ethnic" xenophobia.

The Blue parts of Virginia are:

Northern Virginia

Parts of Hampton Roads (Norfolk Shipyards, etc.)

Richmond (city only)

Southside Virginia

Roanoke and other independent townships

Charlottesville-Harrisonburg (Blue Ridge - horse country exurban Democrats and college towns)

Southwest (Appalachian) Virginia -- Blue Dog Democrats

The Red parts of Virginia are:

Shenandoah

Tidewater

Virginia Beach

The major Richmond suburbs

Central and south-central (Piedmont) rural whites

The Northern Virginia exurbs (ex-Marines, people who used to live in Fairfax County and voted for Nixon)

[cali]

16. Virginia has been trending purple

and with Mark Warner on the ballot, if Obama's the nominee, most pundits agree it's in play.

[featherman]

17. Actually the Newport News/Norfolk area is pretty blue

[DemVet]

26. But....

....will have trouble going blue with the military vote and "McCain the War Hero."


BTW - I AM NOT making fun of McCain's military service. I have the utmost respect for him in this particular area. Not his politics, though.

[kwenu]

5. Since there are people in Appalachia that have never even seen a Black person in-person, they might

be intrigued. Either way, Hillary's going down in PA. If she loses it, she may not be seen in public for months.

[Khaotic]

7. Maybe ...

She'll even grow a beard.

:-)

Or maybe she'll go to South Park and become a permanent resident of Imaginationland!

[democrattotheend]

11. She's not going to lose PA. But if she does, it's over.

Even her campaign acknowledges that.

[BlooInBloo]

33. ex contradictione sequitur quodlibet

[Kokonoe]

8. How come your map does not show any Appalachian mountain tops? OEM

[Khaotic]

14. Well ...

while the map doesn't show any mountain tops. I did a google image search on Appalachia and found a photo of a guy who looks like he has some mountainous region behind him.

He might be a common Appalachian region voter.

http://www.photowords.com/Photos/Appalachia,%208.jpg

[Leopolds Ghost]

19. Because Hillary wants to remove them. nt

[Khaotic]

21. strip mining and mountaintop removal

If Obama wants any chance at all in West Virginia and to lose by a little less in Kentucky, he NEEDS to emphasize his stance against strip mining and mountaintop removal.

There's a Applalachian newspaper that looks like it's leaning toward Obama because of his stance against strip mining and mountaintop removal.

See: http://www.appvoices.org/index.php?/frontporch/blogposts/obama_says_that_we_must_find_a_way_around_mtr/

Looks like a voice of progressive reason in the region.

[Cessna Invesco Palin]

15. Appalachia will not vote for a black man. Period.

Hate to break it to you, but that's the way it is.

[dchill]

18. Neither will you, I'm guessing?

:shrug:

[Cessna Invesco Palin]

20. Congratulations.

You're the first person I've ever put on my ignore list in GD-P. Jerk.

[dchill]

22. Sensitive much?

[Guy Whitey Corngood]

23. I seriously doubt that's what he meant. n/t

[Leopolds Ghost]

25. Put it this way... most of the black folks I know DON'T STOP on I-59/I-81 thru Cumberland Gap

They drive straight between Birmingham and Roanoke non-stop.

I once saw a burning tractor trailer on one lonely stretch of that highway somewhere between Chattanooga and Bristol.

[BlooInBloo]

24. There's no predicament. Racist hicks aren't gonna vote for him no matter what....

... Fuck em.

You can tell from stories about Obama coming to besmirch our clean white women:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/01/obama-gets-very-flirtati_n_94477.html

[Khaotic]

27. I think part of Obama's appeal ...

has been his ability to at least attempt to appeal to everyone.

He embraces the 50 state strategy, not the "fuck 'em" strategy.

I don't know how well that kind of a campaign poster would go over w/ voters regardless of who the "fuck 'em" was directed toward.

Even racist Appalachian hicks.

[BlooInBloo]

28. Good thing I never suggested Obama say what I said, else your comment would be relevant.

[Khaotic]

29. True

I know you're not being literal.

From a personal level though, I know what you mean by the fuck 'em comment.

It may very well be that the Obama campaign has to make inroads where it can, and chalk up Appalachia as an accepted loss.

If he wins the White House then he can make better inroads through his performance as an excellent President. If he can do that, we'll see people doing a lot of soul searching and we might see places like Appalachia go blue ...

someday.

[BlooInBloo]

30. Hicks never engage in soul searching. That's why they're unchanged for 100s of years. Fuck em.

[Khaotic]

31. Okay BlooInBloo

Point taken.

But even here in Iowa (a state name some insist stands for Idiots Out Walking Around) there is an increasing population of progressives.

Here in Iowa according to polls, Obama wins huge over McSame, while Clinton loses big.

It's getting pretty polarized, with evangelicals controlling the Rethuglicans and Progressives taking over the Democrats.

Here in Scott County I've seen Progressives having huge inroads and evangelicals going into seclusion. Their time has come and gone here ... at least for now.

It starts with the youth, and they exist everywhere.

There's hope.

[BlooInBloo]

32. Sure there's hope. Just not in Appalachia.... Might be the most hopeless part of the country....

... comparable with inner Detroit or southside of Chitown.

Half my family is from Indianhead PA, btw. I know these people. They fucking suck.