Primary math 101, minus spin

[ProSense]

Current delegate counts per CNN:

Obama 1,626 Hillary 1,486

Go here.

Make the following adjustments:

• Pennsylvania: Hillary 58% Obama 42%
  
  
• Indiana: Hillary 55% Obama 45%
  
  
• West Virginia: Hillary 58% Obama 42%
  
  
• Oregon: Hillary 45% Obama 55%
  
  
• South Dakota: Hillary 45% Obama 55%
  
  
• Guam: Hillary 50% Obama 50%
  
  
• North Carolina: Obama 55% Hillary 45%
  
  
• Kentucky: Hillary 58% Obama 42%
  
  
• Montana: Hillary 45% Obama 55%
  
  
• Puerto Rico: Hillary 63% Obama 37%

This best case scenario for Hillary is better than this much hyped one.

See Hillary's problem? The reality is that Hillary may not hit the highs above (PA by 16 pts, KY by 16 pts, PR by 26 pt) and Obama may achieve a higher margin in NC.

[rocktivity]

1. DING DING DING! ProSense, you're our grand prize winner!

If Hillary wants to get close enough to Obama kick it with the superdelegates, she has to pull in a minimum of 66% of the vote--and in ALL TEN of these contests. Don't believe the hype about her needing only a handful of "blowout" victories for a "big comeback"--it's MSM soap opera.

:headbang:
rocknation

[ProSense]

2. I thought there were more math buffs around here. n/t

[FlyingSquirrel]

5. *sigh* ok I'll do it

I'll be even more generous to Hillary than you were. I'll give her the very best (fairly recent) polling numbers out there for all the remaining states - or average of polls if that produces a better result for her. States that have not been polled recently, I'll give her an average of all the rest (best possible again). I'll also give her 60% of the Undecided vote.

State ........... C% ........ O% ........ U% ..... Polling:

Pennsylvania .... 56.0 ...... 30.0 ...... 14.0 ... PPP (3/15-3/16)
Indiana ........... 52.0 ....... 43.0 ...... 5.0 ... SurveyUSA (3/29-3/31)
North Carolina .. 43.0 ...... 44.0 ...... 13.0 ... PPP (3/17)
West Virginia ... 55.0 ...... 27.0 ...... 18.0 ... Rasmussen (3/13)
Kentucky ........ 58.0 ...... 29.0 ...... 13.0 ... SurveyUSA (3/28-3/30)
Oregon ........... 30.5 ...... 19.5 ...... 50.0 ... Pollster.com average (4/1)
Puerto Rico ...... 49.0 ...... 32.0 ...... 19.0 ... Average
Montana .......... 49.0 ...... 32.0 ...... 19.0 ... Average
South Dakota .... 49.0 ...... 32.0 ...... 19.0 ... Average

Giving 60% of Undecideds to Clinton, we would have the following delegate totals:

PA: Clinton 101, Obama 57 ... (64.0% - 36.0%)
IN: Clinton 39, Obama 33 ... (54.5% - 45.5%)
NC: Clinton 57, Obama 58 ... (49.5% - 50.5%)
WV: Clinton 18, Obama 10 ... (64.0% - 36.0%)
KY: Clinton 33, Obama 18 ... (64.5% - 35.5%)
OR: Clinton 29, Obama 23 ... (55.5% - 44.5%)
PR: Clinton 32, Obama 23 ... (58.5% - 41.5%)
MT: Clinton 9, Obama 7 ... (58.5% - 41.5%)
SD: Clinton 9, Obama 6 ... (58.5% - 41.5%)
GU: Clinton 2, Obama 2 ... (50.0% - 50.0%)

Totals: Clinton 329, Obama 237

--------

Current: Clinton 1250, Obama 1414

Final: Clinton 1579, Obama 1651

Supers: Clinton 246, Obama 214

--------

Grand Total: Clinton 1825, Obama 1865

--------

Remaining supers needed to clinch nomination: (out of 333 possible)

Clinton 199 (59.8%), Obama 159 (47.7%)

--------

Adding in MI and FL (with MI Uncommitted going to Obama):

Grand Total: Clinton 2018, Obama 1992

--------

Remaining supers needed to clinch nomination with MI/FL: (out of 368 possible)

Clinton 190 (51.6%), Obama 216 (58.7%)

--------

Now THAT is the end-all-be-all of rosy scenarios for Hillary.

Happy?

:silly:

[ProSense]

6. Well, at least this proves that Hillary is

wishing for a miracle.

[FlyingSquirrel]

8. True... if all the above came true including MI/FL being counted as-is

THEN and ONLY THEN could I see her getting the nomination, and she'd still have to get over 50% of the remaining Supers - which I could see possibly happening under that rosiest of scenarios.

But we all know it's not gonna be nearly that close.

[Alter Ego]

26. Exactly. It's like a supercollider creating a black hole that sucks up

all existence--it COULD happen, but the number of things that would have to happen to MAKE it happen are just so improbable that she really can't win by any conventional means.

[FlyingSquirrel]

15. Oops, I had superdelegates switched. Check my post again, it's quite a bit closer

after the edit.

Her rosiest scenario (including MI/FL) now allows her to win the pledged delegate race and then only need 51.6% of the remaining superdelegates to clinch the nomination.

[ProSense]

16. Check your numbers, the delegates needed changes if you add MI and FL

Summary of tables (recalculated with new delegate counts) show Obama's delegate lead in every scenario (slightly different than CNN's numbers):

Total Delegates: 4048 ** W/o FL & MI - Current Status ** Needed: 2024.5
Pledged Delegates Obama 1415, Clinton 1245
Superdelegates Obama 213, Clinton 248

Total Delegates: 4415 ** With FL & MI included - Results upheld** Needed: 2208
Pledged Delegates Obama 1482, Clinton 1423
Superdelegates Obama 218, Clinton 263

Total Delegates:4415 ** With FL & MI (Obama gets MI 55) ** Needed: 2208
Pledged Delegates Obama 1537, Clinton 1423
Superdelegates Obama 218, Clinton 263

Total Delegates: 4415 ** With MI & FL 50/50 ** Needed: 2208
Pledged Delegates Obama 1565, Clinton 1395
Superdelegates Obama 218, Clinton 263

Total Delegates: 4309.5 ** MI 50/50 FL 1/2 Vote ** Needed: 2155
Pledged Delegates Obama 1415, Clinton 1245
Superdelegates Obama 213, Clinton 248

Total Delegates: 4415 ** FL & MI will Re-Vote ** Needed: 2208
Pledged Delegates Obama 1415, Clinton 1245
Superdelegates Obama 218, Clinton 263

Source: Total and needed delegates

[FlyingSquirrel]

19. Rechecked

I was using the third scenario in your above post, which gives Obama 1537 vs Clinton 1423 and puts superdelegates at 218-263.

Obama 1755, Clinton 1686

Then add the rosy scenario numbers,

Obama 237, Clinton 329

and get final results:

Obama 1992, Clinton 2015

Which is close to my final rosy scenario prediction of 1992 to 2018.

-----

So the only two scenarios in your above post that would give Clinton a PD lead would be "Results upheld" and "Obama gets MI 55", but only if she also wins all remaining states by the rosy scenario in my post (329 delegates to 237). Obviously there's no way that Obama will get none of the MI uncommitteds, so discarding that possibility just leaves "Obama gets MI 55" as the only reasonable scenario where Clinton has a remote possibility of coming out ahead in PD's.

-----
My rosy scenario gave Clinton 58.1% of the remaining delegates.

If Clinton wins 56.2% of the remaining delegates, (318 delegates to 248), then in the "Obama gets MI 55" scenario she would still come out ahead in total delegates 2004 to 2003 and could possibly win.

If she wins 54% of the remaining delegates (306 delegates to 260), then in the "Obama gets MI 55" scenario she would be behind in total delegates, 1992-2015, and would then need 58.7% of the remaining supers to win (possible, but much more dicey).

If she wins only 52% of the remaining delegates (294 delegates to 272), then in the "Obama gets MI 55" scenario she would be behind in total delegates, 1980-2027, and would then need 62% of the remaining supers to win (much less likely).

If she wins only 50% of the remaining delegates (283 delegates to 283), then in the "Obama gets MI 55" scenario she would be behind in total delegates, 2038-1969, and would then need 65% of the remaining supers to win (extremely unlikely).

[ProSense]

23. Excellent! n/t

[Tom Rinaldo]

29. "If she wins only 52% of the remaining delegates ..."

This is the worst case scenario for a Clinton win. She has to finish this campaign stronger than Obama does to make any case that the final trend broke toward her. And she would have to couple that with leads in National polls over Obama and match up better against Obama in polls against McCain, plus be significantly more competitive against McCain in several key battle ground states than is Obama.

Depending on how strong she seems vs McCain relative to Obama at that point, she conceivably could win close to two thirds of the remaining super delegates in this scenario, because most "true believer" SD's have already endorsed by now. The ones still on the fence increasingly are pragmatists who want the Democrats to nominate our strongest candidate, whoever that might be.

[ProSense]

30. No cherry picking allowed. The quoted is based

on the following fantasy scenario for Hillary:

PA, WV, KY with 64% or a 28-pt margin
PR, MT, SD with 58.5% or a 17-pt margin
IN, OR by a 55% or a 10-pt margin
NC by 49.5% or a margin of -1.

[Tom Rinaldo]

31. "My rosy scenario gave Clinton 58.1% of the remaining delegates"

I believe that is what you refer to. I was commenting on a less rosey 52% scenario, which was mentioned in the post I responded to.

[ProSense]

32. It's still based on the same fantasy scenario, but with MI and FL added, which means

it's even worse because even FL and MI can't help her.

[Taxmyth]

3. Variables

Math can be very confusing once variables are entered into the equation, especially if those variables are unknown.

[ProSense]

4. For example:

Hillary could lose PA, which would be a huge blow, possibly campaign ending.

Obama could lose NC, which would be a blow, definitely survivable.

[Johnny__Motown]

7. Or she could be so low on funds that she can't compete in the later states properly

[Life Long Dem]

10. She won't release her funds for March.

[JayFredMuggs]

12. Very much the death of a campaign, not to brag about $

That's the final arbiter.........money....regretfully so.

Hillary pulls out when the money isn't there........she's hoping to hobble into victory in PA, that's all she can possibly be hoping for.

[Johnny__Motown]

18. Rumor has it below 20 million

[bhikkhu]

22. Worth saying, looking at expense statements,

20 mil in Hillary's account goes about as far as 10 mil in Obama's.

[JayFredMuggs]

11. So you are saying what?

No one will ever know or you don't care?

[Taxmyth]

14. We will know when we know

But we don't know yet. No later than August would be my guess :-)

[Life Long Dem]

9. Pennsylvania: Hillary 58% Obama 42% Hillary 58%? That's wishful thinking at that!!

[JayFredMuggs]

13. Very interesting thread and link

Let's keep this as a good thread to go back to for the next few weeks, hopefully CNN will keep the link there!

[Cha]

17. What's with Guam?

Why isn't Obama doing better there? And I heard last night of some elected Puerto Ricans who were supporting Obama.

"Obama is winning the support of the top politicians in Puerto Rico
Edited on Tue Apr-01-08 01:55 AM by Katzenkavalier
He's got the top Democratic figure in the Popular Democratic Party, Governor Anibal Acevedo Vila (yes, a corrupt man but that's Puerto Rican politics for you) and his delegation in the House and Senate (about 30 congressmen in total), the Vice-President and candidate for Resident Comissioner from the New Progressive Party, Pedro Pierluisi, the President of the Party of Puerto Ricans for Puerto Rico Rogelio Martinez, the daughter of the founder of the Popular Democratic Party, Victoria Muñoz Mendoza...

I'm telling you- Hillary Clinton is not realizing it, but Democrats in Puerto Rico are moving towards Obama in a big way. The fact that two of the top figures of the two biggest parties in PR are supporting Barack should tell you that she might be in for the biggest surprise of the campaign season."


http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5337628

[Johnny__Motown]

20. Maybe Richardson's endorsement was not as worthless as the Clinton people said it was

[Cha]

21. I think not!

[ProSense]

24. What's a big win?

Superdelegate says Clinton needs 'big win' in Pennsylvania

[Alter Ego]

25. I think you're being generous to her in PA and IN

but the others I think you're about right on.

[ProSense]

27. It was a best case scenario.

It would be a surprise if Hillary got 58% to 64% of the vote in any state (KY is a possiblity).

[Scurrilous]

28. Kick

:kick:

[ProSense]

33. Ooh, I love a good

smack down

[ProSense]

34. Ooh, desperation talking

Some Top Hillary Hands Concluding She Can't Win Nomination Without Popular Vote

By Greg Sargent - April 3, 2008, 4:08PM
As the race heads into the fourth quarter, top Hillary advisers and supporters are wrestling with a big question:

Is it really politically feasible for her to continue to try to woo super-delegates in the event of a loss in both the pledged delegate count and the popular vote?

Top Hillary supporters and advisers appear to be concluding that the answer is probably No. Without a popular vote victory to offset Obama's expected victory among pledged delegates, they say, it will be difficult indeed to make a case to super-dels that they should support her.

<...>

Top Hillary Supporters Start Publicly Saying She Needs Popular Vote Win

For the first time today, some of Hillary's top supporters started publicly acknowledging that she needs a popular vote victory. In an interview with The Huffington Post, prominent Hillary surrogate and Pennsylvania Rep. Jack Murtha flatly predicted that without a popular vote victory, she would lose.

"She has to be ahead in the popular vote to have any chance at all of getting this nomination," Murtha told HuffPo.

more

[ProSense]

35. Hillary's PR problem?

Ex-governor discusses Puerto Rico, U.S. relations

Andrew Meola

Issue date: 4/4/08 Section: News

During the question and answer portion of the event, one audience member asked Colón about the recent proposed bill, signed by Democratic Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York, which states that commonwealth is not an option as a permanent status of Puerto Rico.

"That report will probably cost Hillary Clinton the primary in Puerto Rico," Colón said.

When Colón ended his speech, the audience rose to its feet and delivered a standing ovation. For several minutes after the official speech was over, students gathered around to exchange a few words with the former governor.

more