What I think is going to happen....

[HardWorkingDem]

I think that Obama will end up with the Dem nomination and afterward when the focus then starts to peer down on Obama and McCain, Obama's poll numbers will shoot right out of the roof.

Slowly important questions will be asked and answered. One will be if the Republican's deserve to keep the White House. Of course that answer will be no. Then McCain will be morphed into a Bush 3 clone. He is all ready making huge gaffes that should be used against him for great gains. He made a couple today.

And I think our Dem Convention will be HUGE and will propel Obama in such a way we have not seen for some time. Lastly, I also hope that our party is able to build a narrative that will be able to build a reflective armor on Obama as it pertains to race. I keep hoping that our media will be persuaded to ignore the blatant attempts at racial politics and shame those who try to interject such tactics. (I know the last might be naive, but I still hope that if the Rethugs start any Willie Horton shit the media, except for FauxNews of course, will shame it so badly they won't try it again).

But I think we are great shape for Nov.

[splat]

1. I think something unforeseen is going to change the course of the race

[GarbagemanLB]

3. Yeah, that Clintonite 'hope' was Wright, and it HELPED Obama. lol.

[splat]

4. When did you start speaking for me? I'm talking about something that hasn't happened yet

[totodeinhere]

5. Since I'm not psychic like you, please tell me what that bombshell will be.

[GarbagemanLB]

6. Probably Rezko? lol

[splat]

10. Pearls before swine...go find your own right brain

[murielm99]

26. You could be right.

In politics, a lot of things are about timing. That is why the republicans always try to pull an October surprise.

I think that Foley and the Macaca incident came too close to the election for the republicans to do any damage control. That is why we gained a narrow majority in Congress. Of course people finally realized how fed up they were with Iraq, but those two things helped us.

Most people are sickened by any hint of sex with underage people. The fact that it was homosexual made it worse for some voters. And Macaca was just ridiculous. Who could vote for a politician who made himself look like a fool? The kind of racism the republicans may use against Obama will be different. They will find a way to play on people's fears.

Anything can happen. November is far away and timing is everything.

[gateley]

2. On whose watch

did it get to the point where a projected 28 million Americans will be on food stamps. Where Hawaii's second largest airline has ceased operations.
Where gas is $4/gallon.

How on earth could they even PRETEND to put forth the argument that they deserve to keep the WH?

I'm with you. I think we'll cream 'em.

[anonymous171]

7. Me too. McLame can only fly under the media radar for so long.

He can only keep the "maverick" name for as long as we let him, then he becomes this:

[Life Long Dem]

8. I heard today, 140,000 repubs registered as dems in PA.

Tucker Carlson mentioned that to Chris Matthews, and no one disagreed. If so, that's really something.

Oh yeah, let me add on edit. He also said how many do you think are going to Hillary. Not many at all was the answer.

[IndependentDem]

9. i think this is going to happen regardless of the dem nominee...

our only chance of losing is if democrats don't vote.

[murielm99]

11. Here is what I think is going to happen...

Obama will win the nomination and lose the general.

He will not be able to stand up to the barrage of swift boating and mud slinging that is typical of the republicans.

More dirt will come out about Obama. Some of it will stick. There will be minute examinations of his past, and of the Chicago-style campaign that won the day for him. I am not saying that Chicago-style politics are bad. It is actually just hardball politics. And that is so last century, given Florida, Ohio, voting machines, and all the Bush/Cheney corruption we have endured.

But the perception of corrupt machine-style politics will be there. The media and the republicans will see to it. Everyone will know more about the Chicago Democratic machine and Illinois politics in general than they ever wanted to know.

Of course there will be racism. The republicans will not care. They will ignore those charges.

The media will at long last focus on the real negatives that Obama carries. And all politicians have them. They don't want a Democrat to win, and we will see it after the convention.

The Obama supporters here who have been naive will cry and whine and wonder what went wrong.

I do not want this. No one at DU wants this. I am afraid for my country. But Obama is the wrong candidate at the wrong time. He should be governor first, or vice president. People should be able to get to know him as a capable politician, and in a role other than that of an ambitious person who has always been running for the next higher position.

[goldcanyonaz]

12. I wholeheartedly agree with you.

[murielm99]

14. When Harry Truman ran,

they tried to tar him with his past association with the Pendergast machine.

Truman was not expected to win. I am glad he did, because I think he was a great President.

I think the machine charges did not stick the way his opponents wanted because he had had time to distance himself from the machine, and he had proven himself already with his time in office. The same is not true of Obama.

[gateley]

13. The Dems need to point out

McCain's bursts of temper and profanity on the Senate floor. Hmmm, is he STABLE? PSTD?

His anti-Republican votes.

And more that IF we're on our game (or stealing from the Rep's game with any success) - we can bury him.

Put your fear about Obama away, little one. We'll be fine.

[murielm99]

16. Don't patronize me. n/t

[gateley]

20. I could ask the same of you with your OP. nt

[AZ Criminal JD]

19. Can there be a more naive post?

Pointing out his "anti-Republican votes"! That will drive every independent to him. When you get out of high school rejoin politics, little one.

[gateley]

21. Will do. Won't be long now.

And then hopefully I can KNOW how independents will vote, just like you do -- even though the first two Google responses indicate just the opposite, but thanks for your sharing your wisdom.

Independent Voters Favor Democrats by 2 to 1 in Poll

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/23/AR2006102300766.html


Independent Voters Swing Dems' Way

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2007/07/05/independent-voters-swing-_n_55118.html

[americanstranger]

15. Fully disagree.

Clinton has waged a Republican-style campaign against him, and his campaign has shown themselves extremely able to counter every negative charge thrown at him. You can see it when you read the posts of the Clinton supporters here - they keep on recycling stuff that's weeks, even moths old, because everything the Clinton campaign and the media have thrown at him has bounced off.

Obama is a gifted campaigner, and David Axelrod and his team are much, much better than anyone is willing to give them credit for. I'd go as far as to say that by the time the campaign is over, people will regard Axelrod with the same esteem that was once showered on James Carville and Paul Begala.

Case in point: Hillary's '3 AM' ad. That ad came out, and Axelrod and his team put together a rebuttal ad and had it out in the same news cycle. Unprecedented, smart, timely - they ate Clinton's lunch and stole her milk money that day, period.

Even the Wright episode - which had Hannity and O'Reilly and most of the media squawking about it for days on end, and which many people here (Obama supporters included) thought would be the end of his campaign - was handled in a timely manner, with maddening media savvy. They responded on a Friday with a statement to Huffington Post, then Obama hit the cable shows - one at 8:00, one at 9:00, one at 10:00.

First, they got the internets buzzing. Then they took on all three cable nets, giving all the Sunday shows all the video footage they could handle. Whether you realize it or not, that was one of the most masterful uses of the media in the past 20 years.

Sure, you can call me naive, but I know what I'm seeing and I'm a trained observer (I have a degree in broadcast journalism). And I'm telling you that the media and the radio haters are going to run into something they've never seen before, and they are going to have no idea how to deal with it. Obama and his team flat-out know what they're doing, and there hasn't been a War Room in place like theirs since 1992.

You can worry all you want, but you'll forgive me if I don't wring hands with you.

- as

[joshcryer]

18. While I disagree with your comments it's nice to see some substantive posts around here.

Not one liners full of garbage.

My main disagreement here is that while Obama's past will likely come up, he's very good at responding to things and making them seem like non-issues. This ability will fare well for him in the future.

[quakerboy]

24. Because he has

folded so rapidly under the current bout of mudslinging and swiftboating?

what gives you the impression that he is so fragile?

[murielm99]

25. It is not about fragility.

It is about public perception.

This is about the general, not the primary.

[HardWorkingDem]

28. One thing we will learn...

is where America stands on race. Whether some think it is front and center now or not, it will be seen in Nov (if Obama is the nominee). I have hope in the new young voters and current Dems and think that this will be enough to out do the slowly, gentrifying, white male rethuglican party.

[KoKo]

29. With our Economy failing, war and looming war in Iran...and Criminals in the Govt...Race shouldn't

be the deciding issue in this campaign. Nor, should gender. It's disappointing that our Dems "Powers that Be" decided to focus on both. It takes the heat off Bush/Cheney and off McCain. It has divided Dems and caused great bitterness that will last...but, hopeful, will start some real reforms in our Dem Party from Grassroots up. Howard Dean has begun some of this...but there is so much more that needs to be done no matter if a Dem or a Repug wins in November. It's almost irrelevant because our problems are so major that no one will be able to fix it in one term and will probably be so bruised and battered they won't make it to a second term. But...that's just my 2 cents. There are always surprises.

[HardWorkingDem]

30. I agree....but....

I think if Obama is our nominee, and I believe he will be, when it comes to Nov, we will have a great idea where this country stands on race - it will be more out in the open than ever before (to the country as a whole).

I'm hoping it will be a positive showing and not a negative one, but it still concerns me. It seems to me that every day, more and more young people are more tolerant toward race, gays and religions and that we are progressing.

Still, I do believe a lot of politics is so gut level that those on the right will not fail to surprise us at all when it comes to the general and far exceed their own reputation for racial politics.

[Swamp Rat]

17. McClame is gonne lose BIG time!

:D

[tomreedtoon]

22. Sorry, but...ever hear of the Assassination Special?

That was the name of the bar car in the commuter trains going to and from New York during Roosevelt's term. It was full of hard-drinking Republican business types who loved to tell jokes like "Roosevelt died and his wife was run over on the way to the funeral! Har, har, har!"

I'm sure that bar car retains that title, but the men doing the hard drinking and the nasty jokes are talking about a real assassination this time - enthusiastically. Don't be surprised if only one party has a living candidate by election time...and I don't mean because of old age.

[murielm99]

23. I hate to see that sort of thing posted here.

I am not trying to flame you with a one-liner. That is just an honest reaction.

[tomreedtoon]

27. I hate to post it, but...I'm afraid it contains truth.

Just for comparison, the DU post that offended me said "Obama will only make it to the White House...when he opens the door for Hillary Clinton to begin her term." I couldn't help but see that as saying "...when Hillary Clinton steps over his dead assassinated body which will be the doormat to the White House."

Yes, the campaign is that nasty. No, I don't think the Clinton supporters will go that low (although I've been wrong before about them). But I'd bet on a Limbaugh listener being willing to "save the nation" through the use of firepower.

Why do you think the Secret Service told law enforcement not to provide help when Obama spoke there? Do you think Bush and his buddies want to PROTECT Obama?

And if it does happen...no matter who wins the White House, it won't matter, because there will be public rage in this country that will make what's happening in Iraq seem like a high school play by comparison.