Am I dreaming?

[FlyingSquirrel]

Current numbers:

Obama 1414, supers 216, Total 1630
Clinton 1250, supers 246, Total 1496

PA: Obama 74, Clinton 84
IN: Obama 36, Clinton 36
NC: Obama 63, Clinton 52

All: Obama 173, Clinton 172

So, on May 6: (supers keep trickling in at current rate)

Obama 1587, supers 227, Total 1814
Clinton 1422, supers 249, Total 1671

Total remaining delegates including supers: 540

Obama needs 38.9% of them to clinch nomination
Clinton needs 65.4% of them to clinch nomination

-----

Alternatively, on May 6:

If MI and FL were included with Uncommitted in MI going to Obama:

Obama 1709, supers 232, Total 1941
Clinton 1600, supers 264, Total 1864

Total remaining delegates including supers: 575

Obama needs 46.4% of them to clinch nomination
Clinton needs 59.8% of them to clinch nomination

-----

Hillary finally accepts reality and drops out on May 6.

-----

:party:

Well, I can dream.

[phrigndumass]

1. Looks like a very probable outcome to me

... if she makes it past April 22, as far as I know.

:hi:

[FlyingSquirrel]

2. One problem I see...

Rather than looking at the number she would need to clinch the nomination, Hillary could look at the number she'd need to prevent Obama from clinching the nomination.

In the MI/FL scenario that's only 53.7% to prevent him from getting the necessary votes, as opposed to the 59.8% for her to actually clinch the nomination; and she might be factoring in the possibility of twisting a few supers' arms or otherwise contesting some pledged delegates.

:sigh:

[crankychatter]

3. The problem with accepting reality

If I accept reality, then I have to consider the possibility that Clinton indeed, doesn't care if the White House goes to McCain. It's really too awful to contemplate.

I don't expect her to drop out at all, ever.

In fact I expect her to assert at Convention that failure to seat the delegates from MI and FL, based upon that skewed non-contest... coupled with "unfair" caucuses, constitutes an erroneous nomination. She will even claim voter fraud in all caucus states.

Further, she will claim that SD's failure to support her (by her own definition, the most electable candidate) is an abrogation of their responsibilities to the Party.

There will be litigation and her supporters you see here, with their foaming at the mouth, willful defiance of the facts, parroted spin and talking points, are just the tip of the iceberg. The media will have a hey day.

There will be a firestorm of unprecedented ferocity, of Corporate RW fueled and financed shenanigans.

That's my prediction.

This end run around corporate (war profiteer) domination of our elective process won't be allowed to stand.

What's funny is that Obama is a moderate.

[crankychatter]

4. only two ways I see to avoid this nightmare scenario

SD's swing the vote to Clinton... she gets the nomination.

Second, OVERWHELMING rise of Obama in the remaining States.

both entirely plausible.

I know, I'm talking to myself.

[FlyingSquirrel]

5. It's ok it was late at night.

God, I don't want to see a Convention battle, no matter who would win it.