New IA Poll confirms Obama and Clinton in PA dead heat! 45-43 Hillary

[Dbdmjs1022]

http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/downloads/uploaded/33_InsiderAdvantage_Majority_Opinion_PA_Dem_Poll_(4-3-2008).pdf

So much for people thinking that the polls showing Obama ranging from 2 up to 5 down being anomalies! Obama now only trails Hillary by 3% in the new IA poll.

GObama!

[rndmprsn]

1. K&R

[acrosstheuniverse]

3. Oh man

Hope can be a dangerous thing. Now my nerves are rattled with it more then ever.

Go Bama!

[democrattotheend]

10. Seriously. I want these polls to stop.

It just ups the ante, and most of them have been wrong all season. If SurveyUSA shows it closer I will start to believe it's possible.

[sfam]

29. Agreed. We should ban all polls not from SUSA...they are all flawed nt

[OzarkDem]

2. Sorry, no

Outside the margin of error. Nice try, though.

[Dbdmjs1022]

5. Actually it's well within the margin of error

The MOE is 3.7%. Nice try though.

[MadBadger]

6. MOE is 3.7, and shes up 2

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

8. Margin of error 3.7%

And a typo in the OP, it's 45% C, 43% O.

Nice try though.

[CreekDog]

but what about the trend?

:shrug:

[book_worm]

22. proven wrong again

H up by 2 moe is 3.7%

[TahitiNut]

25. You continue to embarass yourself.

:nopity:

[Alexander]

37. You think OzarkDem will respond to these facts?

Something tells me "no". These types tend to be hit-and-run posters.

[dchill]

30. OzarkDem - now officially...

Outside the margin of error.

[MadBadger]

4. Actually, its Hillary 45-43

[Dbdmjs1022]

7. You're right. I mistyped. Fixed

[MadBadger]

9. This poll severely underrepresents Obama's African American Support

They have it at 55-29 right now for Obama. We all know that wong happen.

[book_worm]

23. really? he'll get more like 80% is my guess.

[democrattotheend]

32. Yeah, but the white vote looks off too

I work in the labor movement and the people I work with know PA pretty well, and they predict Obama will lose the white vote by 30 points in PA.

[MadBadger]

33. Maybe among the "working class" but among the college educated white surburban libs, he will do well

[democrattotheend]

35. That's what I had thought

But after spending some time on the Main Line two weeks ago I was not so convinced. He has some support among rich white liberals in the Philly suburbs, but not as much as I had expected. But that was in the middle of the Wright controversy, so maybe it's a little better now. I will let you know after I go back this weekend.

[MadBadger]

36. But you are basing this off of two weeks ago.

That was when he was polling 15-25 points behind.

[grantcart]

11. Look at the similarities at these two states before the election

[woolldog]

24. I don't see any similarity.

HRC WI's support was not terribly strong and treaded water for a long time. HRC PA support shows a strong positive trendline.

[thereismore]

12. A lot of AA voters have not decided yet. This will work for Obama. nt

[MadBadger]

14. The pollsters in this poll say that his AA support is too low and that it will change.

[Upton]

13. All the polls are trending Obama

it's all good. Clinton has to win big in Pa., she's loses, it over.

[Texas Hill Country]

15. what kind of poll is that?

[MadBadger]

16. A PA poll?

Its all coming crashing down.

[Texas Hill Country]

27. i have never heard of them at all and dont know their methodology... sounds like crap tho.

[MadBadger]

28. Besides the fact that they have it within the MOE and that upsets you, Why does it sound like crap?

[thoughtcrime1984]

38. I think the SUSA poll with Hil up by 12 is closest.

Hil by 20 wouldn't shock me. If Obama gets it down to the 8-9 range, he is golden.

[jefferson_dem]

17. Obama pulling in 40% of white vote and plenty of room to grow among blacks.

Great news indeed!

[featherman]

18. Crazy stuff... only 56-29% AA margin for Obama

Undecided at 12% and margin of error gives a Keith number of 16.

While I'm glad to see this poll showing PA to be closer than the conventional thinking it does seem a bit off.

For entertainment purposes only, as they say.

[MidwestTransplant]

19. For most of the campaign until January or so, Clinton had a big lead among black voters.

[book_worm]

20. I like the title, "Clinton campaign on life support" of article.

[book_worm]

21. He really needs to stay in PA as much as possible to close this deal

if she loses PA she is finished--no if, why's or buts about it. The party will then begin to demand she get out of the race if she doesn't do it herself.

[loveangelc]

26. too good to be true.

[Milo_Bloom]

31. Anything less than a 10 point Clinton win is the official end of her.

[Bullet1987]

34. Insider Advantage have some tough remarks...

“She will have to pull off a near-miracle to win Pennsylvania, to say nothing of her winning by a substantial margin, which she almost certainly needs to stay alive in the Democratic presidential sweepstakes,” said Towery.

WOW!! I can't wait for the next Rasmussen poll to come out. Zogby and SUSA too.