Popular Vote Pugilism

[mikekohr]

We are in the 11th, round of a championship fight. Senator Obama is up by 827,308 popular votes, excluding MI and FL. Senator Obama's name was not on the ballot in MI and 40% choose to vote uncommitted. In Florida the "no campaign pledge" gave a big advantage to the candidate with the greatest name recognition at that point, Senator Clinton. Both of those results are tainted beyond repair and can not be reconciled, short of a re vote, which has been ruled out. Irregardless, if FL's and MI's vote totals were included, Senator Obama still leads, albeit by only 204,227 votes.

Given the current polling data available, it is clear, that Senator Obama's lead in the popular vote will hold or increase.

Since 2/5/2008 Senator Obama has picked up approximately 70 SDs. Senator Clinton has picked up five. Senator Clinton's narrowing lead in SDs, about 30 at this point, is based on "early commitments," secured before the primary season began, when it appeared she was the inevitable nominee.

It is still mathematically possible for Senator Clinton to overtake Senator Obama in the popular vote, but not probable short of a scandal or egregious mistake on Senator Obama'a part. Given his performance thus far, that is also unlikely.

Mike Weaver dropped Big John Tate with a left hook from hell in the final minutes of the 15th round of their championship fight after losing nearly every round. Rocky Marciano dropped Jersey Joe Walcott after being taken to school by the cagey, experienced veteran for 13 rounds. These things do happen. And they are remembered so well because they happen so infrequently.

We have two tough candidates left. Both a a credit to our party. We are in the last rounds of a championship fight. One competitor has landed more jabs (popular votes), more power shots and body blows (blowout victories), won far more rounds (primaries and caucus's) and enters the last rounds with more endurance and wind (money and organization). The other contender came off her stool at the start of this round, tired, bloody and desperate for a knockout blow. As a former golden glove boxer I have seen enough fights to know how this is going to end. Even in Hollywood, Rocky Balboa, could not pull off a last minute knockout of Apollo Creed.


source:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president /...

mike kohr

[Texas Hill Country]

1. Obama would lead IF he was given all 40%, which includes Edwards votes too...

that fact often gets missed.

It is actually a better deal for Obama, cause he ends up with more votes than he deserves.