Hillary v. McCain : My electoral college prediction.....

[woolldog]

In a nutshell, she loses. Any thoughts?

[FrenchieCat]

1. That looks about right to me.

[jconner27]

4. Boy you followers are something else

That map could be for Obama as well.

[FrenchieCat]

10. Nope....that's not his map......

But thank you, groupie (since I'm a follower).

[jconner27]

13. So....

So you're 100% sure that Obama will not fall to the same fate? Boy you Obama followers are a hoot. Maybe you got Friday's lotto numbers?

[FrenchieCat]

16. We're about as much of a hoot as hillary groupies.........

Maybe you'll realize that your candidate won't be running in the GE...then you'll be dealing with reality, and not so much the lotto dream you're talking about.

[jconner27]

38. Ah ha

Sure Obama is going to suck up all those traditional red Republicans states damn Frenchie you got a grasp of reality..

[FrenchieCat]

43. Ah ha.....

see map. http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5378158&mesg_id=5378554

then "grasp" at yourself.

[oldtime dfl_er]

2. New Hampshire and Oregon?

They could tip the balance.

[woolldog]

5. There's some strong anti-HRC sentiment in Oregon apparently.

She's losing WA to McCain also, but I figure Washingtonians will come to their senses before Nov, if she were nominated.

[Radio_Lady]

31. Hard to say. There are few to none bumper stickers on cars here.

It's as if people can't or won't decide -- or maybe it's too far in the future.

Frankly, I am so fatigued by the arguing that I'll probably let my husband fill out my mail in card, and join him in his choice, rather than have our votes cancel each other. Then, if the May 20 primary results are available, we'll listen. Then, on 5/22, we'll fly off to Boston to celebrate my 69th birthday.

I did see ONE Obama sign in a neighborhood yard yesterday -- a community of 262 families.

[FrenchieCat]

12. All those Independent in NH will not be voting for Hillary......

Independent voters, or undeclared voters as they are called here, make up 45 percent of the electorate, up from 28 percent in 1996, when the legislature changed the law to simplify same-day registration.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/02/us/politics/02voters.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

[kerry-is-my-prez]

21. No way is she going to lose Oregon....

You are VERY mistaken.

[woolldog]

30. I have her losing Oregon for a combination of reasons:

1. Kerry won Oregon by only about 80k votes

2. She is currently behind McCain in Oregon

3. There is some serious anti-HRC sentiment in Oregon

[kerry-is-my-prez]

37. Wow! I always thought Oregon was more progressive than that.

Sort of like Washington State. Were they always barely blue like that?

[SoCalDem]

3. She wouldn't get Arkansas n/t...or NM

[FrenchieCat]

14. New Mexico? Especially after what her campaign have attempted to trash Richardson.....

that won't play well.

[BenDavid]

6. Oh I know most likely you have a map already for someone to

ask you just where in the hell is obama going to win his 270? let me give you my take on obama. first you can take off the ohio if you have it for obama. Also, you can take off Pa. if it is obama.....if it is obama, we all can get to bed early once the media projects that mcCain has won Penn.....

I disagree with your Wisc.....She will win that state....and she will win also oregon....bill won it twice and gore and kerry won it....so give her oregon....

[woolldog]

9. Yes I do. Here's my Obama map

[BenDavid]

27. take away virgina...senator warner will have more pull then

webb when it comes to the military vote......also you can take off Pa. take off north dakota..take off new mexico and nevada....anyway you slice it obama loses and hrc wins....take the usual blue states won on average since 92 96 00 04 and add ohio and florida and there you go my friend for hrc

[malik flavors]

29. In the latest polling Obama is ahead in N.D., P.A. N.M. and N.V. vs. McCain

[woolldog]

32. Are you saying military families are going to vote McCain?

Mr. 100 years in Iraq? The guy who wants to start another war with Iran? I don't think so.

VA may be a bit of a stretch, I concede. But I if Obama picks Webb as a runningmate, it will help him in both VA and MO (where Obama was doing well, but now trails badly).

The democratic machine is strong in PA and they can turn out the votes there.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

7. She would win Florida over McCain. She's better on the economy.

n/t

[FrenchieCat]

11. I don't think so.....

Florida has a Republican Governor, and we know what happened the last 2 elections. Let's not just say stuff, just to be saying it.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

15. The people in the panhandle don't like him.The Cubans like her. We have a lot of midwesterners

Those groups tend to like Hillary - plus the elderly population.

[FrenchieCat]

19. The Cubans "like" her? Where did you get that from?

Like the "Liked" Bill Clinton and Janet Reno after Elian? LOL!

Can I see a cite on that statement of yours? Thank you.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

24. The Cubans turned out in large numbers to vote for Hillary - they've forgotten Elian.

They are not as into the Republcian Party anymore.

[woolldog]

28. Mccain won Florida because he was so popular with the Cubans

Cubans love a moderate republican.

[woolldog]

17. If Hillary is the nominee, I think McCain will pick

Gov. Crist as his running-mate b/c Florida will be a very important state to Hillary. It will be the linchpin of her November strategy.

If Obama is the nominee, Obama will basically concede Florida and that will free up McCain to pick someone like Romney to battle with Obama out west, as that will be the area where the election turns: NV and CO.

[Skink]

8. Remember those picures of Bush and Cheney with Powell....

float the idea of Richardson as Secretary of state and everything that is red from Texas to California becomes blue.

[Radio_Lady]

18. So you're basically saying that Hillary loses to McCain and (upthread)

Barack wins over McCain? (Sorry, but it's late and I just saw your site. You have posted no personal information. I'm just wondering: Are you the owner/administrator of that website? It doesn't look very busy, but the election year is young.)

http://www.270towin.com

I guess we'll know sometime around the end of the year, or early next year? Let's just hope that the courts, and especially the Supreme Court doesn't get involved.

What about Michigan and Florida? I don't think my heart can stand it.

Cordially,

Radio Lady in Oregon

[woolldog]

34. hi radio lady

it's not my site. I just happen to think it's a good one.

[Radio_Lady]

39. Thanks for the explanation. Might be good to watch unless I get too cross-eyed.

I did debate the subject of:

SHOULD THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE BE ELIMINATED AND REPLACED WITH THE POPULAR VOTE?

Now, that was in my senior year of high school.

1956.

I don't remember many of the arguments, I'm afraid.

[woolldog]

40. you don't have to just watch.

The map is interactive, which means you can make your own picks. Just guide the arrow over a state and click on it to change color and watch the numbers change. Also at the bottom of the screen there's info that tells you how that state has voted in the last few elections.

[Radio_Lady]

41. Got it! I'll do that... after we list our house for sale tomorrow, and the

spouse and I get ready for a "realtor open house" and we finish our contingency paperwork on a new house we MIGHT buy if we sell our home and we get together with our kids and grandkids and I go to the dentist to get fitted for my new partial....and then take a course in volunteering for the adults and kids at www.forwardstride.org and check out any new movies that might be pertinent.

It's a busy life, isn't it?

Got politics?

Cordially,

Radio Lady Ellen in Oregon

"The first woman talk show host with a daily radio call-in program in Boston, Massachusetts."

[mjjacobs]

20. sorry woolldog....she will carry Florida.... and he will not carry

Michigan. Not a chance in hell.

[FrenchieCat]

23. I don't know why everyone thinks that the Cubans and the Haitians are gonna vote for Hillary

to where she can win.

Hell, Kerry lost by 400,000 votes. It was those pesky voting machines that we "forgot" about.....I do believe.

Please liberate us from having to rely on Florida. I would greatly appreciate it.

[woolldog]

25. Did you read my post #17

I think McCain will pick Crist (governor of Florida) if Hillary is the nominee because Florida will be so central to her GE strategy. He will do this precisely because HRC is so much more competitive in FL than Obama is. Picking Crist as his running mate will swing Florida back into McCain's column.

[GrandmaJones7]

22. Yes I have a thought

- nice Photo-shop hack job!

You are clearly delusional. Hillary will WIN this primary and BEAT McCain!

Its not too late- VOTE Hillary!

[woolldog]

42. um, ok grandma?

[readmoreoften]

26. So you just make up maps based on what you think?

Pretty tedious bro.

[FrenchieCat]

33. Do you have any maps? Here's Survey USA's map.......

[XemaSab]

45. That's FREAKISH!

North Dakota and possibly Nebraska? Wow...

[woolldog]

35. tedious?

not at all. I just took a screencap of my picks on this site: http://www.270towin.com/

and upload it to my photo-hosting site. It takes a few minutes if you already know what your picks are.

[BzaDem]

36. Wow -- if she wins that map plus OR, it is tied 269-269.

[woolldog]

44. k