By Susan Page, USA TODAY
RALEIGH, N.C. — The end could be near.
Or the endgame, at least, of a surprisingly drawn-out Democratic presidential contest. Four months and 42 states after the opening Iowa caucuses, the primary in North Carolina on May 6 now looms as a pivotal final showdown between Illinois Sen. Barack Obama and New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton.
Obama starts with a double-digit lead in polls here, a state where 2,400 free tickets to his rally at the War Memorial Auditorium in Greensboro last week were gone within three hours of the announcement he would appear. But Clinton has appeal in the Tar Heel State, too, and is competing hard. The day after Obama's rally, she drew 1,000 supporters to the gym at Terry Sanford High School in Fayetteville for a town hall meeting.
"I really believe May 6 has the potential to be everything," says Joe Trippi, a strategist for the presidential bids of former North Carolina senator John Edwards this year and Howard Dean in 2004. "Every day you see increased pressure on Hillary Clinton about why she's staying in, and if she could win in North Carolina it would shut down that kind of talk and open up the possibility she could get there" to the nomination.
"But if he wins in North Carolina," Trippi says of Obama, "I think you're going to see things close up very quickly. You'll see a lot of superdelegates line up behind him."
~snip~
Navigating a narrow path
Hillary Clinton's path to the nomination is a narrow one: Win big in Pennsylvania, prevail in North Carolina and force a favorable resolution of disputes over the Florida and Michigan delegations. The two states' delegates currently don't have seats at the convention because they were chosen in primaries held earlier than party rules allowed. Clinton's efforts to schedule new votes there have failed.
Strong showings in the final states could reduce Obama's lead in pledged delegates — though it is virtually impossible for her to overtake him, given the way the party distributes delegates proportionately in each state — and even gain her an edge in the popular vote. That would reinforce her argument to superdelegates that she wins the big states that would be crucial in a general-election campaign against presumptive Republican nominee John McCain.
A misstep or controversy that ensnared Obama would help Clinton, too, though he's apparently survived a furor in recent weeks over controversial remarks by his former pastor, Jeremiah Wright.
Clinton is spotlighting economic angst among working-class voters — the same issue her husband used when he promised to focus "like a laser beam" on the economy in the 1992 primaries.
~snip~
Steady as he goes
Obama's path to the nomination is an easier one: Stay the course.
Avoiding a blowout in Pennsylvania — or better — then winning in North Carolina would maintain his lead in the overall popular vote as well as his edge in pledged delegates. That would minimize any opening for Clinton to persuade superdelegates, who will hold the balance of power at the convention, to endorse her.
"When we started off, nobody thought we could win — let's face it," Obama says in Greensboro, responding to a question shouted from the balcony. "First of all, you've got a black guy named Barack Obama — you're starting in a hole," he says. "Then, I'm 46 years old, and I've got these big ears, so they make me look younger." He's used the line before, but it's new to this audience, which laughs appreciatively.
A desire for change has propelled his presidential bid, he says. "Keep in mind what has been so powerful and positive about this campaign is that the grass roots has stood up and said, 'We're going to give Barack a chance.' "
Mary Winstead, 54, the director of a trade school that retrains the unemployed, applauds from a seat near the back of the auditorium. "I think Hillary Clinton is a very nice person, but I do think we need a change, and Barack will be the man for the job," she says.
She is confident that at the end of the day Democrats will "come together" behind one contender or the other, and she doesn't fault Clinton for rejecting calls for her to withdraw from the race — yet.
"But if she doesn't do well in North Carolina," Winstead says of Clinton, "I think she should start considering that."
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-04-02-Endgame_N.htm?loc=interstitialskip
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