Newsweek: Of the 20 million Clinton raised in March, only 7 million likely eligible for Primary

[Bigleaf]

Could Money Woes Eventually Force Clinton from the Race?

When it comes to money and politics, looks can be deceiving. Take February's presidential fundraising receipts, for example. After losing 11 straight primary contests to Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton rebounded--in the headlines, at least--with the Feb. 29 announcement that she had racked up $34.5 million in contributions for the month, her all-time record. The only problem? Candidates aren't actually required to disclose full fundraising information until the 20th of the following month. Fortunately for Clinton, not many folks took notice when she finally filed with the FEC on March 20. If they had, they would've discovered that only a third of Clinton's February cash-on-hand, $11.7 million, was designated for the primary campaign; the remaining $20-plus million was all general election funds, and would only be available if she won the Democratic nomination. What's more, they would've also learned that Clinton's campaign had closed the month with $8.7 million in outstanding debt--leaving her at the start of March with a measly $3 million in free dough for the battles ahead.

I bring this up because we've suddenly reached the end of another month (and the start of another money-maniacal news cycle)--and only by looking back at February can we see how bleak March looks for Clinton. As usual, her financial fate doesn't seem particularly dire on its face. According to the Politico's Ben Smith, a Clinton campaign source says the candidate raised about $20 million for the month--her second-best finish to date, which isn't shabby for period largely lacking in competitive primaries. But if February's tally revealed anything, it's that Clinton has been unable to expand her donor base far enough beyond the traditional networks of wealthy Democrats; the $23 million gap between primary and general election funds proved that many of these contributors had long given the $2,300 maximum donation for the primary, and were now providing an additional $2,300 for the general only to inflate Clinton's monthly total and spur positive coverage. Assuming the pattern holds, it's unlikely that Clinton raised more than $7 million that she can actually use against Obama--less, you'll notice, than last month's debt, which is probably still outstanding. (And that's not even counting the $5 million Clinton loaned her campaign at the end of January.) In any case, we won't know for sure until--you guessed it--April 20. On a conference call this morning, Clinton spokesman Howard Wolfson refused to confirm the $20 million figure and reminded reporters that the campaign would not release its numbers until required by law. "We will have the resources that we need to compete," said Wolfson. Not exactly a confidence booster.

http://www.blog.newsweek.com/blogs/stumper/archive/2008/04/03/could-money-woes-eventually-force-clinton-from-the-race.aspx

[FrenchieCat]

1. Can't she just "do" another loan?

Cause last I look, she has more than enough to spare.

[Bigleaf]

3. She sure can. Will she do it? That is the question. Notice that she held fundraisers

yesterday I believe in California. Obama does not need to do traditional fundraisers.

[BlueIdaho]

14. What makes you think she didn't already?

Is there anything that says a loan is NOT part of her big old 20 million dollar month?

[AllentownJake]

48. Shows weakness to the Supers

If she loans again it will show the supers she is weak in fundraising. She'll start to look like Romney.

[TAWS]

2. Anyone knows what happens if Obama has money left over from primary?

Can he use it in GE or does he have to spend it before the convention?

[TomBall Democrat]

23. Was wondering that myself...

campaign finance and PAC rules are so complicated -

I'm surprised to learn that she can't use all the money collected.

Didn't realize it could be earmarked for specific uses.

This is a far bleaker financial outlook, if so.

[redqueen]

29. I don't know that it's earmarked... I thought the implication was that donors had maxed out

on donating to her primary campaign, so they donated to her GE fund instead.

:shrug:

[TomBall Democrat]

32. Now that makes more sense.

But isn't the cap set annually for all funds.

Is there a way around the annual cap by earmarking for another use?

That's good to know, if so. I can send Obama more $$$ then.

[redqueen]

38. It looks like it's divided between two types of funds...

if there's another type I'm not aware of it.

Heh, do like the richey rich people and give it to friends and family and have them donate it. :P

[ecdab]

36. My understanding is that the money doesn't become earmarked

for the GE or the Primary until a individual donor contributes over $2,300. So, if a person donates $500, that $500 can be used in either the GE or the Primary. If a person donates $3,000, a maximum of $2,300 can be used for either the GE or the primary. When candidates receive donations greater than $2,300 they spend the money that can only be spent in one election or the other first. A simplified example of this would be as follows: Obama receives 20 $500 donations ($10,000 total which can be spent on the GE or the primary) and 5 $4,600 donations ($23,000 total - $11,500 of which could only be spent on the primary and $11,500 of which could only be spent on the GE). Obama would spend the $11,500 which he could only use on the primary first, and hold off on spending the remaining $21,500 until his primary only funds were empty so that he could carry as much of that money into the GE as possible. Most of the money that Obama has raised can be used in either the GE or the primary.

[KittyWampus]

4. OUCH! That's going to leave a mark.

[KittyWampus]

39. kick

[Bullet1987]

5. I don't think she'll bow out due to money problems...

She'll stack up on the I.O.U.'s before that ever happened.

[bhikkhu]

6. Wow. That's a bit grim.

And now with everyone looking at the 109 Million in income, and thinking why does she need their money...

[Zachstar]

43. Yep its a double campaign damage dealer.

Lack of money + support leaving = losses in upcoming states.

[rainbow4321]

7. $3 mil on hand..and her IOU to Penn on Mar 20 was $2,492,680.00

Geez, dude, you could have ended this all pretty quickly by demanding she pay up.


http://query.nictusa.com/pres/2008/M3/C00431569/D_DEBTS_C00431569.html


The way the article lays out the money stats, it really is worth taking another look at her March 20th IOU list. She doesn't stand a chance in hell of getting caught up.



I say she stays in til right after PA primary and then she either has to loan herself more money or drop out. It'll be "poor me, I was outspent".

[anigbrowl]

9. She's fucked. As for Penn...

I've been thinking all day about the Columbia thing. His firm is lobbying on their behalf for a trade deal, and both Clinton and Obama have said they oppose it. but the other day, Columbia's President Uribe was criticizing Obama publicly about it...and only Obama.

Spot a pattern here?

[PA Democrat]

15. Maybe that's why he did the Colombia thing- he knew it was a paying gig,

and that he may never see the rest of what Hillary owes him.

[redqueen]

31. Not exactly hidden, is it?

[MadBadger]

8. Force her from the race? Clinton's got themselves plenty of money.

[anigbrowl]

10. So had romney, but public opinion turned against him when they felt he was trying to buy the nom.

I can't see her loaning herself more money. By her own admission, she probably wouldn't have done as well as she did on Super Tuesday without that $5 million. If she does the same thing to get past PA, the superdelegates are likely to take a dim view of it. Who wants to be seen voting for someone who's trying to buy their way to the nomination?

[babylonsister]

11. IMO, this is ridiculous. Hillary, throw your support to Obama, and

lick your wounds. If you ever 'win', many of us will wonder how you did it.

[AZBlue]

44. She has less money every day, fewer supporters every day and

less credibility every day. It's pretty absurd at this point.

[mckeown1128]

12. What is really damaging...

is that we know after debt she had 3 million in the bank for march... and (if true) 7 million for April... that is 10 million for March and April combined... if you subtract her loan(which she is obviously going to pay back considering she is charging her campaign interest) that leaves 5 million dollars to spend for both March and April!!!!!!

5 million dollars for two months... In February she spent 1 million dollars a day... My GOD... she could be in debt in the tens of millions of dollars.... She has cut her spending... but payroll, commercials, travel... 5 million doesn't last for two months!!!

[Bullet1987]

16. Well we don't know exactly when the loan she lent her campaign

has to be repayed.

[AtomicKitten]

13. Oh dear.

FREE RANDI RHODES

[Life Long Dem]

17. So when they have a good month as in Feb. they release

the figures before the end of the month (Feb 29th). But with these figures, they are slow to release the data. They must be hurting.

[johnnydrama]

18. wait...

Didn't the Clinton campaign say earlier today that "most" of the March money was for the primary?

From TPM earlier.

And now we've just heard from Clinton campaign spokesman Howard Wolfson who says that "almost all" of their $20 million was for the
primary too.

[ORDem]

19. K&R n/t

:kick:

[stahbrett]

20. Can someone explain why so many donors are giving to her general election campaign?

Hillary's chances of winning the nomination are pretty slim by all accounts, so I don't see why any supporter of hers would choose to give to a general election fund that will likely never be used, versus the primary fund which conceivably COULD be helpful.

[GarbagemanLB]

21. She keeps going back to loyal donors who are maxed out? They can only donate to the primary fund, th

en. (I believe)

[TomBall Democrat]

24. Doesn't make sense, does it?

I've heard some talk among her supporters that they had TROUBLE donating.

Maybe it's another mis-management issue - where they've not made it easy to contribute.


There seems to be communication void within the campaign. Must be frustrating for those who want to help not to be able to do so.

[george_maniakes]

26. She knows enough people who are rich enough where giving 2,300 hundred bucks doesnt hurt.

They probably get the money back anyways if she doesnt win, and they can afford to lose it if they dont. The fact that obama can devote so many resources compared to her though is going to hurt. His campaign so far has been waged on the ground with a lot of skill.

[4themind]

27. One possible reason is just to make her "look good"

With the headlines "hillary raised 20 million dollars", she betting that the average american either doesn't know about the difference between primary-set-aside-funds vs GE-earmarked-funds, or won't bother to check up on the information later (when it's required to be released). It could just be a strategy to make it seem like her campaign is meeting expectations and still running strong (to try to attract NEW donors)

[redqueen]

33. Cause they maxed out on donating to her primary fund.

And you never know what might happen at the convention...

[book_worm]

22. And she's going to be spending a big chunk of it on PA

and I'm sure she will pretty much ignore Montana and South Dakota. I don't see Hillary coming out of this ahead in pledged delegates or the popular vote.

[george_maniakes]

30. I think obama is pushing just hard enough in pennsylvania to make her devote more resources...

there then she can afford, and outflank her then in indiana and north carolina.

[TomBall Democrat]

35. If so, that's a smart strategy

It's what Bill Clinton did in Texas in 1992.

He knew he couldn't win Texas But he spent enough here to make George Bush have to spend here, depleting his war chest

Worked out well for Bill that year, hope the same is true to Barack this year.

[roseBudd]

25. Obama's donors are the American people, they are more numerous & not maxed out

[redqueen]

34. ...

:thumbsup:

[berni_mccoy]

28. And half of that will go to Mark Penn.

[stop the bleeding]

37. This sentence/word is the most telling

"We will have the resources that we need to compete,"

http://209.85.207.104/search?q=cache:BrRPH-VUBpcJ:www.englishpage.com/verbpage/futureperfect.html+will+have&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=1&gl=us

in other words they DON'T HAVE IT!


:beer:

[stop the bleeding]

40. .

:beer:

[Califooyah Operative]

41. That's pretty serious. They're in deep trouble.

They're basically broke after the debt. I don't think they're going to repay the Clinton loan and Mark Penn might be out of his money too. Most of their money they can't touch and will probably never get to because it's general election money.

[madrchsod]

46. they have to pay taxes or interest on that loan

[Zachstar]

49. They can replay the debt It is just the many other debts from the campaign that we hope will be paid

[Bigleaf]

42. Kicking. I can't wait for the 20th to arrive.

[madrchsod]

45. she can`t loan herself the money

because they don`t have enough. since she did`t go grassroots she lost steady income...and since she`s losing she is`t attracting new contributers..it`s sort of a slow spiral of going broke. if pa is really close she`s finished because no one is going to fund her...money goes to the winner not the loser

[ORDem]

47. The money is already drying up. She has so few donators compared to Big O.

And most of them are maxed out now for the primary, so they can only give to her GE fund. Funny how she releases her campaign's gross, but waits until the 20th, hoping no one notices what the actual split is.

:eyes: