If PA is close and its a blowout favoring Obama in NC, what then? Brainiacs, what say you?

[Bread and Circus]

Can any of you political superbrains tell me what Clinton will need to do if that becomes the case? I'm not very good at working the "delegate math".

/begs for help

:)

[NightWatcher]

1. it's all about Puerto Rico

:rofl:

[Bread and Circus]

4. LMAO out loud...that graphic caught me off guard...

[WillyT]

5. LOL !!!

:rofl:

[rocktivity]

7. DUzy!

What's Spanish for "When you move goalposts, you're supposed to move them CLOSER to you!"

:rofl:
rocknation

[sandnsea]

13. Now that's not fair

I've posted that twice now, and not gotten one laugh. :(

:hi:

[NightWatcher]

16. then I probably stole it from you

sorry

[sandnsea]

23. Well keep stealing it

You seem to be better at the caption! It's funny as hell.

[babylonsister]

2. Goalposts...getting heavier and heavier...

I think she'd have to bow out 'graciously'. Or not.

[sellitman]

9. 'graciously'?

You are funny.


:hi:

[Johnny__Motown]

3. She already needs a super majority of super delegates to support her, another 15 or 20 doesn't

change her strategy

[MindMatter]

22. Howard Dean, Moveon, etc have fundamentally changed the landscape

The Clintons are all about status quo inside the beltway. With the 50 state strategy, Dean has taken the legs out of many of the establishment types that the Clintons relied upon. A lot of people who are in Superdelegate positions this year are not the party old-timers that might have been there in past cycles.

With MoveOn and other organizations making a real difference at the grass roots level, even the insiders like Nancy Pelosi are starting to take the people very seriously.

Of course, Obama is the personality that has made all this come together, but the point is that we are seeing an amazing confluence of factors that are overwhelming the Clinton DLC crowd. We could not have written a better playbook.

[Spider Jerusalem]

6. She'll need to drop out. Because at that point, her chances go from 'slim' to 'none'.

She probably won't, though.

[malik flavors]

8. Well, if he makes it close where she's supposed to win big and he wins big where he should....

That says alot.

[mudesi]

10. It's already over. It was over a month ago.

The entire contest is completely irrelevant. She has lost.

[lisa58]

11. I luv du

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

12. It will be decreed that PA and NC don't matter.

And Acme Goalpost Movers, Inc., will be called in again -- but now they want their goalpost-moving fees up front, so Mark Penn will be reduced to quivering his jowls and whining about how there's no such thing as a pledged delegate.

[Shae]

18. except as of today

Mark Penn is no longer with the campaign.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

20. They finally sacked his fat ass? Probably too late...

[Shae]

24. he resigned

but on another thread, I was reading he would still be around in as pollster and adviser.
Wolfson is now her chief strategist.

[Barack_America]

14. OVA!

And not as in "ovum: plural".

;)

[Medusa]

15. The big Dog was in PR this weekend

they know that NC and PA aren't going to be the coup de grace they want them to be for HRC.

[backscatter712]

17. She's pretty much toast at that point.

I just did some playing with the sliders on Slate's Delegate Calculator. ( http://www.slate.com/id/2185278/ )

Assuming Clinton wins by 8 points in Pennsylvania, then gets trashed by 20+ points in N. Carolina, for all the remaining races, she'll have to win by 60+ point margins to catch up.

In other words, stick a fork in her - she's done.

[John Q. Citizen]

19. The best case scenario for the Dems is for Obama to win 2025+ in an election. That means

enough super delegates migrate to Obama so he goes over the line with elected pledged delegates from a state. If he does well in PA and NC, he may end up with enought to go over in OR or MT/SD.

At that point it will become moot if Hill stays or drops out because Obama will become the universally accepted presumed candidate. Many more will then move over to Obama, and Obama and the DNC can then work out the seating of the Florida and Michigan delegates.

[phrigndumass]

21. If PA is close and she loses NC big ...

... there would be no way for her to lead in "popular" vote and that faux argument would crumble. It's not about math anymore for Senator Clinton, it's about "electability." (btw, isn't the primary an election? Don't they prescribe electability to winning elections?)

Senator Obama needs only 63 more superdelegates out of 305 remaining (20.7%) to endorse him, in order to put the nomination officially out of reach of the Clinton campaign. The pledged delegates from upcoming contests will make up the rest of the 2,023.5 needed for Senator Obama beyond the 63 superdelegates needed.

[L0oniX]

25. PA and NC don't count ...it's the super delegates and what ever pledged delegates.....

that can be bribed to switch to Hillarat.

:evilgrin:

[ClayZ]

26. K and R