The Basic problem the Clinton campaign never faced.

[grantcart]

The old rule of polling that positives can be easily moved but that negatives are entrenched has been borne out by the Clinton campaign. It entered with high positives and high negatives. It foreshadowed a high minimum (floor) and a low maximum (ceiling).


The medium term polling shows that Clinton moves between that floor and ceiling but is stuck in the 42-47 range

With a broader view it is clear that since the begining of the year the same holds true. She has a floor of 42 and a ceiling of 47. When running in a three way race 42-47 looks huge. In a two person race it is second place. In three months Hillary has gained 3 points. Obama has gained 14.

[TexasObserver]

1. Hillary has a ceiling of around 45%, and that never changes.

She peaked last fall, and her ceiling is the reason she will never get the needed support to win in the fall. Obama will.

[OhioBlue]

9. very true. n/t

[Yael]

2. These don't take into account degrees

I really believe that for those who like her, her positives are very, very strong. Those who don't, her negatives are very very strong.

It is my contention that name recognition was not the positive she thought it was. Many people had their minds made up about her long ago and with that, she could only go down from there.

She could have played it positive and softened a bit to try to bring the negatives around, but she underestimated how strong those negatives were and when she went all Tanya Harding Kitchen Sink, the opposite happened and those who were giving her some benefit of the doubt locked in and the negatives started soaring. The lying didn't help matters either.

She sank her own campaign by being politically tone-deaf, IMO.

[XemaSab]

11. I'm not entirely agreeing with you

I think she has a lot of "soft" support.

I've argued before and I'll argue again that her name recognition makes her the "default" candidate in the minds of dems. People need a REASON to shift teams to Obama, but once they have that reason, they're gone.

[DaveT]

3. HRC's strategy was Super Tuesday, period.

When her huge advantages of brand name ID and money did not give her the nomination it was basically all over for her. Her only hope has been and will remain that Obama somehow melts down. That was never very likely, in spite of stupid media flurries about race or the flag or whatever. With each passing day it becomes less likely.

HRC's "appeal" was never based on any particular public policy issue or issues -- neither is Obama's. All the issues candidates have been routed from the field.

What is left is a personality contest with Obama representing something new and different and exciting while Hillary is still the same Brand Name she always was.

People criticize the the Clinton campaign based on the assumption that she had other options than putting all her eggs in the Super Tuesday basket. I think that is absurd. She had no other option -- and it came close to winning.

Politics ain't bean bag.

[grantcart]

4. The key to Super Tuesday was that there would still be 3 candidates

Had there still been 3 candidates in the race on Super Tuesday she probably would be ahead in delegates and now losing race after race - a true nightmare. Edwards leaving the race when he did helped save us from that fate.

[davidpdx]

8. I've said this about ten times...someone needs to write a book about this

Someone is going to have excellent material to write a book about this campaign. And I can't wait to hear the scoop in terms of what went on behind the scenes at the Hillary Clinton campaign. I'll be one of the first to buy that book.

[Tresalisa]

13. I'll be in line right behind you to buy it!

I'd also like to know more about the behind-the-scenes on the Obama campaign.

[davidpdx]

14. I just hope some decent author takes up the task of

trying to compile the information. It would even be interesting to see what went on behind the McCain campaign seeing as though it was pronounced dead last year and he came back to win the nomination. It would be almost like three different stories inter-weaved together in my opinion.

[grantcart]

16. the Clinton staffers are going to move fast if they are going to negotiate their

deals and have the books out by November. After that the market will be more interested in reading about the Obama administration. They could start tomorrow lol

[Johnny__Motown]

10. DOH

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=saBU6ux0hsQ

[azmouse]

5. K&R

[azmouse]

6. delete

[grantcart]

7. kick

[Zachstar]

12. The problem is that if she does not close this opening sometime soon it will stay open

Because it will indicate that she is losing support rapidly and more will come around.

Overall it looks like it is becoming less and less likely that she can make the case that she is the stronger and more electable candidate. And many supers have declared that they will support the pledged delegate nominee.

PA is very likely her last chance to end this massive streak of fail and give her a week of reprieve before from momentum. Yet once that feeling goes away she will be right back to where she is today.

If she fails to win big in PA I just don't see her recovering in the polls.

[thereismore]

15. It is very obvious where Edwards' supporters went. nt

[Araxen]

17. K&R

:kick: