North Carolina: Obama 49, Clinton 39

[jackson_dem]

Clinton is holding steady. If she wins Pennsylvania the momentum could slingshot her to a North Carolina win, which would be huge since she will win Indiana the same day and thrash Obama the following week in West Virginia, where she currently has a 2:1 lead over him.

-snip-

With four weeks life to the primary, Barack Obama is 10 points atop Hillary Clinton, exactly where Obama was two months ago, according to a SurveyUSA tracking poll conducted exclusively for ABC11 Eyewitness News.

SurveyUSA's interactive tracking graphs show remarkable stability within the sub-populations. Among men, over the past 2 months, Obama led by 18, by 13, and today by 15 points. Among women, Obama led by 2, by 3, and today by 6 points.

Among whites, Clinton led by 19, by 17, and today by 22 points. Among blacks, Obama led by 65, by 61, and today by 75 points. Obama has gained ground in Raleigh, where he led by 8 points last month and by 18 points today. The contest remains effectively tied in Charlotte, with Clinton now sea-sawing past Obama, but still within sampling error.

39% Clinton
49% Obama
7% Other
5% Undecided

http://abclocal.go.com/wtvd/story?section=news/local&id=6068525

[PBS Poll-435]

1. Add a little momentum from PA and two good debate performances....

And Hillary could shut out Obama for the rest of the season.

Wishful thinking maybe, but I have hope!

[GarbagemanLB]

3. 'maybe'?

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

[PBS Poll-435]

7. Well..

PA & Indiana are in the bag.

Oregon & North Carolina are the only two question marks left. And they are only ten points away....

It isn't that impossible...

[GarbagemanLB]

10. Most polls in PA show a less than 10 point lead...yet you say OR/NC is in play yet PA is not...

[jackson_dem]

12. Yeah we can't take PA for granted

I would give Obama a 30-40% chance of winning PA and probably a 70% chance in NC if he loses PA and 90% if he wins PA. If he wins PA he will probably also take Indiana.

[PBS Poll-435]

18. Yeah...the key is PA. But, barring disaster it will be anywhere from

5-15 points minimum.

[democrattotheend]

61. If he wins PA it's over

Even the Clinton supporters I know agree with that assessment. It's unlikely that he will win PA but if he does it's over.

[PBS Poll-435]

66. I can agree with that

[jackson_dem]

69. I agree with that as well

[Zachstar]

14. Indiana is not "in the bag"

And if your post was to make any sense then Clinton ought to have won in the last two states and blown out in Texas.

Obama turned a huge expected win in PA to a slightly possible win for his campaign.

[PBS Poll-435]

20. Sorry....If Clinton wins PA. Indiana is in the bag

It is a regional thing.

[yellowcanine]

32. Regional? Indiana and Pennsylvania? How so?

I have never heard anyone describe Indiana and Pennsylvania as being in the region politically. PA is in the Northeast region. Indiana is part of the Midwest region. The only region they could be considered to share is the Great Lakes Region which is much more of a geographic region than political region.

[PBS Poll-435]

36. Rust Belt

[PBS Poll-435]

39. Here is what I am talking about -

And one for fun...

[yellowcanine]

44. Bullcrap. PA and Indiana hardly ever vote the same way in competitive

Presidential elections. PA goes Dem.; Indiana goes Repub.

[PBS Poll-435]

46. Be we aren't talking about Presidential Elections -

We are talking about the freakin' primary.

(recent polling in IN would tend to favor my arguement)

[jackson_dem]

70. and Indiana is demographically even more favorable to Clinton than PA

The only thing that gives Obama a shot in Indiana is being from neighboring Illinois and about one third of Indiana being in the Chicago media market.

[yellowcanine]

100. I don't see how. Indiana is a solid red state and Obama has done better in red states than Clinton.

And Clinton and her supporters have actually made much of the fact that Obama has done better in many red states while Clinton has done better in many blue states. Can't have it both ways.

[Zachstar]

62. That has nothing to do with anything.

The reason yall lost many states is this "In the bag" view. It makes yall lazy when supporting your candidate in my view.

[jackson_dem]

11. Plausible

Let's look at the remaining states/territories.

PA: Clinton is likely to win

IN: Clinton is likely to win
NC: Clinton has a shot if she can get momentum out of PA

WV: Clinton will win big

KY: Clinton will win big
OR: Clinton is down only 10 in this state which is favorable to Obama and if she can win three of the four, or all four, states prior to the 5/20 states she has an excellent chance of erasing that 10 point Oregon lead.

Puerto Rico: Clinton is likely to win big

Montana/South Dakota: These are wild cards but if things go as described above she has a very good chance of taking these two states just as Obama used his momentum to take Wisconsin by 17 points.

Is it likely? No. Is it possible? Definitely. That is why she is staying in. :)

[loveangelc]

35. Hillary will not win NC on momentum. It just won't happen.

I'm willing to bet money on it, because momentum really doesnt mean anything. I dont think people are going to go "oh, look, Hillary has momentum, I guess I'll vote for her now."

[Zachstar]

63. Good point!

Momentum meant nothing in the last 2 states Obama has won so far. So there is no proof Clinton can get many votes based on momentum.

Also note that Clinton's funds have slowed to a crawl in my view. Obama is pulling in large funds and doing lots of work while Clinton is having problems.

[jackson_dem]

72. Look at those states. One was a caucus and the other has the largest AA population

Mississippi has the largest black population (as a percentage) of any state. Obama got 90% of the black vote there, which accounted for a majority of Dem primary voters. Do the math. She never had a shot in either. If anything she did better than expected in Wyoming...

[jackson_dem]

71. Did you miss Wisconsin?

Obama won Wisconsin big on momentum.

Clinton is unlikely to win NC but momentum is the only thing that gives her a shot.

[loveangelc]

80. I think Obama was going to win Wisconsin as long as this race stayed competitive.

it's a very anti war state, and people my age vote in greater number than almost anywhere else...

[jackson_dem]

83. Are you from Wisconsin?

Clinton was leading Wisconsin until Obama reeled off 2/9 and 2/12.

http://www.pollster.com/08-WI-Dem-Pres-Primary.php

[loveangelc]

85. She led in one poll in the middle of January when everyone still believed she was (somewhat)

inevitable. You look at the demographics of a state to see how it will vote in a primary. I can guarantee you, even if Obama were to somehow win Pennsylvania, then win Indiana and North Carolina, West Virginia would still go to Hillary Clinton.

[jackson_dem]

86. The demographics were in her favor, southern WI (next to IL) being excepted

That is why Obama's Wisconsin win was such a big deal. The thinking at the time was "If Clinton couldn't win Wisconsin where can she win?".

I am glad you are a rare Obamite who admits the obvious: demographics influence voting.

[loveangelc]

88. Of course they do. I also knew he would win Virginia overwhelmingly, Northern Va

is very much different than what it use to be (I don't live there but I visit a lot because a lot of family live there). People think it's crazy to think this, but I think Obama is definitely competitive in VA in November!

I don't live in Wisconsin, but I expected him to win Wisconsin; I don't think it has the same type of people as Ohio.

[jackson_dem]

89. Yes but that isn't enough

Webb, Warner and Kaine won big in Northern Virginia. Yet overall Webb won by a whisker, Warner by 5 and Kaine by 6. I think Virginia will become a Democratic state in a decade or two but the only way a Democrat wins it in 2008 is as part of a national landslide. The difference between Obama and those three as they were able to tailor their views to the state. Obama can't do that. Obama will win that part of the state, like Kerry did, but he will get killed downstate (as would Clinton).

[loveangelc]

92. I think there is a lot of excitement for Obama in Va. Lynchburg, Portsmouth, Richmond,

Virginia Beach are all in mid or southern VA, and I think Obama will do extremely well in those areas and those are where the people live. McCain is going to have to spend money in VA, and that is a great thing imo.

[jackson_dem]

4. Yup...

I am out of threads but an Oregon poll is out today too and Obama's lead is far smaller than expected. He leads by 10 there. He won Washington by 37...

[Zhade]

6. Hey, I respect your honesty that it's wishful thinking.

You're far more honest than the proven liar you support.

[PBS Poll-435]

8. Well look who went and put text in the message box!

I guess you can speak! :-)

[movonne]

15. Well I hope he ask her about the columbia trade deal...

[underpants]

2. now SHE is closing

:wow:

[book_worm]

5. good! Obama leads in NC by 10-23 points according to what poll

and Oregon by 10-plus!

[jackson_dem]

13. 10+? You mean 10 exactly. There is only one OR poll since January

He leads by 10--exactly 10--in that poll.

[loveangelc]

38. since when is 10 points a small lead? It' gone up since susa's last poll

and aren't you the person who is predicting hillary would win pennsylvania by over 20 points?

[jackson_dem]

75. It isn't but there is a difference between "10 plus" and 10 exactly

"10 plus" implies 14, 16 and that is simply misleading. There is one Oregon poll since January and Obama leads by 10--much less than expected...

I never predicted that. I always thought the margin would come down after Obama flooded the airwaves in PA, just like it did in Ohio and Texas. The fact Clinton was able to win Ohio and Texas is amazing since Obama outspent her, I believe, 3:1 there...

[cali]

9. Dream

on.

[rodeodance]

34. You Obama folks do not own the copyright for dreaming--so yes I will

[PoliticalAmazon]

53. You do seem to own the copyright on criticizing others for having hopes and dreams....

...and then flipping and claiming it for yourselves.

[PresidentObama]

16. Obama's closing the gap in PA, leading in NC. Do the math, it's over!

[PBS Poll-435]

19. Then why are you so worried about it?

[PresidentObama]

25. Who said I was worried? It's over, with or without Mike Hucka...I mean Hillary in the race.

[PBS Poll-435]

27. Ok...then this should be a peaceful time for you!

[PresidentObama]

28. It sure is. Minus Hillary and her kitchen sink politics.

[PBS Poll-435]

31. Better than the compost heap...

[Zachstar]

64. Because of the congressional situation prodn2000!

Or did you forget that again

[PBS Poll-435]

65. LOL - right...

We must stop democracy so that we can save it!

How silly of me!

[Zachstar]

67. What is wrong with you? NOTHING is preventing the remaining states from voting.

The vote does not stop because just one Candidate remains.

They don't tell NC. Sorry but we closed down the voting because there is but one candidate!

Stop pushing that stop democracy crap.

And yes Congress is more important right now. Republicans are working HARD to retake seats across the board and we need to work on getting a large filibuster proof majority!

[PBS Poll-435]

68. Sure thing ---

Two candidates = high turnout

One candidate - not so much

[jackson_dem]

76. Over 4 million Dems are now registered in PA thanks to the Clinton-Obama fight

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/04/08/voter_rolls_swell_in_pennsylvania.html

If we keep this up and as long as the fight remains fairly clean, as it has recently, and ends by June it may actually help us in November.

[PBS Poll-435]

90. It is definitely going to help us.

Get people involved and knowledgeable now. We may not have the same chance in October.

[totodeinhere]

22. Nobody is worried about it but we do want to get the facts straight.

[PoliticalAmazon]

54. Sam Sedar just said he's convinced the Dem primary is over. n/t

[PBS Poll-435]

55. He also does fake Katherine Harris interviews -

What part of his show is news and what part is entertainment?

[MadBadger]

17. Fine by me, Obama was up 49-41 in the last poll.

[PresidentObama]

26. So she's losing ground? Didn't see that in the OP's spin.

[yellowcanine]

21. But Clinton is not "holding steady" in PA so the scenario doesn't quite work.

If she barely wins PA or even loses PA there will be no "slingshot." And Indiana is no done deal for her either. Lot of wishful thinking here.

You could just as well say Obama is "holding steady" in NC and gaining in PA. How is that good news for Clinton?

[PBS Poll-435]

23. Have you seen today's SUSA poll for PA?

[yellowcanine]

42. Yes it appears to be an outlier - all other polls show major Clinton slippage over the past several

weeks.

[PBS Poll-435]

43. Only one way to find out -

4/22

[yellowcanine]

48. Actually no - we have the other poll results now. It is an outlier from them.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_democratic_primary-240.html#polls

Regardless of what happens on 4/22 the SUSA poll is by definition an outlier when compared to all of the other polls.

[PBS Poll-435]

50. They have been the most accurate this season.

I am gonna go with them. Rasputin, on the other hand, has been pretty bad. Especially Ohio.

[yellowcanine]

56. So you say. Show me the data (all the contests, not just Ohio)

You made the claim, back it up.

[PBS Poll-435]

59. A few ones....

Rasmussen 02/25 - 02/25 862 LV 48 43 Clinton +5.0
Rasmussen 02/28 - 02/28 851 LV 47 45 Clinton +2.0
Rasmussen 03/02 - 03/02 858 LV 50 44 Clinton +6.0 ---> This one was pretty good, but it was 2 days before the election


Quinnipiac 02/06 - 02/12 564 LV 55 34 Clinton +21.0 --> Got Clinton's number right
Quinnipiac 02/27 - 03/02 799 LV 49 45 Clinton +4.0 ---> Not bad

SurveyUSA 02/10 - 02/11 720 LV 56 39 Clinton +17.0 ---> Nearly 1 month out
SurveyUSA 03/01 - 03/02 873 LV 54 44 Clinton +10.0 ---> Nailed it


Reuters/CSpan/Zogby 03/01 - 03/03 828 LV 44 44 Tie ---> Not too good...
Reuters/CSpan/Zogby 02/29 - 03/02 761 LV 45 47 Obama +2.0 ---> Close...

[yellowcanine]

97. So I say show more than just Ohio and it looks as if you showed me Ohio?

Though I can't be sure since you did not put any states with it...
This is your idea of providing a definitive data set to back up a sweeping claim?

[jackson_dem]

30. Remember Ohio?

Obama's ad blitz was bound to have an affect. There are 2 weeks left and both are advertising. All she needs is to gain about 5 points to have a solid win.

[TomClash]

24. She's slipping in Pennsylvania

Quinnipiac has up only 50-44, Rasmussen 48-43. In March the same polls had her up 12-13 points.

In NC, Barack has a pretty comfortable lead in all polls.

[rodeodance]

37. Of couse she was higher before Obamacamp moved in. anyone knows that.

[TomClash]

45. "Obamacamp?"

Here we go again. :eyes:

[gaiilonfong]

29. This is Taylor Marsh propaganda NONSENSE

Hillary will NOT EVER win NC

SUSA is really wrong these days....

[jackson_dem]

33. Why do you think NC is a lock for Obama?

[PBS Poll-435]

41. Show me a wildly inaccurate SUSA poll from this cycle...

[Tropics_Dude83]

49. Missouri-Feb 4, 2008-Clinton-54%-Obama-43% n/t

[PBS Poll-435]

52. Well there you go -

That one is pretty bad! :-)

[yellowcanine]

57. So this refutes your claim that SUSA has been most accurate this cycle then?

Maybe only in states where it "counts"? Meaning the ones Clinton won?

[PBS Poll-435]

60. No...there is a chart going around that shows they were are the best this cycle.

I will see if I can find it.

[yellowcanine]

98. You do that. I can wait.

[jackson_dem]

79. Super Tuesday was a wild card. You can cherry pick one ST state from any firm

How about the stand alone states (IA, NH, SC) or the primaries held in conjunction with a few others (beltway trimary, Wisconsin/Hawaii, Ohio/Texas/with VT and RI as the undercard)?

[yellowcanine]

99. You mean kind of like you all do with Ohio and SUSA for 3/4/2008?

I guess it isn't "cherrypicking" if it favors your candidate?

[rodeodance]

40. REC

[jefferson_dem]

74. Me too. Obama up by double digits is terrific.

Seems we agree.

:kick:

[loveangelc]

47. would you contend that Hillary probably needs to win NC to remain competitive?

[jackson_dem]

81. No. She has very little chance there

About 30% of North Carolina voters will be African-American. Obama got 90% black support in the last state with a large black population (MS). 90% of 30% is 27%. He only needs 33% of the white vote to win NC. Clinton's only chance is to hold him to 80-85% of the black vote and win 65-70% of the white vote. That is a tall order, although not impossible. She won 63% of whites in Ohio, including 73% of white Dems. In MS she won 75% of whites. The only places where she has gotten 70% white support, aside from presumably New York, have been southern states* (MS, Louisiana, Tennessee). This gives some hope that she can do the same in North Carolina.

*In SC she beat Obama among whites only 36-24 but that was with Edwards taking 40%. In the South in many states Edwards' vote has transferred over to Clinton.

[PoliticalAmazon]

51. Wasn't it Bill Clinton who said NC would be important? n/t

[jackson_dem]

84. It will matter, especially since it conceivably could be the only state left O will win

;)

That is unlikely but again is evidence of why the calls for Clinton to quit are nonsense. You don't leave the field if you enter the fourth quarter down 10 points. Clinton has a good chance of winning Pennsylvania, Indiana and is a near lock in West Virginia, Kentucky, and Puerto Rico. Obama is the favorite in North Carolina and Oregon. South Dakota and Montana are wild cards. It is assumed that Obama will win them because he won Wyoming, Idaho, and North Dakota but those states had sham caucuses. South Dakota and Montana will be primaries and will be heavily influenced by what the states immediately before it do. If Clinton enters them having won 5 of 7 or 6 of 7 (Oregon is far closer than expected right now) she would have a good chance in S. Dakota and Montana.

[thevoiceofreason]

58. Another SUSA poll

They sampled using 32% of the vote total being AA. Is that accurate? I don't know, so it's not a criticism. Their total sample was 725, so at least that is better than Pennsylvania. I would bet the truth in NC lies between this one and the 20-25% margin polls.

[jefferson_dem]

73. LOL. Only you (and your Hillary-lovin' pals) could spin a double-digit Hillary deficit

into "holding steady".

She will lose NC by double-digits. Feel free to bookmark.

[jackson_dem]

82. -8 to -10 isn't "holding steady"? Under what convulated definition?

That is well within the margin of error. If she loses PA she will lose NC badly.

[Cali_Democrat]

77. Keep Spinning!!!

[loveangelc]

78. NORTH CAROLINAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

http://youtube.com/watch?v=-26bRZEedZg :P middle school ~jam~ haha

[MattNC]

91. classic tune!

it's becoming the unofficial state anthem for us younger folk in the state

[loveangelc]

94. haha yes!

[AX10]

87. K & R!

Seeing that abomination has taken over this thread, someone reasonable has to come in to rec' this post.

[MattNC]

93. He is not going to lose NC

barring a shocking development of some kind. It won't even be close. Many parts of this state are a microcosm of his base where he will dominate her, and she won't be able to make up the ground with wins in lower-populated Appalachia and the rural areas in the Piedmont and Eastern Plain.

[Raine]

95. Looking good for Obama!

:bounce:

[NC_Nurse]

96. There is no way she'll win NC.