Obama dramatically ups the ante in Pennsylvania - Unprecedented Ad Buys

[grantcart]

According to reports Obama is dramatically increasing pressure on Senator Clinton's campaign by making unprecedented ad buys in Pennsylvania and also sharpening the criticism against Clinton's Mark Penn. The effect will be to force Clinton's campaign to chose to try and match the resources currently being spent in Pennsylvania and leave the other upcoming states bare or try and compete in all states and hope that her huge lead in Pennsylvania holds up.




Boston Globe Reports
http://www.boston.com/news/politics/politicalintelligence/2008/04/obamas_unpreced.html

Obama's unprecedented Pennsylvania ad buy

PHILADELPHIA -- If, as has been widely predicted, Barack Obama loses Pennsylvania, it will not be for lack of effort.

Obama is currently spending $2.2 million per week on television here, over twice what Hillary Clinton is spending and an unprecedented ad buy in Pennsylvania, according to Democratic media consultant Neil Oxman, who is not working for a candiadte.

"Nobody has ever spent 2.2 million in this state: not Rendell, not Specter, not Casey, not Santorum, not Bush, not Kerry," said Oxman, naming the best-funded candidates to run statewide in recent years. "That's unbelievable."




Talking Points Memo Reports
http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/04/obama_campaign_ratchets_up_pre.php
Obama Campaign Ratchets Up Pressure On Hillary To Ax Mark Penn
By Greg Sargent - April 8, 2008, 12:40PM

After leaving this to surrogates for a couple days, the Obama campaign is ratcheting up the pressure on onetime Hillary chief strategist to ax Mark Penn once and for all, in the apparent hope that keeping Penn front and center will weaken her grip on her base of blue collar voters in Pennsylvania and other remaining states.

On an Obama campaign conference call moments ago, the Obama camp rolled out high-profile labor supporter James Hoffa, the president of the International Brotherhood of Teamsters, who called on the Clinton camp to end Penn's association completely.

"You can't have a guy on your payroll who's lobbying for Colombia," Hoffa said, adding that it was time for her to "end his services completely." He blasted Penn for "taking money from a foreign nation" to boost the free trade agreement that "she says she's going to vote against."

Hoffa added that Penn was a continuing drain on Hillary's "credibility," claiming that Penn is "still calling the shots," which is certainly debatable -- while Penn is still playing a role, obviously, Geoff Garin has taken over as senior strategist.

One other interesting nugget from the call: Hoffa referred to some internal polling that he claimed showed that Obama's race was not resonating as an issue among union members.

[McCamy Taylor]

1. Just pay them to vote Obama.

[Egnever]

3. not a bad idea

if it puts hillary down once and for all it can only be good.

[cliffordu]

13. YEP - absolutely.

[MadBadger]

6. So? Its not like Mitt Romney using his own money to try and buy the election

its one of his 1.4 million donors, that is who is paying for this.

[ORDem]

29. Exactly! Obama has shown great skill in building a large grass-roots donor base.

So, we should fault him for this?

[grantcart]

9. How predictable

Yes that's right one of America's best known political brands that has occupied the White House and has dominated the news for 20 years is unable to keep up with the kid from Illinois who has a funny name, many think is a Muslim and nobody heard of a year ago.


She can't raise the money to fight him and now all her supporters can do is cry foul because he has amassed more resources and had better stewardship of them - all marks of true leadership.


I didn't hear you crying foul when Hillary Clinton started this campaign with huge money advantages back in November.


Pathetic.

[Pavlovs DiOgie]

26. Well said!

You hit the nail right on the head!

[Lucky 13]

30. She's always the victim.

Good post.
:thumbsup:

[redqueen]

48. ...

:thumbsup:

[nebula]

10. More whining from the Hillary camp

[donheld]

12. Are you still claiming you don't have a candidate?

[thoughtcrime1984]

20. I didn't believe him/her then and I don't now

Just admit it. We really don't mind.

[Alter Ego]

47. This is in no way a bitter, misguided response to a mere

statement of facts. :eyes:

If he can afford the ad blitz then he should go for it. I'd bet dollars to donuts that you'd be saying "THAT'S MY GAL" if it were Hillary doing this.

[WA98296]

58. IF her campaign was well funded, she would buy more ads.

[Egnever]

2. This is her last shot.

Its over already but if he holds or beats her in PA she has nothing left to stand on. Of course it will take being dragged out kicking and screaming for hillary to go home.

[grantcart]

11. I would be real curious to see how her fund raising is going

Isn't that Elton John concert happening this Friday?

[rodeodance]

25. yuo don't know how to goggle her website??

[grantcart]

33. yeah but they don't give me the totals

maybe you could ask your 'handler'? lol

boy you are indefatigable lol

[Cha]

70. It happened tonight and elton john of all people

called some Americans misogynists and told us we could go to hell.!!

I guess they made about $2.5 mil..

[harun]

65. I am hearing radio spots every day for Obama, I think he is working on

beating her in PA, which I think he will. Then he shouldn't have to spend much more, she will drop or at least stop the propaganda war against him. If she doesn't the party leadership will probably force her to.

[MadBadger]

4. Something tells me their internals dont match up with SUSA

They are going for the knockout blow.

[grantcart]

7. Hoffa's comment was interesting about race not being a big factor

I think its the kind of thing that could backfire on Clinton. Its one thing for people to be a little uncomfortable about Obama and not put their finger on it. Its completely different thing to insinuate that the people of Pennsylvania are racist and that Obama is 'unelectable'. Puts him back in the underdog role and people may tend to vote along a racial line but they don't like to be characterized that way.

There is another demographic that I have been wondering about: The Clinton supporter who now wants it over. In Ohio and Texas Clinton supporters thought that Obama was going to be the nominee. Some of these people are going to stay home or even vote for Obama just to help the party stop the infighting.

[democrattotheend]

35. I hope not

It's too risky.

[redqueen]

52. ...

:wtf:

How is that, do you think?

[woolldog]

5. This is about the GE.

PA will be the most important state in November (in Obama's GE strategy), so he's spending liberally in PA now. This isn't just about the primary anymore. It's about building a "brand name" for the GE.

[flor de jasmim]

8. why "THE" most important state?

[woolldog]

14. Looking at various GE scenarios

for an Obama v. McCain matchup.

I'm unable to come up with any realistic scenarios where Obama can top 270 without winning PA. I'm assuming he'll lose Florida and Ohio and MO (the Wright incident really hurt his numbers there). And between OH, FL, PA, I think he has a realistic chance of winning PA and the best between those 3. You have to win one of those 3 states.

So 2 reasons:

1. It's not like CA or NY where you can just assume it will vote democratic.

2. If PA's 21 electoral votes go to McCain, it will be almost impossible for Obama to make up those votes elsewhere, given the math.

He would HAVE to win VA, CO, NV and all the north-eastern states including NH--which leaves no room for error as NH and VA and even NV, for example, aren't a lock. If he wins PA, he has some margin for error. He can then lose NV and VA and still win. He can win or lose MO. He could lose NV, VA, and NH and tie McCain at 269 electoral votes and ultimately win when the decision goes to Congress

I think it's so critical that it should factor into his VP selection.

[BzaDem]

15. He really needs PA and OH.

No one has won the presidency without 2 of PA, OH, or FL since 1960 I think.

If he fails to win OH, he must make it up by switching 3 repub-leaning states to blue. This is a huge gamble he probably won't win. Winning any one of them? Probably possible. But winning all 3? That leaves no room for error.

He needs to win PA and OH.

[woolldog]

17. He only needs 1 of the 2.

That's my point. If he wins only Ohio, he only needs to flip CO, which is very realistic. If he wins PA, he only needs to flip either CO or NV (tie which goes to Congress).

This is assuming he loses in VA, MO, SD....and that he wins IA and holds on to the other blue states. I'm talking about the bare minimum required to win here. Of course, I think he can put other states in play and I wouldn't advocate ignoring OH or MO or some of the mid-western states or pursuing a bare-minimum strategy. But looking at it that way does show why comparatively more resources should go into PA.

[democrattotheend]

36. He needs Colorado and Iowa

But getting Iowa back should not be that hard. Kerry only lost it by 10,000 votes.

[woolldog]

46. He can win w/o Iowa or Colorado. For example,

if he carries both Ohio and PA.

If he loses Ohio (20 votes), he can make that up by winning IA, CO, and NV, which is reasonable.

But I agree they are extremely important. And he has a very good chance at both.

edit: to add a map

[Hawkeye-X]

63. Colorado is Obama county

It'll go for him in the GE. We've got some downticket Democrats that could REALLY benefit from Obama's leadership.

Rep. Mark Udall running for the U.S. Senate vs Big Oil Bob Schaeffer
Hank Eng running for the District 6 open seat (Xenophobe is retiring)
There is an open primary which will be settled for District 2 (Polis v FitzGerald)
And I would not be surprised if they decide to spend $ unseating Lamborn and Musgrave.

If that happens with Obama on the top of the ticket, I ensure a Colorado sweep for the Democratic Party.

[SoCalDem]

49. He doesn't "need" PA or FL or OH

and if Bob Barr gets in, we could end up with GA & AK





The Bob Barr Effect.. and without MI



Worst case

[woolldog]

57. I would've agreed with you a couple of months ago.

That's the MO+VA strategy. But have you taken a look at his numbers in MO? It's not a good idea to rely on MO + VA. For example, what happens if he wins MO but not VA or vice versa? Then he's screwed. Not a good idea.

If he picks Webb as VP it would help in both MO and VA, but until then no. The single most important state will be PA. He needs either OH, PA, or FL.

As for the Bob Barr effect, I don't think it's a good idea to design strategy based on whether or not Bob Barr enters the race. It's also very unclear that he would have any measurable impact on the race in the south.

edit: That last map of yours is NOT a worst-case scenario. It's one of the best cases. Worst case is losing either VA or MO. It's NOT a sound strategy to bank on winning BOTH of those states, which is what you're doing.

[flor de jasmim]

21. Thanks -

[mckeown1128]

32. Picking a Virginia VP would be his best shot...

I am of the mind that he should focus outside of PA unless of course if McCain picks Romney for VP... in which case Nevada and Colorado become mush more difficult for Obama.

[grantcart]

34. good point and they have several choices there

[woolldog]

44. No offense, but that's a horrible idea

If he wins VA, loses OH, PA, MO and FL but wins CO, IA, NH, he will win 270-268.

That leaves NO margin for error and would be an extremely risky (and not a smart) strategy. If for example, he failed to carry New Hampshire (4 electoral votes) under that scenario, he would lose to McCain 272-268.

PA is a must win state.

[dansolo]

23. I think it is the largest swing state with his best chance of winning

If you consider the swing states of FL, OH, PA, WI, VA, and MO. PA is a key piece to getting the electoral votes to win. He wins that, and FL and OH don't matter so much.

[AllentownJake]

38. PA is not a Swing state

We haven't voted for the GOP in a Presidential race since 1988.

[woolldog]

45. It's a swing state in this election.

And that's all that matters.

[AllentownJake]

50. It is not

It wasn't in 2000, it wasn't in 2004. The democratic nominee will get 55% of the vote here regardless of who it is.

[woolldog]

53. That's crazy.

Kerry didn't get 55%. He won by less than 150k votes out of more than 5 million cast. Without the numbers run up in Philly, he would've lost.

[AllentownJake]

59. 2008

Is a lot different than 2004. We just added 336,000 new democrats and the registrations haven't finished processing yet.

[BumRushDaShow]

60. Whoever is the Dem will ALWAYS get a numbers run-up from Philly.

They just need to ask and the turnout will be produced. Plus it was just reported that all the rim counties are now majority Dem (Chester and Delaware Counties confirmed today).

[woolldog]

62. I know.

However, Kerry ran up a +400K vote margin in Philly and only won PA by 140K out of 5.7 million votes cast. What does that tell you?

[BzaDem]

16. Assuming he's the nominee, I'm a little worried that he's spending so much money now.

He's spending so much on a state that he probably won't win in the primary. I really hope he's tailoring his ads to help with the GE too.

[grantcart]

18. legally speaking he must spend all of the primary money before the convention

[BzaDem]

19. I thought most of it was transferable to the GE.

One article said that. Maybe not though, as that leaves open big loopholes in campaign finance law.

[grantcart]

27. I was curious so I emailed an attorney who is an expert on FEC

and he said the money had to be returned - although at the time you return it I suppose you could ask if they want to put it into a PAC or use it for the general campaign.

Its a problem that I don't think has ever actually come up before because candidates almost always quit because they don't have enough money.


The other question I asked in which no one could answer was if Clinton was the vice presidential candidate would she have to use the money that she got for the GE as president for the team. no one knew.

[Lucky 13]

31. I think it has to do with individual donors and how much they give when...

So people can donate something like up to $2300 for the primary and up to $2300 for the general and that's it.

If someone gives $2300 during the primary, it is up to the candidate when it is to be used - during the primary or general.

If someone gives $4600 up front, during the primary, Obama can only spend $2300 during the primary and must hold on to the other $2300 for the general.

Does that sound right?

[TeamJordan23]

43. He is looking long term at the General Election

Good to get your name and brand out there right now.

[Life Long Dem]

22. Oh yeah it will... deep into the pockets... it will..

[JimGinPA]

24. I Just Saw A New Obama Ad This Morning In Central PA...

That makes seven different ads I've seen here since the weekend before the registration deadline here. A lot of them have aired during the highest ratings programs/

[grantcart]

28. how do you rate them?

radio ads?
print?

do you see a lot of ads on your computer as you surf?

[Thrill]

37. Hillary should be thankful he is classy. He could be running negative ads

But he doesn't go that route. He would be winning there by now if he wanted to go negative

[BumRushDaShow]

61. Clinton started up a negative radio ad here in Philly today.

Attacked him on his oil lobbyist claim from his earlier ads. They are getting desperate.

[Lugnut]

39. I'm seeing a lot of them.

I'm in NE PA.

[democrattotheend]

42. What's your sense in NE PA?

Is it as much Clinton Country as the polls suggest? Have you seen any campaign activity on either side? Have you been involved with any campaigning (I don't know which candidate you support but I am curious either way).

[Lugnut]

64. NE PA does seem to be Clinton Country

At least in the Scranton area. I don't support either candidate so no campaigning for me. I've seen more Obama commercials on WNEP than Clinton commercials but I haven't seen much signage anywhere around here from either candidate.

[wowimthere]

40. His ad buys make up for clinton's name recognition... he's in it to win it.

GOBAMA! No more war mongers in the whitehouse... doesn't matter what party it is.

[democrattotheend]

41. I think calling her a warmonger is a little harsh

I have given her plenty of grief for voting for the Iraq War, but I still don't believe she would have started the war if she had been president.

[redqueen]

54. I don't know...

I would have said the same thing before I knew she was going on talk shows 10 months into the war, and spreading the White House's lies about Iraq.

I would have said the same thing before she decided not to make her earmarks public.

But now...

[Major Hogwash]

73. 6 months ago, what was her position on Iraq? Kyl/Lieberman? On Kerry's proposal for a timeline?

On Murtha's withdrawal of the troops to Kuwait, to get them out of the "line of fire"?

Her positions have changed like the spring winds, they go every which away.

[Catchawave]

51. For a job that pays 400k/year ?

How progressive :silly:

[redqueen]

55. Fresh talking points!

Get 'em while they're hot, folks!

You too can sound like the Popular Kids on the M$M!

:bounce:

[Political Heretic]

56. People acting like his ability to spend money is a bad thing are lunatics.

The only reason Clinton supporters complain or ridicule the Obama campaign for spending money is because the Clinton campaign doesn't have any. If it did, it would be spending as much as I could, and no Clinton supporter would oppose it.

The fact that the Obama campaign has huge amounts of money to spend is reflective on the stunning, superb campaign they have run - it goes directly to leadership, and to electability. Every time Clinton decries being "outspent 4 to 1" I cheer - yet another example of better leadership, better execution, better reception, and better management - all factors of better electability.

[grantcart]

66. winning with class is all that counts everything else is details

[cooolandrew]

67. I think after the NAFTA ad in Ohio a response ad is the rule of karma, I'd say..

[anonymous171]

68. I wish he would hit her on her NAFTA connections. But he won't go that negative.

Damn.

[Cha]

69. Time to send some

more money to help Obama up the ante!

http://my.barackobama.com/page/s/volunteerinpa3

[grantcart]

71. great idea

[Major Hogwash]

72. She's going to get blasted in Pennsylvania over Penn. How ironic!!

Nobody here in Idaho knew about Ida, but I'm sure someone will step up to deny that Ida's influence was just as volatile here as Penn is there.

LoL