Stephanopolis: Hillary has to pull and upset in NC.

[loveangelc]

I remember on This Week, Stephanopolis saying if Obama wins both or splits the May 6th states that many Democrats will see the race as being virtually over. I also remember someone saying, I think a superdelegate on another show, saying that he would venture to say whoever wins the NC primary will be the nominee. Also, Chuck Todd once said May 6th was D-Day because after NC, many democrats will decide who to be for. Chuck Todd also said that Hillary has to win a state she was not expected to win, and many superdelegates are looking to see if she can pull off a win in NC.

So imo, Hillary really needs to pull off an upset in NC to have any chance of staying in the race with any real credibility. If she doesn't, I think she should get out. Whether or not she does is unknown, but I'm pretty sure a big chunk of the superdelegates will be making their choice known after May 6th.

[Tom Rinaldo]

1. I think she either has to win NC or come close there, but if she doesn't win NC

outright she then will need to win Oregon. She has to take one away from Obama and do really well in her base states and win relative toss ups also.

[democrattotheend]

3. That sounds about right

Although I think if she trounces him in PA he might have a problem.

[loveangelc]

5. I really think she needs an upset. She cannnot just win states she's expected to win at this point.

[helderheid]

8. I heard she needs 60%+ in all remaining to win.

[jackson_dem]

7. I agree and Oregon is definitely a possibility. NC, not so much due to demographics

[KAZ]

13. Sorry Tom. I have a lot of respect for you, but unless there..

.. is something far bigger that Wright waiting in the wings, you're whistling Dixie.

[Tom Rinaldo]

17. I can live with an Obama win

I would like to think the same is true in reverse for those now supporting Obama - and if Obama becomes our nominee rest assured that I will be urging Clinton supporters to get behind him.

The thing about primaries is that, at the end of the day, we get vote tallies to look at. Whatever the prospective odds may seem to any of us to be, they become moot when the actual votes come in. My point on this thread was simply that I don't see NC as a must win for Clinton under certain otherwise very favorable circumstances, though she still would need to do rather well there regardless.

[KAZ]

19. Got your point, and it makes sense. I'm not wedded to my ..

.. candidate because he is, after all, just another candidate. I'm a little jacked right now, in that he may just rock the down-ticket vote. Then again, he may fall apart.

Clinton is a safe 48%, with negative down-ticket help (IMHO). Obama is a riskier 43-55%, with a chance to reshape the Congress. After the last 8 years of hell, I think now may be the best time to roll the dice.

[movonne]

2. I thought she had lost...why do they keep this shit up...even if she

wins every one she loses...

[MannyGoldstein]

4. Earth To Stephanopolis: It's Already Over

Does that fellow need remedial math?

[jackson_dem]

6. The pro-Obama corporate media is playing a cute game. They know she has little chance in NC

Why? Since O will get 90% of the black vote all O has to do is get about 33% of the white vote to win. Clinton has only gotten 70% of the white vote in three or four states out of 42. They are setting her up to fail so they can demand what they have wanted for over a year: their candidate to be crowned.

[loveangelc]

9. lol.

[jackson_dem]

11. Steph KNOWS she has a 10-20% shot in NC

Why is he and other corporate media whores setting a standard they know she is unlikely to meet? Too bad. She probably would have won NC if the msm did its job and didn't let O swiftboat the Clintons on race.

[loveangelc]

12. He said that Democratic superdelegates were thinking this..

Harold Ford said whoever wins NC will be the nominee. Chuck Todd said if he wins one or both he'll be the nominee. I think it's just the superdelegate thinking. She is behind on everything, she can't just win states she's expected to win...sorry.

[WillYourVoteBCounted]

36. true. Its like PA should be good for Hillary, NC should be good for Obama

living in NC, I believe that its too hard to tell how it will go,
in spite of the polls.

There are alot of Hillary offices in our state.

But there are alot of Obama offices in our state.

His commercials remind people of the date to register, and
encourage them to go vote. the commercials tell people WHEN to vote,
(we have early voting here)

We still have some Dixiecrats, and there still may be a few holdouts
in the black population who fear that a black man cannot be elected.

I expect Hillary to win PA by about 5 points, and Obama to win NC by 5-8 points.

[loveangelc]

10. werent you the one just saying she had a good chance of winning NC from her PA momentum?

[jackson_dem]

16. Until I did the math. She needs about 70% of the white vote to win NC--unlikely

Since O will get 90% of the black vote, which is about 1/3 of the Dem primary in NC.

[loveangelc]

18. it's over.

[jackson_dem]

20. That is another netroots "fact". The superdelegates have not gotten the memo

They could end this tomorrow if they came out for Obama.

[loveangelc]

22. Or they could wait until May or June to do that, which is what will likely happen.

[jackson_dem]

23. What is the point? Allow a divisive primary to continue for 2 months for no reason?

[loveangelc]

24. Let Hillary feel as if she was allowed to compete.

[jackson_dem]

26. And divide the party over one person's feelings?

[loveangelc]

27. well if she wins nc she's back in the game. they want to wait and see how that goes.

they won't divide the party long enough for hillary, which for her would be august.

[jackson_dem]

34. No, even with NC she has no shot at catching up in pledged delegates

Unless Obama gets indicted or something that drastic occurs. If it is "over" as Obamites say they would have made it over by ending it. Clearly the supers think what happens in the remaining states, what we learn during that period, etc. matter and won't automatically be bound by the pledged delegate count...

[loveangelc]

35. Well I'm just telling you what a newsreporter and what I'm hearing from different

reporters who know superdelegates...she needs to win NC.

[WillYourVoteBCounted]

37. Her PA momentum won't affect NC, Obama had serious endorsements months ago

Both Dem candidates for Governor have long since endorsed Obama.

Several Mayors.

One Congressman has openly endorsed, it is expected the Dem Delegation will.

Many candidates have been fearful of Clinton on the top of the ticket, as
it would drive GOP turnout and possibly cause an upset in Nov,
killing our Dem majority in the state legislature, and even
stick us with a GOP Governor.

[Lerkfish]

15. so now they're "setting her up to fail"

they're all against her! If she loses they'll say she lost! how misogynist is that to demand accurate math?

[BlueIdaho]

14. Don't forget Puerto Rico!

Of course its gonna be a lot harder to drag those goal posts through the Bermuda Triangle!

[C_U_L8R]

21. It's just about too late

The Clintons are on a raft ride down the inevitable swirling vortex of doom.

[Catherine Vincent]

25. Hillary has to pull "an" upset in NC.

:hi:

[loveangelc]

28. haha thank you. it's too late to edit

[demasiado]

29. Upset in NC is impossible

She lags in NC by double digits or more. Not happening.

[Melynn]

30. Hillary may not win in Pennsylvania

Last I heard the race was tight in Pennsylvania. If she doesn't win the Keystone State the race is over. I think that even Hillary will have to admit that truth at that point.

She has no chance to win NC. The race is just about over.

[slinkerwink]

31. interesting the goalposts have been moved to NC, a likely Obama state

[Alexander]

32. George Snuffleupagus doesn't realize Hillary will drop out if she loses Pennsylvania.

[raqi]

33. George is the geekish, less offensive version of Tweety

But, the bigger issue is, who really cares what any of these mouthpieces think? Part of the problem with this country is that a large number of Americans have become lazy 'followers' (of pundits, celebs, etc.), not passionate, informed, leaders (of their own thoughts, ideas, opinions, etc).

How many has been politicos with few options but to become pundits (part of the leech family tree which includes the wealthy, talk show hosts, talentless celebrities, etc.) does it take to screw in a lightbulb?

Answer: They don't care, cuz they're able to walk home with their inflated paychecks by screwing us.