In The End, Superdelegates Will Vote Almost Unanimously For Obama

[TheDoorbellRang]

I thought this guy's reasoning made quite a bit of sense, and of course I'm totally objective. :D

In The End, Superdelegates Will Vote Almost Unanimously For Obama

Posted by Ashish on 04.08.2008

Why the final delegate tally won't even be close...

For all the talk about the role of superdelegates in the Democratic race this year, ultimately, they won't play much of a factor beyond cementing Barack Obama's win beyond a shadow of a doubt. Currently Hillary Clinton leads among superdelegates, 251 to 222. But the key way to look at it is how have superdelegates gone since Clinton's "inevitable" status disappeared? Afterall, most of her 251 superdelegates jumped on board a very long time ago (prior to Iowa even) when they assumed she was going to win. Since February 5th, Obama has gained 69 superdelegates while Clinton has lost two.

And the reason even more superdelegates haven't jumped on the Obama bandwagon, as The Field mentioned, is because Clinton is expected to win Pennsylvania. A superdelegate endorsing Obama now risks having their endorsement seem worthless when Obama likely loses PA. So instead, most are probably waiting until after PA votes, so they can endorse Obama in the lead up to North Carolina, a state he will win big, and thus have their endorsements look that much better.

The majority of remaining undecided superdelegates will either endorse after PA and prior to NC or in June after the last vote is cast, and expect virtually all of these superdelegates to vote for Obama.

And in the end, Clinton won't even be left with the 251 superdelegates she has now. Many of those 251 are Clinton loyalists and won't switch to Obama publicly, but when the games are finally over and everyone knows that Obama will be the Democratic nominee and the Clinton era is officially over, a big chunk of those 251 will switch when the time to vote comes. Remember, those 251 superdelegates are politicians first, and politicians always put their own careers about whatever else. When the time comes to get on the good side of the man who will be the new leader of the Democratic party and could be the next President of the United States, most will get in line with everyone else.

Sure Clinton will hold on to 50-100 of her loyalists until the bitter end, but any fantasy that this thing will be a close finish is just that, a fantasy.

http://www.411mania.com/politics/columns/72648

[AX10]

1. Let us say she wins PA 15-20 points.

That is a massive win. Won't those SD's have to consider that before endorsing in the run up to North Carolina?

[thereismore]

5. Possible but unlikely. nt

[newmajority]

6. And let's say I win the Powerball Lotto

Hell, my odds are better.

[AX10]

7. Answer the question.

[TheDoorbellRang]

11. Probably. You know, it would really suck being a super D this year

I thought this guy's take on how and when the super D's would jump was interesting because it's a little different than my theory, but as you say, which is better for a super delegate to do? Endorsing before an assumed loss, or after a loss and before an assumed win? All the while knowing that a brazillion people are watching your decison under the microscope of the internet. Heck, DNC super D's from Montana make the headlines here at DU when they endorse. Any other year, and before the internet, super D's just blithely did their thing in relative anonymity. The pressures on them this year must be intense.

I would not want to be a super D this year. :scared:

[AX10]

12. SD's must be done away with.

[TheDoorbellRang]

19. I wouldn't be surprised if this year doesn't produce some big changes

Too many people have been really paying attention this year and not liking what they're seeing. The last time people were watching this closely was back in '68. The debacle that year -- when the party bigwigs overruled the "will of the (loudest) people," the primary system as we now know it was instituted.

I've been reading "Team of Rivals," and it's very peculiar reading about the convention where Lincoln was nominated. The whole process was entirely what we now call super D's -- the party had complete say and the voters none. So we've come a long way, but there's a way to go.

[Hippo_Tron]

32. I can't believe we actually agree on something

[Hugabear]

20. You mean like she was always expected to?

You act as if somehow Hillary winning PA by 15-20 points would be some huge breakthrough.

Nevermind that the very next contest in North Carolina, Obama is expected to have a similarly huge win.

But I'm sure we'll hear some reason why the PA primary is so important, whereas NC doesn't really matter too much.

[EmperorHasNoClothes]

23. Why do the results from one state trump the previous 47 contests?

[Gore1FL]

29. That really isn't all that "massive" though in terms of what she needs

a 60-40 victory nets her 32 pledged delegates, and takes 158 of the remaining 566 off the table in the process. She would still have to win the rest of the contests by margins of over 70% to tie. she needs to win every remaining state by 20%-30%, including PA to come close enough to make a realistic argument, and she is behind in a number of them.

130 may not seem like a lot of delegates, but the numbers left are few and that gap equals 22% of the 566 pledged delegates remaining. Likely Obama will gain at least 1/3 (of the 32 she would gain in the above scenareo) back in NC, as well and take another 115 out of the mix. (and that assumes a PA bounce for Clinton closed the gap in NC by 1/2)

that would be roughly a gap of 110 with 293 remaining or about 37% of the total she would need to win.

Even being generous, she would have to win every other state after that by 50% to close the gap.

She may be more like Rocky that she wishes. She may go the distance, but ultimately, she is too far behind in points to win.

[Hippo_Tron]

33. It depends on what expectations are

If polls show it dead even and then she pulls out a 15-20 point win, that will help her going into NC. If polls predict a 15-20 point win and she just meets expectations, that's a different story.

[ORDem]

36. No, that's not a massive win. It's one state and the delegate gain by Hillary would be too little.

We don't elect/nominate someone based on which state voted last. Put down the kool-aid and back away from the glass. :)

[Double T]

2. Delusional BO supporters and their irrational forgone conclusions.

BO is on his way out with defeat in the the coming primaries for the remaining states.

[GarbagemanLB]

3. speaking of delusional...

[newmajority]

9. Do they hand out official Hillary bongs now in the DLC boiler rooms?

Because you gotta be smoking some good shit!

[Double T]

15. I would NEVER have anything to do with the DNC, DLC, or........

ANY other capital "D" party affiliates or organizations. Only a 'd'emocrat HERE; sorry to disappoint.

[AX10]

22. Same here.

[Double T]

28. REAL democrats don't need 'the Party'.

Glad to KNOW I'm NOT alone.

[IDemo]

14. Delusional and irrational? Kettle...

[roguevalley]

17. i suppose you are including nc in this tally? You would have to be

dreaming to think that Obama won't destroy NC.

[TheDoorbellRang]

21. Ah, grasshopper. No irrational numbers were used in the math that defeats Hillary

;)

[Voltaire]

27. Which still won't put Clinton ahead

Thanks for playing

[Colobo]

4. To think they will vote for Hillary is simply to fool oneself.

[JimGinPA]

8. I Believe It's Very Likely They Move Rapidly To Obama After PA...

She's either going to win by a small margin and not pick up more than a handful of delegates or she loses and it's over.

[phrigndumass]

10. Good read, TDR. Kicked & Rec'd

If Senator Obama comes close in Pennsylvania, many SDs will sieze the opportunity to endorse him. The only question is whether it will be a drip, a trickle or a flood.

:thumbsup:

[TheDoorbellRang]

16. I'm betting on a steady trickle

Here's my theory.
Just another deskchair pundit. :hi:

[phrigndumass]

18. A steady trickle would work just fine

... just like it has worked fine for two months now!

:dunce:

[AllentownJake]

13. As long as 30% of them

Vote for Obama...he wins

[TheDoorbellRang]

24. Yup. 30% of the remaining super D's

It's that cut and dried. :D

[mtnsnake]

25. After PA I think Obama will lose 65% of his super delegates to Hillary, maybe even more

after she re-gains that all important momentum. Look out here she COMES yeah

[Yael]

30. You win!

:rofl:

[Symarip]

26. I wonder if Super Delegates don't count to Clinton? (nt)

[samsingh]

31. too soon to say

[Awsi Dooger]

34. On Intrade, Obama is roughly an 85/15 favorite to win majority of super delegates

Based on the same rationale as the OP. I think it's very sound.

I tried to get a decent price on Obama winning the super delegates but it was already above my bargain point weeks ago, so I passed.

[SunsetDreams]

35. K&R

The wind doth bloweth Obama's way :)