CNN: Clinton's lead nearly gone, lead down to 4 pts.

[ericgtr]

He's making a slow and steady gain, with less than two weeks to go I think he stands a chance of a narrow victory.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/04/10/polls-clintons-lead-down-to-4-points-in-pennsylvania/

Polls: Clinton's lead down to 4 points in Pennsylvania

(CNN) — Sen. Hilary Clinton's lead over Sen. Barack Obama in the crucial primary state of Pennsylvania has dwindled to 4 points, a CNN average of recent polls calculated Thursday shows.

The New York senator now holds a 4 point advantage over her rival for the Democratic presidential nomination, 46 to 42 percent. Twelve percent of likely Democratic voters there remain unsure.

Recent CNN "poll of polls" suggest the race in Pennsylvania is tightening before the state's April 22 primary. A poll of polls calculated two days ago showed Clinton with a 6 point lead in Pennsylvania, and a poll of polls last Friday showed her on top by 11 points.

“Obama is outspending Clinton by better than two to one on television ads in Pennsylvania,” said Alan Silverleib, CNN’s senior political researcher. “Combine that with Clinton’s recent misstatement over her 1996 trip to Bosnia and the escalating chorus of voices calling on her to withdraw from the race, and you get a much tighter contest.”

Thursday's poll of polls included recent surveys from Time Magazine, American Research Group, and Quinnipiac University.

Edit to make title more descriptive

[Radical Activist]

1. That's the pattern in every state and it tells us who can defeat McCain.

Obama will gain against McCain while Hillary will never be higher in the polls than the day she announced her campaign. Never.

[underpants]

2. Have I alredy missed the Clinton campaign saying that Pa was not that important?

or is that coming ?

[ericgtr]

3. What we can expect from her campaign: "If Obama doesn't win by 20 he's lost!"

:rofl:

[underpants]

5. .

[WillyT]

16. They Kind Of Tried That...

Clinton Camp: It's A Miracle We're Not Behind In Pennsylvania

Link: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/09/clinton-camp-its-a-miracl_n_95883.html

Precious quote:

"If Senator Obama is not able to win Pennsylvania with all the resources he has thrown at the state... it will again demonstrate that he has serious problems winning the large states and closing the deal with voters," said Clinton's spokesman Howard Wolfson. "We all know that the road to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue runs through Pennsylvania. If Sen. Obama, outspending us three to one in the state, is unable to win Pennsylvania it would be another sign that his campaign is not the best to face Sen. McCain in the fall."

:shrug:

[ericgtr]

24. It's also a miracle that Obama raised the funds to outspend her from regular people

and not fat cats who have dropped their funding for Hillary. They are obviously broke and spinning this but that's the reality, Obama has run a clean and effecient campaign while her's go hit by a meteor.

[ORDem]

40. Yep, you got it! It will go something like this...

"... the people of Pennsylvania have clearly said that I (HRC) have the momentum and should be the nominee ."

Just like when she put out that condescending "dream ticket" crap, saying that "clearly" OH voters wanted her on the top of the ticket, and apparently the rest of us were just supposed to fall in line.

:spank:

[DefenseLawyer]

4. Not yet

but she has been saying lately "I have always said Pennsylvania would be a close race". Riiiiight.

[underpants]

6. ..

[TomBall Democrat]

13. Hillary is working on the speech now...

I would have won PA, but Barack's pillow was softer than mine.

And people like him more.

They send him more money.

WAAAAHHH!!!!!

[Lerkfish]

33. the precursor: "I don't pay attention to polls", followed by:

"we're more concerned about the next race (insert state's name here)"

followed by:

"This state doesn't matter"

followed by:

"all these voters are latte drinkers anyhow"

[underpants]

42. As noted above

[Lerkfish]

43. I know, I was just enhancing your point

I don't make the points, I make them better.

Beatrice

[jordi_fanclub]

7. And the article illustration of PANIC is...

[crankychatter]

14. omg, that's art

yup

[Debi]

8. Tweety said it - if she wins by even one vote the confetti will fall

Of course, Tweety is dead to the campaign now so maybe I shouldn't have posted this x(

[crankychatter]

19. yes, it will be a mandate from the people

she'll be calling for Obama's withdrawal

[Barack_America]

9. B-but that's not how a certain deceased President interpets them AT ALL!

Clearly Clinton's dwindling lead in PA must spell disaster for Obama and resurrection for Clinton.

Must...cherrypick...crosstabs....

[crankychatter]

10. New voters not polled, 12% undecided, 2+ weeks to go. 4%+/- Error Margin

yup

[hisownpetard]

11. That's incredible, esp. since a month ago, she had a 20% lead in the polls...

but that was back when she still believed the polls.

Now, she doesn't pay any attention to them.
Neither does Bush.

Hmm...

[PBS Poll-435]

29. Pay attention to his number....

38%-44% is where he has been stuck for a month.

Obama should pull out of the Pennsylvania quagmire.

[PseudoIntellect]

56. That's simply false.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_democratic_primary-240.html

He was stuck on around 36 for a while. Since the very end of March, he's gotten over the hump of 40%, and is now getting around 42/43 in a lot of recent polls. Expect that to grow as the primary nears. He has proven he has the capability to narrow the gaps.

[PBS Poll-435]

12. And Obama's solid support

is unchanged in a month of campaigning...

38%-44%

Just where is that Ad money going?

[SoonerPride]

15. I'm thinking split decision: lose popular vote by 4% but win more delegates

Anyone else think this is a real pssibility?

[TomBall Democrat]

17. We like the way that worked out IN

TEXAS!

[PBS Poll-435]

20. Fortunately for Hillary --

No crockasses in PA. Oops, I mean caucuses.

[PBS Poll-435]

18. Nope

You don't win more delegates with 38%-44%.

Unchanged after a month of tv ads.

[ericgtr]

21. I don't care how you spin it the reality is 20 a month ago and 4 now

if you want to see polls that actually favor Clinton then head on over to AOL.

[PBS Poll-435]

26. What is 20?

His number has not increased in a month. How is that spin?

[sniffa]

25. *SQUAWK*

[PBS Poll-435]

27. That is a magnificent bird. Thanks

Made my day!

And BTW... Obama is 44! Stuck at a 44% ceiling in PA!

[sniffa]

35. *SKIP*

[PBS Poll-435]

37. LOL...

I have to do something to mirror the endless parroting on your side. That something would be *facts.*

[OneSelf]

46. And BTW... Obama is 44!

Agreed!
:toast:

[roguevalley]

38. I will remember these posts. :)

[PBS Poll-435]

41. When what happens?

When Obama gets blown out by 14 points instead of 16?

[Zachstar]

47. SoonerPride, Anything under 5 percent means he has a chance to have a net delegate gain.

Depends on how many delegate rich counties he wins.

Overall he has a higher chance to have a net delegate gain for April than he is to win the popular vote in PA.

However, Do not give up hope! Work like you want to turn it into a win!

Please Phonebank and if possible donate to Obama everyone!

[JBoy]

22. Obama campaign needs to put some effort into setting expectations

Hillary has won control of the goalposts in previous contests. The Obama campaign needs to talk more about Hillary's deficit in pledged delegates, and how she would need a HUGE win in PA to make any inroads. Reset the perception of a Hillary win by anything less than 15% as a "loss".

[cooolandrew]

23. Given PA's size each percent is very significant.

[4_Legs_Good]

28. The Polls that are moving are the polls that always move and that are always WRONG!

Sure there's an indication of some closing, and as an Obama supporter, I'm glad to see it, but I think setting expectations high is a big mistake. PA is a Clinton state, and I expect she'll take it by at leas 10 points. Check the polls that tend to be correct.

Do as well as possible in PA, but know that this battle goeson far beyond this Clinton bastion.

David

[Orsino]

30. A victory would surprise me...

...but yeah, they are two very popular candidates nationwide, and he is slowly becoming more popular.

[samsingh]

31. anything close in support is a victory for Obama. No?

[ericgtr]

32. Yes but Hillary's campaign will spin it as they have all along when they are down

The constant nudging of goal posts and downplaying of their chances.

[Eurobabe]

34. I agree with you and the Philly exburbs will push him over the top. n/t

[ClayZ]

36. K and R

[liberaldem4ever]

39. K & R!!

[catgirl]

44. Way to go PA!!!

[DrFunkenstein]

45. The Mark Penn Meltdown and Bill Clinton's Pro-Colombia Split Don't Help

But mostly, I think it is just a matter of voters getting to know Obama. And in race after race, the more they know Obama, they more they want to pull the lever for him.

[Hepburn]

48. Gawd, let him whip her ass.

This NEEDS to be over. Each day it goes on means one day less to use to defeat McCain.

[Zachstar]

50. I urge you to change the subject Hepburn

You know the Clinton supporters will be on you in seconds saying you are sexist.

I suggest "Gawd, I hope he defeats Clinton in PA!!!"

[Hepburn]

52. Oh, yeah, I forgot....

...only women have asses, right? So that is now a sexist word! :hi:

[Zachstar]

54. Don't ask me I am just giving you the heads up.

[GarbagemanLB]

55. Kinky, but I'd be happy with a simple victory.

[Zachstar]

49. Good to see this!

Overall it seems he wears her lead down by half a percent every day which is perfectly fine as if he can keep it under 10 percent then Clinton will not net many delegates.

GOBAMA!!

[Zachstar]

51. Kick

:kick:

[TexasObserver]

53. Yeah, but if Obama doesn't eat her liver, SHE WON!!

The next meme from Wolfson.

[nebula]

57. Nice

[quantass]

58. k&r

[TexasObserver]

59. The problem is the machine will cheat for her.

Obama has to win by 5 points to get the victory, because Rendell et al. will steal 5% of the vote in various unsavory ways, like disqualifying ballots for specious reasons in key Obama strongholds.

[futureliveshere]

60. Wohoo, but lets not count our chickens before they hatch.