He weighed both weighed and unweighed ststistics and every posible scenario. It is quite lengthy, but here it is. The bottom line is that there is no way Hillary can win. I expect he will post newer numbers after PA.
phrigndumass
Mon Mar-31-08 05:50 PM
Original message
THE MATH – Monday, March 31 – After Texas Counties
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THE MATH – Monday, March 31 – After Texas Counties
6:00 p.m. Eastern Time (US)
Delegates needed to win nomination – 2,023.5 (considering status quo)
Pledged Delegates in – 2,669.0 of 3,235.0 – 82.5%
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THE MAGIC NUMBER
Here’s what we have after considering the information in the Polls section below:
Senator Obama’s Magic Number – 88 of 310 remaining superdelegates needed, or 28.4%
Senator Clinton’s Magic Number – 241 of 310 remaining superdelegates needed, or 77.7%
The Huckabee Index – 69 or 22.3% of remaining superdelegates needed
The “Huckabee Index” is the number of any combination of superdelegates and convention/caucus delegates that the Obama campaign needs (or the Clinton campaign loses) to make it mathematically impossible for the Clinton campaign to win the nomination, based on current delegate count and polls for upcoming contests. (Disclaimer: This is meant to poke fun at Mike Huckabee, not Hillary Clinton)
Details in spreadsheet:
http://www.box.net/shared/gr4wooy040 ********************************************
TOTAL DELEGATES
Estimated Total Delegates as of March 31:
Hillary Clinton – 1,505.5 (518.0 short)
Barack Obama – 1,646.5 (377.0 short)
Remaining Delegates – 877.0
(Sources: NBC, Wikipedia 3/31/08)
Wikipedia link:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_2008_Democr... SUPERDELEGATES
Superdelegates (highest reported for each candidate):
Hillary Clinton – 255 (Source: NBC 3/31/08)
Barack Obama – 228 (Source: NBC 3/31/08 plus NC-6)
Remaining Superdelegates – 311
PLEDGED DELEGATES
Estimated Pledged Delegates as of March 31:
Hillary Clinton – 1,250.5
Barack Obama – 1,418.5
Remaining Pledged Delegates – 566.0
(Source: Wikipedia 3/31/08)
OVERALL CONTESTS WON
Hillary Clinton – 15
Barack Obama – 30
PRIMARIES WON
Hillary Clinton – 12
Barack Obama – 16
CAUCUSES WON
Hillary Clinton – 3
Barack Obama – 14
BLUE AND RED STATES WON
Hillary Clinton – 6 Blue, 8 Red
Barack Obama – 11 Blue, 16 Red
POPULAR VOTE (for informational purposes only)
Total weighted* popular vote as of March 31:
Barack Obama – 15,802,692 (+1,755,095)
Hilary Clinton – 14,047,597
*Weighted popular vote adds primary votes and 5.5:1 skew of caucus votes
Status Quo unweighted as of March 31:
Barack Obama – 13,679,402 (+821,164)
Hillary Clinton – 12,858,238
(Source: Wikipedia 3/31/08)
Primaries only (Status Quo) as of March 31:
Barack Obama – 13,208,232 (+614,296)
Hillary Clinton – 12,593,936
Caucuses only weighted* popular vote as of March 31:
Barack Obama – 2,594,460 (+1,140,799)
Hilary Clinton – 1,453,661
*Weighted popular vote adds primary votes and 5.5:1 skew of caucus votes
Caucuses only (Status Quo) unweighted total caucus votes as of March 31:
Barack Obama – 471,170 (+206,868 caucus votes)
Hillary Clinton – 264,302
(IA,NV,AK,AS,CO,ID,KS,MN,NM,ND,NE,VI,WA*,ME,HI,TX*,WY,Guam)
With Florida only added, weighted as of March 31:
Barack Obama – 16,378,906 (+1,460,323)
Hillary Clinton – 14,918,583
With Florida only added, unweighted as of March 31:
Barack Obama – 14,255,616 (+526,392)
Hillary Clinton – 13,729,224
With Michigan only added, weighted as of March 31*:
Barack Obama – 15,802,692 (+1,426,786)
Hillary Clinton – 14,375,906
*Uncommitted – 238,168 (Michigan only, Obama wasn’t on the ballot)
With Michigan only added, unweighted as of March 31*:
Barack Obama – 13,679,402 (+492,855)
Hillary Clinton – 13,186,547
*Uncommitted – 238,168 (Michigan only, Obama wasn’t on the ballot)
With Florida AND Michigan added, weighted as of March 31*:
Barack Obama – 16,378,906 (+1,132,014)
Hillary Clinton – 15,246,892
*Uncommitted – 238,168 (Michigan only, Obama wasn’t on the ballot)
With Florida AND Michigan added, unweighted as of March 31*:
Barack Obama – 14,255,616 (+198,083)
Hillary Clinton – 14,057,533
*Uncommitted – 238,168 (Michigan only, Obama wasn’t on the ballot)
********************************************
SUPERDELEGATES NEEDED IF REMAINING PLEDGED DELEGATES ARE 50/50 SPLIT
All scenarios (2 through 9) showing Florida or Michigan being seated as is or holding new elections have been removed.
Hillary Clinton needs #/% of remaining superdelegates if remaining pledged is 50/50:
1. Status Quo – Clinton needs 236 of 311, or 75.7% of remaining SDs
10. FL Half-count, MI not seated – Clinton needs 232 of 312, or 74.2% of remaining SDs
11. FL not seated, MI Compromise – Clinton needs 224 of 323, or 69.2% of remaining SDs
12. FL Half-count, MI Compromise – Clinton needs 220 of 324, or 67.7% of remaining SDs
Barack Obama needs #/% of remaining superdelegates if remaining pledged is 50/50:
1. Status Quo – Obama needs 95 of 311, or 30.4% of remaining SDs
10. FL Half-count, MI not seated – Obama needs 112 of 312, or 35.7% of remaining SDs
11. FL not seated, MI Compromise – Obama needs 99 of 323, or 30.5% of remaining SDs
12. FL Half-count, MI Compromise – Obama needs 116 of 324, or 35.6% of remaining SDs
The “Florida Half-count” would net 52.5 pledged delegates for Senator Clinton and 33.5 pledged delegates for Senator Obama. The “Michigan Compromise” would net 83.0 pledged delegates for Senator Clinton and 73.0 pledged delegates for Senator Obama.
********************************************
SUPERDELEGATES NEEDED IF REMAINING PLEDGED DELEGATES ARE 55/45 CLINTON
All scenarios (2 through 9) showing Florida or Michigan being seated as is or holding new elections have been removed.
Hillary Clinton needs #/% of remaining superdelegates if remaining pledged is 55/45:
1. Status Quo – Clinton needs 207 of 311, or 66.4% of remaining SDs
10. FL Half-count, MI not seated – Clinton needs 203 of 312, or 64.9% of remaining SDs
11. FL not seated, MI Compromise – Clinton needs 195 of 323, or 60.2% of remaining SDs
12. FL Half-count, MI Compromise – Clinton needs 191 of 324, or 58.8% of remaining SDs
Barack Obama needs #/% of remaining superdelegates if remaining pledged is 55/45:
1. Status Quo – Obama needs 124 of 311, or 39.7% of remaining SDs
10. FL Half-count, MI not seated – Obama needs 141 of 312, or 45.0% of remaining SDs
11. FL not seated, MI Compromise – Obama needs 128 of 323, or 39.5% of remaining SDs
12. FL Half-count, MI Compromise – Obama needs 145 of 324, or 44.6% of remaining SDs
The “Florida Half-count” would net 52.5 pledged delegates for Senator Clinton and 33.5 pledged delegates for Senator Obama. The “Michigan Compromise” would net 83.0 pledged delegates for Senator Clinton and 73.0 pledged delegates for Senator Obama.
*********************************************
FLORIDA AND MICHIGAN SCENARIOS REGARDING PLEDGED DELEGATES
These are the possible scenarios concerning Florida and Michigan, and what it would require for Senator Clinton to catch up to Senator Obama in pledged delegates. These scenarios are for pledged delegates only. Superdelegate counts are not included. The presumption here is that most remaining superdelegates will support the candidate who wins the most pledged delegates from the state and territory contests. (Note: All scenarios (2 through 9) showing Florida or Michigan being seated as is or holding new elections have been removed.)
The “Florida Half-count” would net 52.5 pledged delegates for Senator Clinton and 33.5 pledged delegates for Senator Obama. The “Michigan Compromise” would net 83.0 pledged delegates for Senator Clinton and 73.0 pledged delegates for Senator Obama.
The current status quo is: Neither Florida nor Michigan’s slate of delegates are seated. (See more below this section for information about what the “status quo” is)
Scenario 1 – Status Quo (without Florida and Michigan)
CLINTON NEEDS 64.8%, OBAMA NEEDS 35.2%, in all remaining contests
Scenario 10 – Florida Half-count, Michigan not seated
CLINTON NEEDS 63.2%, OBAMA NEEDS 36.8%, in all remaining contests
Scenario 11 – Florida not seated, Michigan Compromise
CLINTON NEEDS 64.0%, OBAMA NEEDS 36.0%, in all remaining contests
Scenario 12 – Florida Half-count, Michigan Compromise
CLINTON NEEDS 62.3%, OBAMA NEEDS 37.7%, in all remaining contests
********************************************
POLLS FOR UPCOMING CONTESTS, USED TO DERIVE THE “MAGIC NUMBER”
Polls have been released for some of the upcoming contests. Where no polls are available, I have marked it as “No Poll” and used a 50/50 calculation for that contest’s pledged delegates. Obviously this information will change, and I plan on updating these calculations whenever we have new or updated polls.
Pennsylvania (April 22)
American Research Group (3/27) has Senator Clinton at +12.0%
http://americanresearchgroup.com /
Guam (May 3)
No Poll
Indiana (May 6)
USA Election Polls (2/18) has Senator Obama at +15.0% (This was after Super Tuesday)
http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/indiana.html North Carolina (May 6)
Public Policy Polling (3/31) has Senator Obama at +18.0%
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_0331... West Virginia (May 13)
Rasmussen Reports (3/20) has Senator Clinton at +28.0%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics... Kentucky (May 20)
No Poll
Oregon (May 20)
Outdated Poll (before Super Tuesday)
Puerto Rico (June 1)
No Poll
Montana (June 3)
Outdated Poll (before Super Tuesday)
South Dakota (June 3)
No Poll
If anyone has links to new or more recent polls, please share. Thanks!
********************************************
MEMO FROM DNC DATED MARCH 5 REGARDING FLORIDA AND MICHIGAN
This is quoted here to show the current “Status Quo” used in the figures above.
Democratic National Committee’s official stance on Florida and Michigan as of March 5, in a press release from Howard Dean:
"We're glad to hear that the Governors of Michigan and Florida are willing to lend their weight to help resolve this issue. As we've said all along, we strongly encourage the Michigan and Florida state parties to follow the rules, so today's public overtures are good news. The rules, which were agreed to by the full DNC including representatives from Florida and Michigan over 18 months ago, allow for two options. First, either state can choose to resubmit a plan and run a process to select delegates to the convention; second, they can wait until this summer and appeal to the Convention Credentials Committee, which determines and resolves any outstanding questions about the seating of delegates. We look forward to receiving their proposals should they decide to submit new delegate selection plans and will review those plans at that time. The Democratic Nominee will be determined in accordance with party rules, and out of respect for the presidential campaigns and the states that did not violate party rules, we are not going to change the rules in the middle of the game.”
Source:
http://www.democrats.org/a/2008/03/dean_statement_45.ph... (emphasis mine)
********************************************
BROKERED CONVENTION
Feel free to share your thoughts and concerns about a possible brokered convention this year. I’d love to hear thoughtful conversation from all sides.
Link here from wikipedia:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brokered_convention ********************************************
OFFICIAL DELEGATE SELECTION RULES FOR THE 2008 DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL CONVENTION
The link below takes you to the pdf file from the Democratic Party with the official rules for this year’s primary season.
Link here from democrats.org:
http://s3.amazonaws.com/apache.3cdn.net/de68e7b6dfa0743... .
********************************************
Links to the spreadsheets (feel free to download and create your own scenarios):
1 – Current Figures:
http://www.box.net/shared/bmi4rvqscs 2 – Magic Numbers:
http://www.box.net/shared/gr4wooy040 ********************************************
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