Fat Lady Rising: Why Obama Should Win PA

[tiptoe]

Fat Lady Rising: Why Obama Should Win PA
TruthIsAll     http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/GallupPA.htm

April 10, 2008

The Fat Lady is getting ready to sing.

Obama has a good chance of clinching the nomination by winning the PA primary. Why?

1) his surge in national and PA polls,
2) over 10% of voters are undecided,
3) large increase in Democratic (mostly young) voter registration in the Philadelphia area.

Clinton has been well-known since 1992, while Obama became a national figure in 2004. Therefore, Clinton can be considered as the incumbent. Historically, challengers have won 75% or more of the undecided vote, especially when the incumbent is unpopular – and Clinton's negatives are much higher than Obama's. Assuming Obama wins 75% of the undecided vote in PA, Clinton’s current 7% average polling margin is reduced to 2%. If Obama continues to close the gap, he should win PA – but only if the votes are fairly counted.

Obama currently leads Clinton by 1415-1253 in pledged delegates. For Clinton to catch Obama, she needs 64% of the vote in the remaining primaries. On Feb. 20, Clinton led Obama by 81 super delegates (246-165). She now leads by 255-228. Obama has gained 63 (88%) and Clinton 9 (12%). If Obama wins 50% of the remaining pledged delegates, he will need just 96 (31%) of the 311 remaining uncommitted super delegates to clinch the nomination.

But it's by no means a done deal. The media won't talk about this:
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008PrimariesLinks.htm

The Excel Delegate Calculator projects final pledged and super delegates.
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/DelegateCalculator.htm

National Trend
Gallup Daily Tracking Poll

Pennsylvania
Polling data from RCP
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_democratic_primary-240.html

PA 5-poll moving average ()

Super Delegate Trend ()

Gallup Tracking Poll
Event                  1-day *             3-day MA      
                     BO     HRC           BO     HRC 
              3/8    49     44            49     44
                     47     46            48     45
                     45     45            47     45
                     52     47            48     46
                     53     40            50     44
Wright flap 
              3/14   42     51            49     46
                     49     44            48     45
                     44     46            45     47
                     39     51            44     47
                     43     50            42     49
Obama speech 
              3/19   47     43            43     48
                     45     48            45     47
                     52     44            48     45
                     44     46            47     46
                     45     45            47     45
SniperGate           
              3/25   52     47            47     46
                     47     40            48     44
                     51     39            50     42
                     51     49            50     43
Casey endorsement 
                     54     38            52     42
  
              3/30   48     42            51     43
                     45     55            49     45
                     54     41            49     46
                     48     42            49     46
                     45     49            49     44
PennGate      
              4/4    54     41            49     44
                     48     48            49     46
                     54     40            52     43
                     51     41            51     43
                     48     42            51     41
  
              4/9    51     43            50     42

*Calculated

[democrattotheend]

1. I wish I could believe that

But undecideds have not been breaking for Obama this year...especially not in Ohio, which is pretty similar to PA. I predict Clinton will win by 11.

[BumRushDaShow]

5. PA has 3 times the number of colleges and universities that Ohio has

so the 2 states don't compare when it comes to this new voter demographic that has been very active and vocal for Obama. Only the western side of the state is similar to Ohio. People keep ignoring the east and particularly Philadelphia, which more often than not, can produce turnouts that throw the entire state. This is what threw PA to Kerry in 2004 and helped to throw Santorum out of office. Ohio has nothing that compares to a Philadelphia (and Ohio's largest city, Columbus, is less than half the size of Philadelphia).

[grantcart]

6. You raise a good point

Clinton, to my surprise did very well in last minute deciders in Ohio, Texas and of course New Hampshire.

However there is a new element and that is that a larger and larger majority of democrats (including a plurality of Clinton supporters) believe that Obama will be the nominee. At some point their will be a sentiment that it is time to vote to end it and Obama will get a higher percentage of the undecideds. In other primary states Obama got a majority of late deciders.

[tiptoe]

42. April 15 -- 'mixed effect of the "bitter" comment'

source: http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/GallupPA.htm (April 15)

The short-term effect of the “bitter” comment flap is mixed. Obama has increased his lead in the 3-day Gallup Tracking Poll, while Clinton has increased her lead in the Pennsylvania 5-poll moving average.

On March 15, at the height of the Rev. Wright flap, Clinton led Obama in PA by 53-36. Exactly one month later Clinton still leads by 51-41. In March, Clinton led Obama nationally by 49-42 in the Gallup poll, but Obama now leads by 51—40.

The Obama speech defused the Wright controversy. Hillary decided to promote the fiction of ducking Bosnia sniper fire — which backfired when photos proved it was all a sham. Then Senator Casey came out for Obama. So did the well-respected Bill Richardson, who was promptly called a “Judas” by James Carville, a Clinton DLC hack. Finally, Clinton’s campaign advisor Mark Penn was found lobbying in Columbia for free trade, contra to Clinton’s stated position. But who still believes her? After all, Bill Clinton has also lobbied for free trade (and made a few bucks doing it) with Columbia. When Hillary was asked about Bill’s Columbian cash, she had no rational response — just a trademark cackle.

It has not been a good month for Clinton.

Obama has a chance of winning the PA primary based on the following:

1. his increasing share in national and PA polls,
   
2. the majority of the 10-12% undecided voters should break for Obama,
   
3. the large increase in Democratic urban voter registration is not reflected in the polls,
   
4. the Casey (D-PA) and Rooney (Steelers president) endorsements,
   
5. his big edge in advertising cash,
   
6. Teamsters and other union endorsements

...

PA Primary 5-poll Moving Averages ()

National Trend

[tiptoe]

43. Bloomberg/LA Times, 4/15, PA Primary: Undecided-12%

-------------- Pennsylvania Democratic Primary Voters -----------
  
           PADEMV MALE FEMALE 18-44 45+ DEM IND WHITE NON/WHT
Clinton        46   40     50    37  52  47  40    52      28
Obama          41   50     36    48  38  41  53    36      57
Someone Else    1    1      -     -   1   -   -     -       1
Don't Know     12    9     14    15   9  12   7    12      14

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/bloomberg_la_times_poll_0410_14.pdf

[tiptoe]

46. April 16 -- Clinton leads PA by 7 points, down 2 (5-poll MA)...Reuters-Zogby: Obama 51-38 nationally

source: http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/GallupPA.htm (April 16)

The short-term effect of the “bitter” comment flap is mixed. Obama has a national lead of 8 points in the Gallup Tracking Poll, a 3-point decline from the previous day. Clinton has a 7-point lead in the Pennsylvania 5-poll moving average, a 2-point decline.

At the height of the Rev. Wright flap on March 15, Clinton had a 49–42 lead in the Gallup poll; Obama now leads by 50–42. At that time, Clinton also led in PA by 53–36; she currently leads by 48–41.

The Reuters-Zogby poll just released gives Obama a 51–38 lead.
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSN1619209020080416

The Obama speech defused the Wright controversy. Hillary decided to promote the fiction of ducking Bosnia sniper fire — which backfired when photos proved it was all a sham. Then Senator Casey came out for Obama. So did the well-respected Bill Richardson, who was promptly called a “Judas” by James Carville, a Clinton DLC hack. Finally, Clinton’s campaign advisor Mark Penn was found lobbying in Columbia for free trade, contra to Clinton’s stated position. But who still believes her? After all, Bill Clinton has also lobbied (very lucratively) for free trade with Columbia. When Hillary was asked about this, she had no rational response — just her trademark cackle.
...

PA Primary 5-poll Moving Averages ()


National Trend

[tiptoe]

48. PPP weekly PA polls: Obama 45 -43 (today)...Clinton 46 -43 (last wk)..."no ill effects of 'bitter' "

source: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_041608.pdf (April 16)

Clinton, Obama remain in statistical tie

Raleigh, N.C. – For the third week in a row Public Policy Polling’s survey of likely
voters in the Pennsylvania Democratic primary shows a statistical tie between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.

Obama has 45% to Clinton’s 42% in this week’s survey. Clinton led 46-43 a week ago
and Obama was up 45-43 two weeks ago.

Obama’s increase in support since last week comes from small gains across the board.
He’s cut Clinton’s margin with white voters, expanded his advantage with black voters,
reduced Clinton’s lead with women, and increased his percentage of the male vote.

“PPP has been in the field now in both Pennsylvania and North Carolina since Obama’s
‘bitter’ remarks and has seen no ill effects for Barack Obama,” said Dean Debnam,
President of Public Policy Polling. “It doesn’t appear the Clinton campaign has been able
to gain any momentum with this issue.” ...

[tiptoe]

49. The Undecideds -- by region as per pollster PPP, 3 weekly measures:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5533940&mesg_id=5533940

[KittyWampus]

2. sorry, undecideds will break for Clinton.

[Barack_America]

11. Not necessarily.

In Wisconsin and the Potomac Primary, the undecideds broke very strongly for Obama. The difference in Ohio and Texas? That NAFTA-gate BS.

Honestly, we'll have to wait and see how the press shapes up next week in order to get a sense of which way the undecideds will go.

[barb162]

17. I think so too.

[tiptoe]

41. alternative link for "undecided vote" in OP:

undecided vote

(server changes this morning rendered original link inoperable...maybe will eventually be fixed)

[leftofcool]

3. Keep dreaming

[tiptoe]

40. Prediction: "I may be wrong, but...for Tues, 4/15, Obama’s current 10% Gallup lead will jump to 13%

or more." -- TIA. (i.e. at the national level)

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/GallupPA.htm (Apr 14 update)

[rinsd]

4. Very funny citing ARG by that TS'ed nutjob.

Very funny in fact for him to select the poll with the worst track record, cherry pikcing it among 5 more recent polls with better track records.

[tiptoe]

9. That "nutjob" has three degrees in mathematics. How many do you have?

He forecast Kerry the winner in 2004 and exposed and explained the "http://organikrecords.com/corporatenewslies/beginner_v2.htm#04FIN_EP04FIN_EP">Smoking Gun" impossibility that is the 2004 Final National Exit Poll. He also forecast that 2006 election fraud would cost the Democrats 10-to-20 House seats.

You can see his work here:
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/TruthIsAllFAQResponse.htm

(With an overview and TofC here )

[rinsd]

10. I need 3 degrees in math to see a nutjob cherry picking polls to demonstrate what he wants to show?

But be a good toadie, run along and tell you master what I have said so he post some diatribe on another website.

[barb162]

19. If he forecast Kerry the winner in 2004, that shows his work aint so hot.

Unless I'm missing who's in the White House these days.

[goclark]

24. Diebold put that criminal in the WH

[tiptoe]

30. what you may be missing

is an appreciation of the standard procedure that election night exit-pollsters follow for "Forcing" (a term of art) the "Final" Exit Poll to Match the Recorded Vote Count, in contrast to methods used for the earlier, three preliminary exit polls. The Final "poll" flipped the preliminary exit poll results from Kerry to Bush.

Click "Exit Polls" from the top-menu uf the Guide below.

See also http://organikrecords.com/corporatenewslies/beginner_v2.htm#ElecFraudAnaly

[foo_bar]

26. you're sounding a bit like the ex-DUer him/her/itself

three degrees in mathematics. How many do you have?

- "tiptoe", you are here.

three degrees in mathematics. How many do you have?

- "TruthIsAll", http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x594344#595446 (8/2004)

For anyone unfamiliar with the TIA hoax:

I have also used this method to calculate the probability that
1- at least 15 JFK witnesses would meet unnatural deaths in the year following the assasination.
2- at least 16 world-class microbiologists would meet unnatural deaths in a 4 month period following 9/11.
3- The probability that at least a certain number of people would suffer from mad cows disease in a specific geographic area in a given year.

In each case, the probabilities were close to zero.

In the 2002 election, the odds are less than 1 out of 43,000 that the results were due to chance.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=4057474#4062833

7/21/2004 KERRY WIN PROBABILITY: 97.4%, 329EV, 52.92%

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x583266 (7/2004)

see also:
http://inside.bard.edu/~lindeman/TIA_FAQ/faq-intro.html

[Awsi Dooger]

29. TIA has admitted he cherry picks

That was evident when I joined DU in late 2002. Jiacinto called him on it. I called him on it. Countless others. His math is excellent but the conclusion arrives long before the numbers. In '04 he gave Kerry a 99.99% win probability.

Here's a post by foo bar, a TIA collection in which TIA described his methods:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=104&topic_id=4057474&mesg_id=4062833

I hope TIA is in good health and frankly I never understood why he was tombstoned here, but this label earns a warning sign. In '04 too many tunnel vision DUers fell for the 99.99% bunk, making the aftermath even worse than it should have been.

[tiptoe]

31. How would you assess the array of sources used here? Any 'cherry-picking'?

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/PreElectionConfirmation.htm

[rinsd]

32. Then let's discuss the OP.

He cherrypicks ARG which simutaneously is the worst pollster this primary season and has the race the closest (a tie).

Why? Because none of the other pols work for his model, he needs the tie to start.

Even stating Obama is gonna take 80% of undecideds ignores what has happened this primary season.

In short, TIA may be a great mathematician but his theories are full of shit.

[tiptoe]

39. He could have "cherry-pruned" the SUSA (+18) --an outlier? --from RCP's avg advantage for HRC.

But he seems not to have done so. The next few days should tell if it (as well as ARG's +20) is an outlier.

The Undecideds are still fairly high in many of the polls.

The Intrade gang won't let themselves be misguided. (Or will they?)

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_democratic_primary-240.html

[tiptoe]

47. New PA Cherries: SUSA(sponsored)-Obama -14...PPP(non-sponsored)-Obama +3...Reut/Zogby-BO +13 natl nt

[AtomicKitten]

7. Hey, it could happen.

:hi:

[Coexist]

8. I wish this could be true - because it would end this thing once and for all

but my gut says this is Texas again.

[KAZ]

12. Fat Lady Rising? Wait, is this another poem thread?

[Andrew99]

13. All Obama has to do is keep it close

Remember Obama does not have to win PA. His delegate lead is 138, therefore he simply needs to keep the loss in single digits.

[Blondiegrrl]

50. You're right. Although if Obama were to win PA, I think the superdelegates

would force Clinton out.

[durrrty libby]

14. Way off base

[ORDem]

15. K & R

:kick:

[barb162]

16. He's advertising/outspending Clinton like crazy in PA and still not polling well

He'll lose PA.

[stillcool]

28. Of course he is outspending her...

she's got no money. Since the beginning of this Primary Season Senator Clinton was favored to win in every state. And then a funny thing happens when Obama campaigns..in state after state, the polls get closer. As a result, Senator Obama has won more delegates and the popular vote. No spin...Fact.

http://www.electiondefensealliance.org/

[Lucky 13]

44. He's polling GREAT and has closed her 20+ pt gap.

In one poll today he is now AHEAD.
AND, she was just BOOED by union workers for bringing up bittergate.

Saying bullshit over and over and over doesn't make it true.

[IsItJustMe]

18. Yes he can.

[barb162]

20. No he can't.

[PseudoIntellect]

23. He can win PA. Not likely, but more likely than HRC winning the nomination.

[Life Long Dem]

21. Step aside, someone is coming through... you sir!...out of the way!..

Coming through... coming through! Like a locomotive!

[BenDavid]

22. fat lady rising? what, did obama lay hands on her and she is

rising from the grave? wow.....oh with obama's mystical powers the fat lady might rise, but HRC is gonna make her sing for obama.....

[liberaldem4ever]

25. Awesome-K&R!!

:bounce: :kick:

[eridani]

27. I'm still betting on a narrow win in PA for Clinton

That, of course, won't help her chances at all.

[tiptoe]

33. updated nt

[tiptoe]

34. april 12 update available at source link nt

[tiptoe]

35. April 13 updated, commentary and polls and an HRC cackle

updated source link: http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/GallupPA.htm

[taterguy]

36. Hillary is not fat

And only a misogynist would imply that

[Blondiegrrl]

51. I dunno. Perhaps it was insinuating that Obama is effeminate.

:+

[NC_Nurse]

37. I'm hoping so.

:)

[tiptoe]

38. April 14 update, Gallup one-day national at 54 - 38 BO, new PA poll ARG 57-37 HC

source link updated: http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/GallupPA.htm

The short-term effect of the “bitter” comment flap is unclear. According to the 3-day Gallup National Tracking Poll, Obama is still leading Clinton by 50-40, after winning the Saturday polling by 54-40 and a whopping 54-38 on Sunday, April 13.

But ARG just came out with a PA weekend poll shocker: Clinton leads by 57-37. ... Is ARG an outlier? We will know in a few days.

In the middle of March, at the height of the Rev. Wright flap, Clinton led Obama by 53-36 in PA and 49-42 nationally (Gallup). Today, less than a month later, Clinton leads in PA by 48-40 (including the latest ARG poll), a 9-point decline in margin. And Obama now leads nationally by 50-40, a 17-point decline. What caused the change? It appears that the Clinton campaign self-destructed, at least prior to the “bitter” flap which has yet to play out. ...

National Trend

Gallup Tracking Poll
Event                  1-day *             3-day MA      
                     BO     HRC           BO     HRC 
...
SniperGate           
              3/25   52     47            47     46
                     47     40            48     44
                     51     39            50     42
                     51     49            50     43
Casey endorsement 
                     54     38            52     42
  
              3/30   48     42            51     43
                     45     55            49     45
                     54     41            49     46
                     48     42            49     46
                     45     49            49     44
PennGate      
              4/4    54     41            49     44
                     48     48            49     46
                     54     40            52     43
                     51     41            51     43
                     48     42            51     41
  
              4/9    51     43            50     42
                     54     41            51     42
The Bitter Truth
CackleGate
              4/11   42     42            49     42
              4/12   54     40            50     41
              4/13   54     38            50     40

*Calculated

[slinkerwink]

45. you're wrong. Clinton will win because of undecided voters.

In the last two days of a primary, Clinton unleashes a kitchen sink attack that moves undecideds her way.

[tiptoe]

52. wrt Undecideds, see #49 and link to "undecided vote" in OP. nt.

[ORDem]

53. K

:kick: