Could Obama win in the Deep South....?

[adoraz]

...if Rice is McCain's VP?

Think about it. Yes, right now he loses by double digits in most of those states.

Even though he is down, it is obvious he has a very strong base.

I don't know much about Rice, but I am assuming that many white Southerners do not like her.

Rice won't steal away any of Obama's base in those states (there would be no reason for black Democrats to switch over).

Rice of course has 2 traits many southerners hate and won't vote for:
-shes a woman
-shes black

Republicans are well aware McCain could easily die in office, and if he does that would mean a black woman would be President.

I can honestly see enough Republicans in the South sitting out or going third party rather than voting for McCain and a black woman. Maybe even some who are more sexist than racist would vote Democrat, or vote Democrat in protest.

If Rice is VP, I believe Obama could win the Deep South. I find it hard to imagine a Democratic black man winning there, but I find it just as hard to see a black woman winning (even though she is conservative).

Thoughts on this?


***note: I know many white southerners aren't sexist or racist, however the polls don't lie and its obvious that there is a very significant portion of people like that there. I live in NC and most people I know aren't sexist or racist, but I certainly know a few Republicans who won't vote if Rice is VP. Keep in mind, NC is in the South but it isn't nearly as bad as the states below it, and I come from the most educated part of the state.

[FrenchieCat]

1. Rice will not be the nominee, because McCain needs economics, not more warmongers on the tix.....

They are just floating that out there, for reasons obvious, to herald to the nation that Republicans are not racists or sexists like the Democratic Party is showing itself to be.

However, at the end of the day, they will pick a conservative and attractive tall young White man who does well in the southern states, period.

[adoraz]

2. yeah I don't think she will be VP either... its too bad

Obama would have a much better chance of winning I believe if Rice was VP. Sadly, I don't see it happening.

If it does though, things would be great for Democrats. Thats why I posted this, just speculation on what would happen.

[MADem]

3. He couldn't win in the deep south, generally speaking, if Rice was NOT McCain's VP.

Overwhelming primary victories aside that don't reflect the true demographics of those states, the GOP still rules most of those states.

No Republican is going to vote for Condi Rice. They don't like gays, publicly, anyway, and they think she is one. It's a stupid topic that is being floated, just to keep McCain's name in the news and to suggest that he's so "diverse" he'd actually pick the WORST member of Bush's cabinet as his VP, just because she's black and female.

And way too many people bit that hook.

[adoraz]

6. I know he won't win the Deep South if Rice isn't VP

thats the point of this topic. it would be amazing if Rice was VP, because Obama could very easily win the South.

[Zynx]

4. We're not winning a single one of those states period in a straight up match up.

Not a chance. Against Romnitron we might have had a chance, but not now.

[adoraz]

8. I don't mean to sound harsh,

but did you even read the thread? I addressed that at the beginning.

Do you really think white Southerners would vote for a black woman? don't you think theres at least a good chance many would sit out or go third party?

[Zynx]

10. Only if a strong third party existed. These are the same states that mostly voted

for a Catholic in 1928 over a Republican because they hated Republicans just that much. I read what you wrote and I am just making the point the Republicans would have to run a liberal black woman at the top of the ticket to possibly cost them those states.

[adoraz]

11. what if a strong third party candidate ran?

I forget his name, but wasn't a white male who appeals to Conservatives running this year?

If he runs, do you think Obama would have a chance in those states?

[Zynx]

12. In short, no.

You are talking about Bob Barr, but he does not have much pull with conservatives anymore.

My problem is the margins we have to overcome. They are all in excess of 16 points. Those aren't exactly small.

[adoraz]

14. alright, well it looks like we disagree on this

One last thing to consider though, many white Southerners are against affirmative action. They will obviously see this as just that since there are obviously candidates more deserving of the position than she is.

They voted for third party candidates before (nearly costing their party the election), I can easily see them doing it again but this time with more of them doing it.

You are right though, the margins are very big.

Most of the new polls from the states were right after Wright though, so I don't think the margins are as bad as they were saying a couple weeks ago. Before Wright, he was only down by about 14% in places like Alabama.

[Zynx]

19. 14% is more than we won virtually any state by in 2004. Only New York, Rhode Island,

Vermont, DC, and Massachusetts voted for Kerry by bigger margins than 14%. That's a big margin to close in the GE.

[kwenu]

5. Rice said she is going back to Stanford. I believe her.

[book_worm]

7. will Hillary win the deep south? or for that matter IA, WI, MN, OR, WA, CO, NM?

states where Obama is ahead or tied with McCain and Hillary is running behind him.

[adoraz]

9. what does that have to do with anything?

[Justitia]

13. Don't buy the hype. The GOP would never let her on the ticket.

But, then again, I have the sneaky feeling that they "gave" this election to McCain because they know they are going to lose it anyway, so why not let him have the booby prize?

Sooo...maybe they WILL let her be on the ticket w/McCrazy because they know they're getting their asses kicked in November anyway. Could be good cover, but it's disgustingly transparent.

[adoraz]

15. well right now they are dead even in the polls

so I don't think they are thinking that yet, but I do believe they are very worried. :)

[PVnRT]

16. For one, Rice will not be the VP pick

The poster above is right, she brings nothing to the ticket.

Two, I don't think he can win much of the South (and neither can Hillary), but he should make things interesting enough to make the GOP divert resources down there.

[Texas Hill Country]

17. actually, most white southern republicans love her. lots.

[goldcanyonaz]

18. The South was last won by Jimmy Carter in 76 and he was from Georgia.

Not since then has any of it been blue.

[jackson_dem]

20. Obama will loses the South 153-0, 173-0 if you count the border states like WV and KY

[depakid]

21. The same would be true for most Democrats

possibly even Al Gore....

[jackson_dem]

22. Clinton will win Florida, West Virginia, and perhaps even Arkansa (38 electoral votes)

Gore was a bad candidate. How did Bill Clinton do in the South?

[depakid]

24. Hillary isn't Bill

and there's no 3 way dynamic in the race.

The far right literally spent billions demonizing her- and they got a return on their investment.

I don't see how she'd fare any better than Obama in the South- though I suppose one could make some case for Arkansas.

[jackson_dem]

25. Yet she still leads in Florida and West Virginia and could put AR in play

FL+WV=32 electoral votes. Obama gets 0 in the South.

[Carrieyazel]

34. Clinton would never win Florida, WV or even Arkansas in November; these current polls are misleading

Those states are off the radar for either one. She's been away from Arkansas a long time now. Similar to Gore and Tennessee. As soon as McCain starts general campaigning in those three states, Hillary falters.

[mrreowwr_kittty]

23. I think she's a little too socially liberal for their tastes.

Not sufficiently fetus-worshipping and doesn't hate teh gayz enough.

[Warren DeMontague]

26. For whatever reason, these things never show up on some folks' radar.

Condi and Colin are PRO CHOICE. NO ONE pro-choice is getting anywhere near the GOP Presidential Ticket.

This is why you had all sorts of puffed-up "conventional wisdom" waterheads so confused when "Front Runner" Rudy Guiliani got his hat handed to him. :eyes:

[AlinPA]

27. Pro-choice does not matter any more; they would just say that they "were converted" and

changed their view , just as Romney did. They could say "Jesus" or "God" a few times and all would be forgiven (while standing in front of a flag and addressing a fundamentalist Christian anti-gay rally).

[Warren DeMontague]

35. Not true. It was still a problem for Romney, and it sunk Guiliani, who couldn't run away from it.

If there is a long track record of making unequivocally pro-choice statements, a late game conversion looks too convenient.

[crankychatter]

28. Absolutely and here is why

Southern culture is the (albeit unwillingly) adoptive culture of African-American people. Although historically segregated by Jim Crow legislation, that segregation is different than the defacto segregation by covert means in the North. Southern whites live in close physical proximity to African American people and have daily, working relationships with them.

It is a proven fact that, given proper education, Southerners are more able to overcome culturally acquired racial prejudice than their northern, racist counterparts. It's believed that this is due to a traditional, cultural affinity.

There is a large number of African American people in the Deep South... in the cities the ratio is sometimes over 60/40. In the rural areas it can be as high as 40% African American.

We live in an Urban Archipelago per a study done by contributors to the Seattle Stranger in 2004. The red state/blue state paradigm is erroneous.

America is Purple.

Republican disaffection with the War and corruption of the last seven years is the most under-reported and underestimated story of the election.

Expect to win Louisiana, Missouri, Florida as well as some midwest states that have traditionally gone Red. In Kansas we have a Democratic Governor. Can you imagine Kansas?

I can.

[crankychatter]

29. one more thing, RE Rice and Black people

she is not a player, period.

respect for achievement and pride is one thing

identification and agreement is another

by the way, the presumption that African American people vote in a block based upon Race is false and derogatory.

people vote their interests

[Bullet1987]

30. I think Obama can be competitive in states with the largest Black

populations like South Carolina, Georgia, and Alabama. Whether or not he'll win is another thing. We've seen in the past how conservatives will do everything in their power to muffle the Black vote. They did it in Florida AND Ohio.

[crankychatter]

31. RE "the polls don't lie"... yes they do

The much touted, Mississippi Primary, racial demographic divide was almost entirely explained by the Limbaugh crossover effect.

When factored in, based upon polls, the margin was much narrower and less significant.

The MSM is predatory. Don't forget it.

The Race Gender focus is a distraction... a canard. The real issue here is the same as in previous elections. They will DeanScream and Jerry Brown Moonbeam, ANY candidate that does not take ALL the money. This influence of the Military Industry Complex and other Transnational Corporations on the editorial processes of the MSM is plain as day for anyone that wants to look.

They're protecting their interests and Obama is considered a loose cannon.

[madrchsod]

32. no

[Carrieyazel]

33. No way in hell Condosleeza is going to be even considered for VP

They're not that stupid. She is being called by some, the worst SOS in history. She's a disaster.
Camp McLame won't go anywhere near her.

But even if she was, how could Obama, a black man on the top of the ticket, benefit from racism towards a black female in the VP slot? The racism towards him running for the top slot would be much greater. The racists would hold their noses and go with McCain, and assure themselves that Rice won't ever be the President.

[cooolandrew]

36. We should stop emphasising the stereotype that's how he wins it.

[BenDavid]

37. go take a look at the 2004 election and you take a good hard

look at those red dumbfuckistan states in the south and tell me where obama will win....not miss. not ala. not jawjuh. not south carolina. not north carolina....not virgina....not tenn....not arkansas. not la.......not florida......

HRC will win the presidency by winning both florida and ohio......and of course those blue states need by all democrats to win.....she will not be going after those dumbfuckistan red states obama thinks he can change with the rising of his hands.....well what am i even saying this for. obama will not even be the nominee......

[stillcool]

38. Someone has to clue me in...

Instead of red states and blue states, can we do black states and white states? And maybe brown states?

[Hutzpa]

39. This does sounds like

a tactical move, but reminds me of playing Russian
roulette.

It takes a highly strategical and innovative intuition
to pull this off.